Smart CFB- 2008 SEC Preview (West Division)


Alabama Crimson Tide (7-6, 4-4 in 2007, 5th place in SEC West)

 

The Nick Saban-era at Alabama looked as if it was going to push the Crimson Tide right back onto the national stage in a hurry. After pulling off a mild upset of #16 Arkansas with a late comeback in their third game of the season, the Tide were ranked #22 in the country, heading into their showdown with the Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia won that tightly contested battled 26-23, but the Tide rebounded and found themselves 6-2 after beating Tennessee 41-17 in their best game of the 2007 season. A loss to LSU started a four-game losing skid, which included defeats to Mississippi State and most inexcusable, Louisiana-Monroe. Thirteen members of Tide return from their 7-6 team a year ago, and will hope to take the next step towards returning to SEC supremacy.

 

Offensive Outlook: It’s all about John Parker Wilson for the Alabama offense in ’08. The senior quarterback has had a career full of mixed results, and his inconsistency has made him a villain in Tuscaloosa at times. Incoming freshman Julio Jones could make a huge difference in the passing game, which should also open up more holes for the returning RB tandem of Terry Grant and Glen Coffee. Four of the five starters return on the offensive line, making Tide fans optimistic about their offense in 2008.

 

Defensive Outlook: Six starters return from last year’s stop unit, which could make for a year of learning for the Tide ‘D’. They’re not short on talent, but there are only two seniors projected as starters on the defense. Sophomore LB Rolando McClain will almost certainly be all All-SEC performer in ’08 as the catalyst in their 3-4 defense. Their secondary is thin, but does have an NFL prospect at safety in Rashad Johnson. Saban is high on sophomore cornerback Kareem Jackson.

 

2008 Preview: Alabama probably has the hardest schedule in the SEC West, and arguably has as difficult of a slate of games as Georgia does in the SEC East. There are cupcakes on the schedule, but games at Clemson, Georgia, Tennessee, and LSU probably won’t make for a fun season away from Tuscaloosa. The Tide needs to take care of business at home this year, as they will be sizeable favorites in all six of their home games leading up to the “Iron Bowl” against rival, Auburn.

 

2008 will be a success if… Wilson makes himself a hero in Tuscaloosa as opposed to a goon. Football is a religion in Alabama, and having the fans behind you is of paramount importance. If Alabama is going to upset any of the big boys in the SEC this year, Wilson must play at peak level.

 

There’s plenty of talent on this Tide team, and it would be a shock to not see them in another bowl game this winter. McClain and Jackson will build that Tide defense up over time, but 2008 doesn’t look to be the National championship year for Saban and the Crimson Tide.

 

Prediction: 7-5, 4th place in SEC West

 

Arkansas Razorbacks (8-5, 4-4 in 2007, 3rd place in SEC West)

 

Plenty of change is coming in Little Rock in 2008. HC Houston Nutt has moved on to Ole Miss, setting the stage for Bobby Petrino to make his triumphant return to college football after a disastrous thirteen games with the Atlanta Falcons. RBs Darren McFadden and Felix Jones were the pride and joy of Razorbacks football, but have both since departed for the NFL. In fact, only 11 starters return from last year’s team that pulled off the king of upsets in ’07, knocking off the LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge in the final game of the regular season.

 

Offensive Outlook: Poor Casey Dick has to be looking around and wondering what he did to deserve what’s coming to him in 2008. His best options last year were turning around and handing the ball to either McFadden or Jones. Both are gone. When he did throw the ball, he had four major targets outside of his two running backs. They’re all gone. His old head coach used to ask him to manage football games. His new head coach needs him to win them. Dick and freshman wide receivers Joe Adams and Carlton Salters will have to become good friends in a hurry. It should be running back by a large committee for the Razorbacks in ’08. Three starters return on the offensive line, which might be the only reason that Arkansas ever finds the end zone this season. If Arkansas averages half of the 37.3 PPG they averaged a year ago, it might be a good season.

 

Defensive Outlook: Only five starters return from a defense which allowed opponents to score 26.5 PPG a year ago. All of them comprise the front seven, which was a big disappointment last season. LB Freddie Fairchild was a highly touted recruit coming into Arkansas, but he hasn’t panned out as of yet. The secondary has absolutely no returning talent, but there are veteran juniors and seniors back there to help ease the transition to a defense which is only going to get younger in the years to come. There will be a ton of pressure on safeties Rashaad Johnson and Walter Leandre to perform.

 

2008 Preview: The good news is that the Razorbacks should start 2-0 with games against Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe. The bad news is that there may not be too many more wins on the schedule. Games against Texas, Alabama, Florida, Auburn, South Carolina, and LSU are all well out of Arkansas’ league, and expecting more than one win from that bunch of games is absurd. Don’t be certain that games against Kentucky, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Tulsa are “gimmes” either.

 

2008 will be a success if… Dick proves he’s a legitimate quarterback. Petrino’s past offenses at Louisville put pressure on the QB to take risks that turned into rewards. Dick has never had to do much in the Arkansas offense, which could make it a very long year for everyone in Little Rock.

 

Arkansas fans shouldn’t expect much from their Razorbacks in 2008. There’s just too much change for Petrino to overcome to take this team bowling once again.

 

Prediction: 4-8, 6th place in SEC West

 

Auburn Tigers (9-4, 5-3 in 2007, 2nd place in SEC West)

 

Tigers HC Tommy Tuberville took a bold risk before their bowl game with the Clemson Tigers. He installed a new spread offense that would run the hurry-up, and did so from the end of the regular season in time for their bowl game. The end result was a 23-20 victory over Clemson, which should bring all sorts of momentum into the ’08 season for Auburn’s program. Sixteen starters return from last year, and hopes are high that the Tigers can once again be in contention for the SEC crown.

 

Offensive Outlook: QB Kodi Burns got his first look at the new spread offense in the Chik-Fil-A Bowl against Clemson, and showed that with some work, the scheme will fit his skill-set perfectly. The sophomore will have big shoes to fill, as three-year starter Brandon Cox has departed. The rest of the offense is intact, including all of the starters, and several role players. RBs Ben Tate and Brad Lester should have their production cut into with the new spread attack, but should still play big roles in the offense. The offensive line will start to reap the benefits of starting youth, as three sophomores that started as freshman will join the other two returning starters up front. Many think that this is one of the best offensive lines in the SEC, and should be that way for a couple more years.

 

Defensive Outlook: The Auburn defense has always been fantastic, and 2007 was no exception. They averaged giving up a shade under 17 ppg, and held the mighty offenses of Florida and Arkansas to a total of 24 points. DE Quinton Groves will be missed, but the seven returning starters on the defensive side of the ball should uphold the tradition of strong Auburn defenses once again in ’08. The key position will be safety, where the Tigers will turn to two sophomores, Zac Etheridge and Mike McNeil to captain the secondary. The junior trio of DE Antonio Coleman, DT Sen’Derrick Marks, and LB Tray Blackmon are all NFL prospects, and should be the leaders of a young, yet talented squad.

 

2008 Preview: The biggest game of the season for the Tigers will come on September 20th when the LSU Tigers come to town. In all likelihood, the winner of that game will be the SEC West winner, as those two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the pack. If the Tigers can hold serve against LSU and Tennessee at Jordan-Hare Stadium in back-to-back weeks, we could have two unbeaten teams squaring off on October 23rd when Auburn travels to Morgantown to take on the Mountaineers. The season ends with games against #1 Georgia and at Alabama.

 

2008 will be a success if… Burns lives up to the hype. It’s going to be difficult, but Auburn has a chance to be a real threat for the National Championship this year. The pieces around Burns are all fantastic, but he will be the key in 2008.

 

Though Tuberville and the gang will probably slip up one too many times to win the National Championship, don’t be surprised if the Tigers still find themselves in a BCS game, whether it be as SEC champs, or as an at-large team. They can play with anyone in the nation.

 

Prediction: 10-2, 1st place in SEC West

 

LSU Tigers (12-2, 6-2 in 2007, 1st place in SEC West)

 

The defending National Champions were delivered a huge blow in their quest to repeat as BCS Champs in the offseason when QB Ryan Perrilloux was kicked off the team. Twelve starters return from last year’s team that survived a two-loss season, but there’s still plenty of talent on the field for the Bayou Bengals that could have them sniffing around for another run at the BCS in ’08.

 

Offensive Outlook: The quarterback position is still very much up in the air for the Tigers. Expect to see as many as four different players take snaps this season. Whoever it is under center will have a plethora of running backs to choose from that are all potential game-breakers. Keiland Williams, Charles Scott, and speedster Trindon Holliday are all amazing running backs with the ability to change a game when they touch the football. The top receivers are still intact, including Demetrius Byrd and Brandon LaFell. Four starters return on the offensive line, all of which are considered potential NFL prospects. The best of the bunch is senior LG Herman Johnson, who will likely be a first-day draft selection next year.

 

Defensive Outlook: Replacing Glenn Dorsey is going to prove nearly impossible, but the Tigers found ways to plug up holes when their stud defensive tackle was out of the lineup last season. Ricky Jean-Francois will do the honors filling in for Dorsey, but DE Tyson Jackson should help the transition. The secondary will be the biggest question mark, as the team will rely on three youngsters to fill holes. Freshman Patrick Johnson and sophomore Jai Eugene will be the starting corners, while sophomore Chad Jones is touted as the next in a long line of quality safeties to come out of LSU.

 

2008 Preview: For an SEC schedule, this isn’t so bad. The Tigers do have games in Auburn and in Florida to contend with, but they draw Georgia and Alabama at home, and don’t have Tennessee on their schedule. Their non-conference schedule is littered with cupcakes, including Troy, North Texas, Tulane, and Appalachian State, who likely won’t be pulling off another monumental upset again this season. If they can knock off Auburn in Jordan-Hare Stadium, there’s nothing stopping the Tigers from repeating as SEC West champs.

 

2008 will be a success if… the youngsters in the secondary can step in and keep the LSU defense dominant. The offense is going to be very vanilla with no experience at the quarterback position, so HC Les Miles is going to lean on his defense to win games. Johnson, Eugene, and Jones will have the weight of the world on their shoulders from the outset of the season, and will be tested against the spread attacks of Florida and Auburn in their two biggest games of the season.

 

With Perrilloux, LSU was head and shoulders above everyone in the SEC West. Without him, they’re still in the top-two, but their chances of repeating as National Champions look bleak.

 

Prediction: 9-3, 2nd place in SEC West

 

Mississippi Rebels (3-9, 0-8 in 2007, 6th place in SEC West)

 

Ed Orgeron is out as HC of the Rebels. Houston Nutt will replace him after a successful tenure at Arkansas. The good news for Nutt is that 16 returners should ease his transition to Ole Miss. The bad news is that the team went 0-8 in the SEC last season, and really wasn’t competitive in quite a few of those games. Nutt and the Mississippi fans expect much better from the Rebs in ’08.

 

Offensive Outlook: QB Jevan Snead has transferred from Texas to take over the Ole Miss offense. He’s a dual threat quarterback, and could be a terror on opposing defenses with his legs and arm. He’ll be helped by true freshman RB Enrique Davis, who was a top recruit this off-season. Seven starters will provide the supporting cast for Snead and Davis, including four starters on an offensive line that is one of the best in the SEC. The tackle combination of Michael Oher and John Jerry could pave a lot of holes for the rushing game this season.

 

Defensive Outlook: The defense surrendered 28.5 PPG a year ago for the Rebels, so the nine returning starters must step up their level of play if Mississippi believes they’re a bowl team this year. Six of the front seven in their 3-4 scheme return, including all four linebackers. Nutt is encouraged with the play of senior DT Peria Jerry. There isn’t a lot of depth behind the starters in the front seven, so keeping these guys healthy is very important. Perhaps the best player on the defense last year was safety Jamarca Sanford, who returns for his senior season.

 

2008 Preview: The SEC schedule will once again prove difficult, but the Rebels shouldn’t have another donut in their win column again this year in conference play. Games against Vandy, South Carolina, Arkansas, and Mississippi State are all winnable, and the non-conference schedule isn’t overbearing. A bowl game isn’t totally out of the question in Nutt’s first season.

 

2008 will be a success if… Snead and Davis live up to the hype. With Auburn switching to a spread offense, Ole Miss may have the best running game in the SEC West. Davis needs to have a 1,000-yard season. Snead will inevitably have ups and downs, but much like Vince Young did at Texas, expect to see him put the team on his shoulders and win games by himself if that’s what needs to be done.

 

Things should change in a hurry for the Rebels, and for the first time since the days of Eli Manning, expect to see Ole Miss competing in the SEC West.

 

Prediction: 7-5, 3rd place in SEC West

 

Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-5, 4-4 in 2007, 4th place in SEC West)

 

After a long few years of criticism, HC Sylvester Croom finally quieted his critics by leading the Bulldogs to an 8-5 season and a victory over UCF in the Liberty Bowl. For the first time since 1999-2000, Mississippi State will be out to reach back-to-back bowl games. Fourteen starters return to help Croom achieve that task.

 

Offensive Outlook: Wesley Carroll had a successful first year under center in limited duty for the Bulldogs, throwing for almost 1,400 yards and nine touchdowns. Once again, he won’t be expected to do much, as RB Anthony Dixon should carry the load for the offense in ’08. None of the wide receivers that are returning made a significant impact on the squad in 2007, but not much was expected out of them either. The offensive line will be crucial this season, as they return only two starters after LT Mike Brown was dismissed in the spring. If the OL can’t open up holes for Dixon and the running game, there’s no way that Mississippi State is improving on its 21.5 PPG average a year ago.

 

Defensive Outlook: After opening up the season with a brutal 45-0 loss to LSU, the Bulldogs turned it around at the end of the season, holding Kentucky, Alabama, Ole Miss, and UCF to a combined 43 points. Eight starters return from last season, and the unit must be productive to help out an offense that could struggle in ’08. There are two NFL prospects on this defense, LB Jamar Chaney and FS Derek Pegues. Both defensive tackles return, but both defensive ends must be replaced. Croom doesn’t have a lot of depth on his D-Line, so finding replacements at DE might be a difficult task. The secondary is intact after being the strongest piece of the defense’s puzzle last year.

 

2008 Preview: If the Bulldogs hope to go to another bowl game, they’d better win the games they really should win. Games against Louisiana Tech, Southeastern Louisiana, Middle Tennessee, and Vanderbilt are must-wins. There are plenty of other potential wins on the schedule, but the offense may not be good enough to stick with the middle-of-the-road teams in the SEC.

 

2008 will be a success if … the offensive line is as good in ‘08 as they were last season. If not, Mississippi State won’t average 20 PPG, and the team won’t stand a chance of competing in the rugged SEC.

 

The “Egg Bowl” between the Bulldogs and Ole Miss may be the game that decides whether or not Mississippi State goes bowling or not. Don’t be surprised if they get left home this winter.

 

Prediction: 5-7, 5th place in SEC West

Posted by Alex Smart on 27-08-2008 | No Comments

Alex Smart, The Smart Money, NCAA Football Comp Selection


Oklahoma State
Sat Aug 30 ‘08 3:30p

There are some key mismatches in this non conference tilt featuring Oklahoma State and their hosts Washington State . One of the most glaring of which comes via the Cowboys offensive line and the Cougars defensive line . With four key starters back for Oklahoma State I expect this big experienced group will step over and dismantle their opposition play after play, making for big gaping holes up the middle , that running backs Kendall Hunter and JUCO transfer Beau Johnson will exploit . I also expect lots of time for QB Zac Robinson to sit in the pocket and pick apart an extremely vulnerable Wazzu secondary. There is not doubt in mind, that the Cowboys are going to score points in bunches today.

Meanwhile, Washington State under new HC PaulWulff, comes into his first game , ready to fire back behind a shot gun offense, that is gearing up to play wide open football this season, in part because of their obvious defensive deficiencies. Oklahoma States pedestrian defense has proven itself to be equally inept , but with this tilt being so early in the season, the Cougars , who are still learning a multitude of new schemes , will be unable to consistently take advantage of the situation, which I believe will have them on the wrong side of the score when the final whistle blows.

Final notes & Key Trends: This is not a true home game for Washington State, as this contest will be played in Seattle. WSU has lost 25 of their L/37 SU against Big 12 opposition . The Cowboys when they have scored 28 points or more in a road game are a perfect 6-0 ATS L/6 winning those games by an average of just under 20 PPG.

Play on Oklahoma State -Projected score: Cowboys 38 Cougars 30

Posted by Alex Smart on 26-08-2008 | No Comments

Smart- CFL POWER POLL WEEK 10


1: Edmonton Eskimos (5-3/1-0) (5-2-1 ATS) (LW: 3) A 5-2-1 mark ATS and a 27-10 victory over the #1 team in the CFL Power Poll is more than enough to jump the Eskimos all the way up to the top spot this week. They easily covered the spread as six-point favorites against the Roughriders, and used a stifling defensive effort to hold Saskatchewan scoreless for the final three quarters and keep the game well under the closing ‘total’ for CFL bettors. QB Ricky Ray is making a good push for Most Outstanding Player honors, as he is second in the league in passing (2,584 yards) and has been the glue that has pushed the green and gold within a game of the Western Division lead.

 

Next up: Away @ Calgary (5-3)

 

2: Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-2/0-1) (6-2 ATS) (LW: 1) After back-to-back poor performances against Calgary and E

dmonton, it’s time to move the Riders out of the top spot of the poll. The offence was serviceable in the first quarter of their Week 9 betting affair, putting up ten points against the Edmonton defense, but they failed to score again after that. The 27-10 loss was the second consecutive game in which the Riders failed to cover the spread after six straight covers to start the season. It looks like Saskatchewan is set to turn to their fourth different quarterback of the year, as the team has traded for former Kansas State QB Michael Bishop, presumably to take over the reigns from Marcus Crandell, who has struggled since coming back from an injury a month ago.

 

Next up: Home vs. Winnipeg (2-6)

 

3: Montreal Alouettes (5-3/0-0) (5-3 ATS) (LW: 3) Montreal bettors hope that the Alouettes don’t change a thing going into the second half of the season. These next two games are huge for the Als, hosting the slumping Lions and Argonauts. If they can win both of these match-ups, they’ll be coasting towards an Eastern Division title after being 10-1 long shots to win the division at the beginning of the season.

 

Next up: Home vs. BC (4-4)

 

4: Calgary Stampeders (5-3/1-0) (5-3 ATS) (LW: 5) In their Week 9 betting match-up, the Stamps posted their most significant victory of the season, breaking a long hex of bad luck in BC Place with their 36-29 victory over the defending Western Division champs. They easily covered the spread as three-point underdogs, and their game-winning touchdown with inside 3:00 remaining pushed the game over the ‘total’. The Stamps can still be players for the Western Division title, but they need to at least manage a split with the Eskimos, beginning with their Labor Day Classic in Calgary on Monday.

 

Next up: Home vs. Edmonton (5-3)

 

5: British Columbia Lions (4-4/0-0) (3-5 ATS) (LW: 4) It appears as though the BC Lions are really in deep trouble after dropping into last place in the West following their 36-29 home loss to the Stampeders. For the second straight game, HC Wally Buono has pulled the plug on Jarious Jackson in favor of Buck Pierce, once again stirring up the controversy over which quarterback should be under center for the remainder of the season. If there’s good news for the slumping Leos, they’re still comfortably in the playoffs because of the crossover spot, and they’re still just two games behind Saskatchewan for the Western lead. They’ve got two road games against Eastern Division opponents this week, which could be the perfect remedy for moving back into the Western playoff picture.

 

Next up: Away @ Montreal (5-3)

 

6: Toronto Argonauts (3-5/0-0) (2-5-1 ATS) (LW: 6) While there is quarterback controversy throughout the rest of the CFL, the Argonauts erased all doubts about who their starting QB is when they used their bye week to deal Michael Bishop to the Saskatchewan Roughriders for a conditional draft pick. HC Rich Stubler has unconditionally turned the ball over to Kerry Joseph, the 2007 Most Outstanding Player, in hope that things will begin to turn around on Monday, when they head into Ivor-Wynne Stadium to take on the Ti-Cats as part of the Labour Day Classic.

 

Next up: Away @ Hamilton (2-6)

 

7: Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-6/0-0) (2-6 ATS) (LW: 7) Winnipeg is about set to embark on a stretch of games that will decide their season. They have back-to-back betting match-ups with the team with the best record in the CFL, then travel to Toronto and Hamilton. It is very possible that the Bombers could be 2-10 in another month, and if that’s the case, Winnipeg will certainly miss the playoffs for the first time since they were a part of the Western Division. HC Doug Berry still has his job, but the bye week made a good forum for fans all around Winnipeg to wonder why.

 

Next up: Away @ Saskatchewan (6-2)

 

8: Hamilton Tiger-Cats (2-6/0-0) (3-5 ATS) (LW: 8) Hamilton has had two weeks to prepare for their annual Labor Day Classic against the Toronto Argonauts, the only team in the CFL they have registered a victory against. Much like Winnipeg, it could be all over but the crying for the black and gold in these next three weeks. After hosting their provincial rival, they take on BC and Edmonton, and losses in those three games could leave the Tabbies at 2-9 and a long way behind the fourth place team in the West or Toronto for the final playoff spot. It would be a tremendous statement to beat the Eastern Division pre-season favorites for a third time this week.

 

Next up: Home vs. Toronto (3-5)

 

Posted by Alex Smart on 26-08-2008 | No Comments

Alex Smart, The Smart Money, MLB Member Selection


Minnesota Twins
Sun Aug 24 ‘08 3:35p
Yesterday, the LA Angels notched a 7-5 win against the the Minnesota Twins, after losing the first two games of this series by a 11-1 count. The feisty Twins prepare to get back in the positive side of score board when they send one of their most capable hurlers out to the hill .The Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Kevin Slowey (10-8, 3.78 ERA) , is in red hot form, after going 3-0 along with a minuscule 1.45 ERA in his L/3 starts, and has allowed 1 ER or less in 4 of his L/5 starts, for a 2.16 ERA in 33 2/3 innings. The control pitcher since starting his season 0-4, has been a very consistent contributor in his teams pitching rotation, and almost always gives them a chance at victory.

Meanwhile, his pitching opponent Ervin Santana (13-5, 3.39 ERA) despite of pitching decently has not received a decision in his L/2 starts. The Dominican Republic native has seen his team go just 6-13 in a expected pitchers duel, with a set total of 7 to 8.5 over the last couple of seasons, and Im expecting he will be on the wrong side of the ledger when the game comes to end .

Final notes & Key Trends: The Angels are 5-12 in Santanas last 17 starts vs. American League Central.
Play on the Twins

Posted by Alex Smart on 24-08-2008 | No Comments

Alex Smart, The Smart Money, MLB Comp Selection


Chicago White Sox (-133)
Sat Aug 23 ‘08 3:55p
The Chicago White Sox(73-54) have been a potent opponent for much of their current campaign , getting the job done, with some top tier pitching and consistent offensive explosions. That was not the case yesterday however, when they lost a 9-4 decision to Tampa Bay in the first game of this weekend set here in US Cellular Field, for their fourth straight loss in the season series. The Pale Hose will be primed for a rebound effort against the ace of the Rays rotation Scott Kazmir (9-6, 3.21 ERA). The hard throwing southpaw has not been his usual self , in recent outings, with his key pitches rarely hitting the strike zone, which has resulted in some shortened outings, which has seen him fail to make it past the the 5th inning in four of his L/5 starts. During a current three game span, he has garnered a uncharacteristic 5.28 ERA. That could mean big trouble, against a White Sox team that is 45-19 on the season at home while averaging 6 RPG. Meanwhile, the ChiSox will return fire with Javier Vazquez(10-10, 4.34 ERA). The right hander is in top form , pitching into the 8th inning in two consecutive starts and subsequent wins, allowing just 1 ER during that span . Final notes & Key Trends: The White Sox have faired well against hard throwing hurlers at home like Kazmir this season , that strike out an average of 5 or more batters per appearance, notching a solid 8-1 mark against the monyeline . White Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss. Look for the south siders to get the job done in this spot and post the W

Posted by Alex Smart on 23-08-2008 | No Comments

Smart-CFB SEC East Preview


Florida Gators (9-4, 5-3 in 2007, 3rd place in SEC East)

 

Gator-nation had to be disappointed with Florida’s 9-4 campaign and a loss in the Capital One Bowl in 2007. QB Tim Tebow became the first sophomore to win the Heisman Trophy last season, but he also feels as though the Gators have unfinished business coming into the 2008 season. Florida had plenty of things to be proud about in 2007, including embarrassing both Tennessee and Florida State by a combined score of 104-32, but the four losses are placed squarely on the shoulders of a defense that allowed both Georgia and Michigan to put up 40+ points on the scoreboard. Sixteen Gators return from last season, and anything less than another national title will be a disappointment in Gainesville.

 

Offensive Outlook: Just between Tebow and do-it-all Percy Harvin, the Gators have one of the most explosive offenses in the nation. Add on a rushing game that includes Emmanuel Moody and Keastahn Moore, plus one of the biggest offensive lines in the country, and HC Urban Meyer has the perfect recipe for not only one of the best offenses in the land in 2008, but one of the better offenses that college football has seen in recent memory. If there’s a dark cloud looming over Gainesville, it’s that TE Cornelius Ingram is out for the season with an ACL tear. For an offense that averaged 42.5 PPG a year ago, it’s scary to think that the Gators could post even bigger numbers in ’08.

 

Defensive Outlook: This will be the key to whether the Gators are going to win the SEC East or not. The defense had way too many lapses last season, frequently putting the offense in holes that were difficult to work out of. Last year the unit only returned two starters, but this year, eight will be back. Florida is young in their secondary rotation, with two sophomores and a number of juniors, but they are incredibly deep with talent, and most of the players have gained some level of experience from previous seasons. The defensive line won’t be the same without DE Derrick Harvey, but both Carlos Dunlap and Jermaine Cunningham should be able to fill in his production.

 

2008 Preview: Meyer has to have his sights set on four games that could spoil his undefeated season in 2008. Games at Tennessee and Florida State are always difficult, but there is no doubt that the Gators will be the better team on the field in both instances barring a rash of injuries. On October 11th, LSU comes to the Swamp for what should be a fantastic game, but if Florida gets past that, all eyes will be on the Cocktail Party in Jacksonville between the Gators and Georgia Bulldogs. There is a very legitimate chance that these two teams could be undefeated and ranked #1 and #2 in the country at that point in time.

 

2008 will be a success if… the defense doesn’t have any significant lapses. Though the Gators offense is phenomenal, the question marks are all on the defensive side of the ball. The Georgia running game blasted the Gators last year, and if the unit has too many games like that, Florida will be making another trip to the “lowly” Capital One Bowl this winter.

 

The Gators are for real this year, and though an undefeated season wouldn’t be overly shocking, don’t expect to see too many “L’s” on the schedule at seasons end.

 

Prediction: 11-1, 1st place in SEC East

 

 

 

 

Georgia Bulldogs (11-2, 6-2 in 2007, 2nd place in SEC East)

 

If you were to ask anyone affiliated with the Georgia Bulldogs what the one moment was in 2007 that stood out beyond all else, they will all give you the exact same answer. After scoring the opening touchdown against Florida, the entire team flew off the bench to celebrate in the end zone, setting a tone that would carry the Bulldogs to a 42-30 victory over their arch-rivals. Georgia rolled through the rest of their schedule, culminated by a 41-10 spanking of Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl.

 

Offensive Outlook: Eight starters return from a unit that put up 32.6 PPG in ‘07. There are two legitimate Heisman Trophy candidates on this unit. QB Matthew Stafford improved by leaps and bounds last year, and should improve upon his touchdown passes thrown. The better candidate might be sophomore RB Knowshon Moreno, who burst onto the scene when he ran for 188 yards and three TDs against the Gators last year. Moamed Massaquoi has had a productive career as a wide receiver, and will look to build his draft stock with an impressive ’08. A young offensive line looked to be strong coming into camp, but a season-ending knee injury to LT Trinton Sturdivant could be a huge loss.

 

Defensive Outlook: For as talented as the offense appears, the defense could be even better for the Dawgs. Nine starters return from their unit which held teams to a shade over 20 ppg in 2007. Geno Atkins and Jeff Owens are both forces on the defensive line. The secondary is young, but junior CB Asher Allen and safety Reshad Jones are both rock solid and should be able to keep the unit together. Obviously the more Moreno and the offense possess the football, the better shape these guys will be in.

 

2008 Preview: Without a doubt, the Bulldogs have the hardest schedule in the SEC and probably in all of college football. If Richt can pull off an undefeated season, the Bulldogs deserve to be named the national champions without playing in a title game. Difficult road games are all over the schedule, including dates in South Carolina, Arizona State, LSU, and Auburn. They also have to travel to Jacksonville for the annual Cocktail Party against Florida. They’ll have to protect their home turf against the likes of Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech. If by some chance Georgia gets all the way through that brutal stretch of games, their reward will be a spot in the SEC title game where they’ll likely have to fight off another stiff challenge from either Auburn or LSU.

 

2008 will be a success if… Richt can keep the team’s intensity up week after week. There are a number of potential hazards on this schedule, and the Bulldogs will have a massive bulls-eye on their back for as long as they hold the #1 ranking in the land.

 

This could be the best team in the nation, but there isn’t a team in the state of Georgia that can get through this schedule unscathed, and that includes the Atlanta Falcons.

 

Prediction: 10-2, 2nd place in SEC East

 

Kentucky Wildcats (8-5, 3-5 in 2007, 5th place in SEC East)

 

Give Wildcats HC Rich Brooks a ton of credit for righting the ship in Lexington and putting a winner back on the field. The Wildcats have posted back-to-back 8-5 campaigns after several dismal seasons. The biggest problem that Brooks will face in ’08 is the loss of his star QB Andre Woodson to the NFL. At one point last year, the Wildcats were thinking about spoiling the party in the SEC East after upsetting #1 LSU 43-37 in an overtime thriller. Four losses in five games down the stretch ruined that thought, but the program will bring momentum from their Music City Bowl victory over Florida State into ’08.

 

Offensive Outlook: Replacing Woodson will prove to be a nearly impossible task for either Curtis Pulley or Mike Hartline. The good news is that Derrick Locke and Tony Dixon are both back in the backfield, and should both have productive seasons. The duo combined for 932 yards and nine touchdowns a year ago, and that’s with Rafael Little rushing for over 1,000 yards as well. The Wildcats are very thin at receiver, only returning one starter from 2007, but the good news is that the offensive line returns three starters and should be rock solid.

 

Defensive Outlook: For a unit that allowed 29.6 PPG a year ago, the Wildcats have plenty of room to improve. There are three legitimate NFL prospects on this defense in DE Jeremy Jarmon, LB Braxton Kelley, and CB Trevard Lindley. The three must step up and command that the other eight on the field bring their level of play up with them for UK to stand any chance of competing in the difficult SEC East. Look out for sophomore LB Micah Johnson to have a tremendous season playing next to Kelley.

 

2008 Preview: The schedule does set up very nicely for Kentucky to make a bit of a run at the beginning of the season. If they can survive their annual meeting with Louisville in Week 1, they should easily be 4-0 heading into the SEC schedule. The bad news is that there probably won’t be many wins once the Wildcats reach that point. Games with Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee are all almost certainly losses, so the team must look to win games against teams like Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt if they think they’re going bowling for a third consecutive year.

 

2008 will be a success if… Locke and Dixon do enough to take the pressure off of whichever quarterback is under center. Expect to see a lot of erratic QB play from the Wildcats this year, so if they stand a chance, the running game must be a rock.

 

Eight wins is almost certainly out of the question for UK in ’08, so a more realistic goal will be becoming bowl eligible. Unfortunately, that isn’t a guarantee.

 

Prediction: 5-7, 5th place in SEC East

 

South Carolina Gamecocks (6-6, 3-5 in 2007, 4th place in SEC East)

 

The Ol’ Ball Coach, Steve Spurrier, is back for another season in Columbia, and his Gamecocks are quietly lurking around in the SEC East. Spurrier must demand more consistency in 2008, as his squad looked like world-beaters against Georgia and Kentucky a year ago, but also looked poor in games against North Carolina and Vanderbilt. There are 17 starters back, and if the rest of the SEC isn’t careful, the Gamecocks could sneak up on a lot of teams this year.

 

Offensive Outlook: Spurrier became famous at the University of Florida as being an offensive genius despite rarely having any real talent at the quarterback position. This year he needs to decide whether he will go with redshirt freshman Stephen Garcia, sophomore Chris Smelley, or junior Tommy Beecher as his man under center. Knowing Spurrier, all three will see plenty of action. All three will love throwing the ball to Kenny McKinley, who is one of the better receivers in the SEC. Four starters return on the offensive line, which should leave plenty of holes for the running back trio of Eric Baker, Brian Maddox, and Mike Davis.

 

Defensive Outlook: There aren’t many “names” on this Gamecocks defense, but ten members do return from the unit that surrendered 23.5 PPG last year. Those numbers are slightly skewed though, as only Arkansas and Florida eclipsed 28 points on this squad. LB Jasper Brinkley is the best NFL prospect on this defense, and he’ll be expected to be a leader as one of the two seniors. Junior CB Captain Munnerlyn excels at all phases of the game, and should be one of the top corners in the SEC in his third year as a starter. The South Carolina defense may be loaded with sophomores and juniors, but the Gamecocks should begin to reap the rewards of starting players as freshmen and sophomores in 2008.

 

2008 Preview: The Gamecocks should open up 2-0 with games against NC State and Vandy to open the season, but right after that, they’ll get to take their shot against #1 Georgia. Most SEC schedules are loaded, and South Carolina’s is no exception. They play five games against teams in the preseason AP Top-20, including ending the regular season with road games in Florida and Clemson.

 

2008 will be a success if… some combination of the three quarterbacks can take control of the offense. Most offenses need a leader to succeed, but Spurrier had no problem alternating quarterbacks on every single play back in his day with the Gators. As long as they get some sort of consistent productivity out of the quarterback position, it won’t matter which one is under center.

 

In any other conference in America, the Gamecocks would be a favorite. In the SEC, they’ll have troubles just becoming bowl eligible. Much like ’07, expect to see South Carolina play several games that make you scratch your head both positively and negatively.

 

Prediction: 7-5, 4th place in SEC East

 

Tennessee Volunteers (10-4, 6-2 in 2007, 1st place in SEC East)

 

In a year that HC Phillip Fulmer had his job on the line, the Tennessee Volunteers responded by winning the SEC East. Rocky Top responded by giving Fulmer a lucrative contract extension, but still expect big things in the future. Last season’s SEC Championship Game appearance was a success, especially considering the fact that they were crushed by both Florida and Alabama on the season. The Vols won six of their final seven games, with only a loss to eventual national champion LSU in the mix.

 

Offensive Outlook: Jonathan Crompton will be the man of the hour in Knoxville in ’08. He’ll have a heck of an offense around him, starting with RB Arian Foster, who was a 1,000-yard rushing a year ago. WR Lucas Taylor could become a first day draft pick in the NFL with a big season in ’08. Four of the five starters on the offensive line return, including RG Anthony Parker, another highly touted NFL prospect.

 

Defensive Outlook: The 2007 Vols defense had mixed results. They held strong opponents like Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arkansas under 20 points, but also gave up 40+ points to California, Florida, Alabama, and Kentucky. Replacing LB Jerod Mayo will be an incredibly difficult task, but Rico McCoy should step up and become the leader of the LB corps. Three of the six returning starters are in the secondary, a unit which must improve from a year ago for Tennessee to have success in the always difficult SEC.

 

2008 Preview: Tennessee does dodge LSU on its schedule, but has a murderous stretch in the middle of their season that includes games with Florida, Auburn, and Georgia. Don’t underestimate that season-opener in UCLA, as Rick Neuheisel’s bunch is good enough to spring the upset if the Vols aren’t careful. The rest of the non-conference schedule is very manageable, including games against Northern Illinois, UAB, and Wyoming.

 

2008 will be a success if… the defense can slow down the opposition’s passing game. Though the SEC isn’t known for its high-flying offenses, the Volunteers defense must contain opposing passing games if it hopes to give Crompton and the offense a chance to win games.

 

Tennessee probably isn’t good enough to repeat as SEC East champs again, but the squad is full of talented players and should post another respectable season.

 

Prediction: 8-4, 3rd place in SEC East

 

Vanderbilt Commodores (5-7, 2-6 in 2007, 6th place in SEC East)

 

The 2007 Commodores came incredibly close to reaching a bowl game for the first time since 1982. After opening up 5-3, Vandy lost close games to Kentucky, Tennessee, and Wake Forest to keep them home for the winter. The Tennessee game was especially disturbing, as the Commodores held a 24-9 lead through three quarters, only to see the Vols roll off 16 unanswered in the 4th quarter. It will likely be a difficult season in Nashville this year, as the Commodores only return nine starters from 2008.

 

Offensive Outlook: Vandy ranked near the bottom of all of the offensive categories in the SEC last year, and things don’t look any better for 2008. The quarterbacking duo of Chris Nickson and Mackenzi Adams are back, but neither had any success last year. WR Earl Bennett set all sorts of SEC records in his four years at Vanderbilt, but he has now moved on to the NFL. George Smith and Sean Walker will need to replace his production. The offensive line could be in shambles, as the Commodores will feature five new starters.

 

Defensive Outlook: If Vanderbilt has any chance of competing in the SEC this year, it will be because of their defense. The unit held teams to 22.6 PPG in 2007, and returns six starters from that bunch. CB DJ Moore is the only legitimate NFL prospect on the unit, but there is plenty of talent with him in the secondary. Reshard Langford could make a big difference at safety. Patrick Benoist is the only returning linebacker, but a promising recruiting class from two years ago could make the difference for the ‘Dores.

 

2008 Outlook: There aren’t many winnable games in conference for the Commodores, but their non-conference schedule is manageable. If the team has any hope of going to their fourth bowl game in program history, they must win their games against Miami (OH), Rice, and Duke. Even then, their prospects are grim.

 

2008 will be a success if… flashes of talent can be seen from the youngsters. 2008 is probably a lost season for Vanderbilt, so if some of the younger guys can step in and show some promise, at least there will be a glimmer of hope for the Commodores in the future.

 

There’s no way Vandy is competing against a very stacked SEC East, and it’s entirely possible that they go the entire season without winning a game.

 

Prediction: 1-11, 6th place in SEC East

Posted by Alex Smart on 20-08-2008 | No Comments

CFL Betting - CFL POWER POLL WEEK 9


1: Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-1/0-0) (6-1 ATS) (LW: 1) If there was one team disappointed to partake in their bye last week, it was the Riders. Even though they lost their last time out to the Stampeders two weeks ago, there’s no doubt that Saskatchewan is the class of the CFL heading into the second portion of the season. Sledding will be tougher in the coming weeks with several games against fellow Western Division teams; especially when considering the rash of injuries that exists at the wide receiver position.

 

Next up: Away @ Edmonton (4-3)

 

2: Montreal Alouettes (5-3/1-0) (5-3 ATS) (LW: 5) It’s incredibly difficult to let a victory against a 3-5 team move the Als up three spots in the CFL Power Poll, but the manner in which they impressively disposed of division rival Toronto made the decision that much easier. Montreal bettors found their 32-14 victory to be an easy cash, upping their mark to 5-3 both SU and ATS in ’08. QB Anthony Calvillo is on pace to throw for just about 6,000 yards on the season, while RB Avon Cobourne leads the league in both rushing yards and receptions. Both are good candidates for the Most Outstanding Player honors early in the season.

 

Next up: Bye

 

3: Edmonton Eskimos (4-3/0-0) (4-2-1 ATS) (LW: 2) The Eskimos did nothing wrong in their bye week, but Montreal’s performance was too good to overlook. The green and gold sport the second best ATS mark in the league at 4-2-1, and would make a really strong case to move back into that #2 spot in the poll by knocking off Saskatchewan this week.

 

Next up: Home vs. Saskatchewan (6-1)

 

4: British Columbia Lions (4-3/0-0) (3-4 ATS) (LW: 3) HC Wally Buono is still insistent that former Notre Dame QB Jarious Jackson will remain his starter over Buck Pierce. Lions fans are calling for the switch to be made, especially since Jackson leads the CFL in interceptions (10) and has the lowest completion percentage amongst starting quarterbacks (55.9%). Winning is the perfect remedy for any situation, and a ‘W’ against their hated rivals from Calgary will go a long way in getting the fans back on good terms in BC.

 

Next up: Home vs. Calgary (4-3)

 

5: Calgary Stampeders (4-3/0-0) (4-3 ATS) (LW: 5) Calgary put up two very impressive performances against Saskatchewan before heading into its bye week. This next month will determine whether the Stamps are for real or not, as they have BC, Montreal, and two games with Edmonton on the horizon. Former Buckeye Ken-Yon Rambo leads all receivers in receptions (41), and has played a huge role in stretching the opposition’s defense all season.

 

Next up: Away @ BC (4-3)

 

6: Toronto Argonauts (3-5/0-1) (2-5-1 ATS) (LW: 6) With all of the talk surrounding the future of Doug Berry with the Blue Bombers, perhaps the coach that should be on the hot seat is Toronto’s Rich Stubler. The Argonauts were +120 favorites to win the East at the outset of the season, but are now a disappointing 3-5 and two games behind Montreal. Friday night marked the second straight extremely uninspired effort for the double blue, dropping the game to the Alouettes by a 32-14 count at home. Their once proud defence has given up 77 points in the last two weeks, and has surrendered the most points in the CFL (242). The bye week came at a perfect time. Their Labour Day Classic against Hamilton lurks in Week 10, and a third loss to the lowly Ti-Cats will surely spell the end for Stubler.

 

Next up: Bye

 

7: Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-6/1-0) (2-6 ATS) (LW: 8) With his team up by a score in the 4th quarter of their Week 8 game against Hamilton, HC Doug Berry made the call to go for it on 3rd down and short pinned deep in his own territory. The Bombers converted, and proceeded to march down the field on the Ti-Cats defence. Though they only walked away with a point on the drive, the tide had turned, and the Bombers put away Hamilton 37-24, covering the spread for just the second time this season. The call might’ve saved Berry’s job, but the same probably won’t be said for K Alexis Serna, who missed the short field goal that ended the drive with just a point. Serna is now just 16/26 on field goals for the season, easily the lowest in the CFL, and leads the league in the dubious rouge category with nine.

 

Next up: Bye

 

8: Hamilton Tiger-Cats (2-6/0-1) (3-5 ATS) (LW: 7) Once again, the question around Ivor-Wynne Stadium is why Hamilton can’t play Toronto every week. Their 37-24 loss in Winnipeg dropped the Ti-Cats to 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS against the rest of the league. The good news is that after their bye week, they’ll take on the double blue for the third time this season in the Labour Day Classic. Unlike in years past, Hamilton is fighting hard against all of their opponents, and their reward very well could be a playoff birth when it’s all said and done. There’s still a lot of work to do in Steeltown, though.

 

Next up: Bye

 

Posted by Alex Smart on 19-08-2008 | No Comments

Alex Smart,The Smart Money Comp Selection


Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
Jeremy Guthrie(10-8, 3.18 ERA) the Orioles starting pitcher today against the visiting Boston Red Sox is in red hot form , as is evident by a 7-1 record along with a 2.51 ERA in his 11 appearances. He has been particularly brilliant of late posting a 1.23 ERA , while winning four straight starts. The former Stanford standout has allowed exactly one earned in nine of his L/14 starts, and another top effort is going to be on tap today, against a Boston batting order that has suddenly gone cold, after scoring just five times in losing both contests of a weekend set against the Toronto Blue Jays. Meanwhile, the BoSox will return fire with a top tier pitcher of their own, Jon Lester (11-4, 3.25 ERA). The southpaw hurler is 8-1 along with a stingy 2.87 ERA over his last 12 outings, and also owns a stellar 4-0 mark along with a 3.25 ERA in six career outing versus the Orioles. I know the young thrower, will face baseballs most explosive offense since the all star break, but this kid is something special and will be primed and capable of cooling the Os bats in this spot. With that said, I am recommending a wager on the UNDER
Posted by Alex Smart on 18-08-2008 | No Comments

Alex Smart, The Smart Money, MLB Comp Selection


Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins (MLB) - 8:10 PM EDT Free Play Prediction : Minnesota Twins

Francisco Liriano the Minnesota Twins starting pitcher tonight against the Seattle Mariners, is on my watch list, for under rated MLB pitchers. In 2006 the southpaw, showed the pundits some very nasty stuff, while garnering a 12-3 record along with a stingy 2.16 ERA. Health issues have side lined him , but gradually he is getting back on track, as he makes his 3rd start since returning from the minors. In his first two outings since returning to the big leagues he has recorded a 2.31 ERA, including 10 strike outs in 11 2/3 innings of work , allowing opponents a stunted .209 batting average. I expect , after getting comfortable, and working out any delivery hitches he might have had and those above mentioned outings, he will now be ready to reach his top form in this spot. The Twins hurler, will be backed by a hot hitting team that is 25-8 in their L/33 home games. Meanwhile , the Mariners will return fire with the struggling Carlos Silva ( 4-13, 5.93 ERA). The Emerald City right hander has been smashed on a consistent basis this season, and is on a 1-13 run , after giving up five runs in six innings in a 5-3 loss to Tampa Bay, last time out . The native of Venezuela has looked particularly vulnerable on the road, allowing 104 hits in just 74 innings of work, and I expect nothing will change tonight, as he gets blasted . Play on Minnesota -1.5

Posted by Alex Smart on 15-08-2008 | No Comments

2008 CFB Big East Preview


 

Cincinnati Bearcats (10-3, 4-3 in 2007, 3rd place in Big East)

 

Ever since they joined the Big East in 2005, the Bearcats have been a team on the rise. They took another step towards the top of the conference last year, notching their first ten win season since 1951. The task will be tougher this year, as they only return 12 starters from that 10-win team, and just got the bad news that QB Ben Mauk was denied an extra year of eligibility by the NCAA for a medical redshirt.

 

2007 Highlight: The unranked Bearcats were out seeking respect when the #13 Connecticut Huskies came to town on November 10th. The defense held UConn to just 204 total yards, while Mauk accounted for all four touchdowns to give Cincy a resounding 27-3 victory. The next week, the Bearcats cracked the Top-25 in the AP poll (21st), the USA Today poll (25th), and the BCS rankings (23rd).

 

2007 Lowlight: Having already beaten South Florida and UConn, Cincinnati headed into their game against #6 West Virginia with a birth in the BCS a distinct possibility with a victory. Unfortunately, the rushing attack for the Mountaineers was just too much, as Pat White and Steve Slaton each rushed for over 100 yards against the Bearcats a worn out ‘D’. Mauk led the troops back from a 28-10 hole early in the 4th quarter, but simply ran out of time to pull off the upset. Cincinnati lost 28-23, and turned its attention to a less-illustrious bowl birth.

 

Offensive Outlook: Sophomore QB Demetrius Jones will fill Mauk’s shoes. He’ll need all the help he can get from an experienced offensive line that returns three starters. Marcus Barnett could have a huge second year at wide receiver for the Bearcats after posting 862 yards and 13 touchdowns in his freshman season. Cincy will likely end up with a running back by committee situation, but look for freshman Isaiah Pead to have a productive year.

 

Defensive Outlook: The defense is loaded with juniors and seniors, but not of a ton of experience. DT Terrill Byrd will need to be a force in the middle of the defensive line to give his talented secondary some help. Both CBs DeAngelo Smith and Mike Mickens could be All-Big East performers in ’08.

 

2008 Preview: The road schedule is a nightmare for Cincinnati this season. Road trips to MAC opponents Akron and Marshall shouldn’t be a big deal, but games at Oklahoma, UConn, West Virginia, Louisville, and Hawaii are no walks in the park. The target game for the Bearcats is October 30th when South Florida comes to town in a game that will be televised nationally on ESPN.

 

2008 will be a success if… Jones picks up where Mauk left off with the offense. He needs to protect the football to cover a questionable defense, but if the Bearcats can come anywhere near last year’s average of 36.3 PPG, the team will be in contention for a BCS bid.

 

Optimism is high in Cincinnati, but the schedule will prove too difficult to send the Bearcats to a prolific bowl game this winter.

 

Prediction: 8-5, 3rd place in Big East

 

 

 

 

Connecticut Huskies (9-4, 5-2 in 2007, 2nd place in Big East)

 

Many people thought that HC Randy Edsall and the Huskies were frauds in 2007 when they were ranked in the Top-15 in the country. When push came to shove, UConn wasn’t quite ready to play with the big boys in the Big East. However, a favorable schedule and 17 returning starters should be more than enough to send the Huskies bowling yet again in ’08.

 

2007 Highlight: For a team coming from Tampa Bay, Florida, the #10 South Florida Bulls had to feel out of their element when they traveled to East Hartford to take on the Huskies. The blustery weather conditions gave UConn the perfect homefield advantage, and a strong defensive effort highlighted by a first half shut-out gave the home team a 22-15 upset victory. RB Andre Dixon had his best game of the season, running for 167 yards on 32 carries.

 

2007 Lowlight: The equation was frighteningly simple for Connecticut: Win in Morgantown and you go to your first ever BCS game. The good news was that the Huskies jumped out of the blocks to an early 7-0 lead against #3 West Virginia. The bad news was that the defense hadn’t been exposed to high doses of Pat White quite yet. White paced the Mountaineers offense with 293 total yards and three touchdowns. His 186 yards might’ve led the team, but five different players rushed for at least 50 yards. In all, the 517 rushing yards racked up by the Mounties ultimately led to the 66-21 annihilation they handed the hapless Huskies.

 

Offensive Outlook: There aren’t many glaring weaknesses for this unit, which returns nine starters from their team that averaged 26.5 PPG a year ago. Tyler Lorenzen, younger brother of NFL QB Jared Lorenzen, will be back under center for his senior season. His best friends will be RBs Andre Dixon and Donald Brown, who combined for almost 1,700 yards and 11 TDs last year. Former QB DJ Hernandez has been converted to a receiver, and should have a productive senior season in the slot.

 

Defensive Outlook: If you take out that West Virginia game, the Huskies defense did quite well in 2007 allowing just 13.9 PPG; eight starters return from that unit. A name to watch this year on the D-Line is redshirt freshman Jarrell Miller, who should find plenty of one-on-one opportunities with a senior-laden defensive line surrounding him. The sophomore linebacking duo of Scott Lutrus and Lawrence Wilson are both rising stars in this conference and will be the cornerstone of Edsall’s defense for years to come.

 

2008 Preview: With the unbalanced Big East schedule, the Huskies are subject to four Big East road games in ’08. A three-game road trip in the middle of the season to Louisville, North Carolina, and Rutgers could prove disastrous. Everyone in Connecticut has its eyes locked onto their November 1st rematch with West Virginia.

 

2008 will be a success if… the Huskies can keep up their defensive intensity. Defense was what won this team games early in the season, and was what cost them games towards the end of it. The offense should be good enough to win plenty of games, but the defense absolutely must be towards the top of the Big East if Edsall expects his Huskies to take the next step towards becoming a contender for a BCS birth.

 

The Huskies were a nice story in 2007, but bad losses down the stretch leaves cause for concern for the upcoming season. UConn will go bowling, but Huskies fans shouldn’t expect a much better bowl bid than their Meineke Bowl spot a year ago.

 

Prediction: 7-5, 5th place in Big East

 

Louisville Cardinals (6-6, 3-4 in 2007, 5th place in Big East)

 

Things just seemed to fall apart at Louisville at a rapid clip in 2007. Former HC Bobby Petrino bolted for the NFL, and incoming HC Steve Kragthorpe had no success building on an offense that was supposed to be amongst the best in the nation. Departed QB Brian Brohm was supposed to be on the Heisman watch list at the start of the season, but fizzled throughout his senior campaign. A 6-6 season without a bowl game was unacceptable in 2007, but it could become a regularity unless the Cardinals have a dramatic turnaround in ’08.

 

2007 Highlight: With nothing to play for but the pride of finishing .500 on the season, Louisville headed into its final game against Rutgers full of spirit. They found themselves down by 18 points on three different occasions, but tied the game up with back-to-back touchdown drives in the 4th quarter. Art Carmody booted a 33-yard field goal with just 0:20 remaining to clinch the game up for the Cardinals. In Brohm’s final game as a college QB, he went just 12/22 for 237 yards, but did lead the final three scoring drives to propel the team to victory.

 

2007 Lowlight: In a year of bizarre upsets in college football, Louisville became the largest favorite in college football history to lose a game outright in September. The Cardinals were 37.5-point favorites against the lowly 0-3 Syracuse Orange. Brohm threw for 555 yards, but the defense surrendered 465 yards, including touchdowns of 42, 60, 79, and 93 yards. Despite a late Louisville touchdown flurry, Syracuse hung on to pull the major upset off by a 38-35 final count. If there’s a bright spot for the Cardinals, USC took their record for the biggest favorite to lose outright later in the season when they lost to Stanford as 40.5-point chalks.

 

Offensive Outlook: Here’s a suggestion for Kragthorpe in camp this summer: invest in name tags. The offense only returns four starters, only one of which is a skill position player. RB Brock Bolen will probably be run into the ground in 2008 behind an offensive line that returns three starters. Senior QB Hunter Cantwell did a lot of watching behind Brohm in his career, but will finally get his chance to shine.

 

Defensive Outlook: Name tags are necessary here too, as the Cardinals need to break in six new starters on the defensive side of the ball. The defensive line returns three from last year including DTs Adrian Grady and Earl Heyman who are two of the best in the conference. Highly touted sophomore safety Latarrius Thomas will need to play a big role in the secondary. Perhaps it’s a good thing that only half of this unit returns from last year, as the defense gave up a lofty 31.4 PPG in ‘07.

 

2008 Preview: Eight home games litter the Cardinals schedule, including four straight at Papa John’s Stadium to open up the season. The annual opener against Kentucky is always heated, especially since the Wildcats won the rivalry game in 2007. If it’s another “blue state” affair in ’08, Kragthorpe could be looking for a new job in a hurry. There are only three conference road games on the slate this year, and all three are winnable games (Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and Rutgers).

 

2008 will be a success if… the Cardinals reach a bowl game. If not, expect sweeping changes for a program that was on the verge of a National Championship just two short seasons ago.

 

It’s going to be a long road once again for Louisville, but just on accident, eight home games and a relatively easy road schedule should be converted into a bowl game. However, don’t expect the Cardinals to be competing for the conference crown any time in the near future.

 

Prediction: 6-6, 7th place in Big East

 

 

Pittsburgh Panthers (5-7, 3-4 in 2007, 7th place in Big East)

 

It’s likely bowl game or bust for HC Dave Wannstedt and the Pitt Panthers in 2008. Fifteen starters return from last year’s squad, and expectations are understandably high for the former Miami Dolphins head coach to bring Pitt to an upper tier bowl game. The BCS is probably out of reach this year, but if the Panthers aren’t playing a game on December 31st or January 1st this season, expect Wannstedt to be out of a job.

 

2007 Highlight: The 28.5-point underdog Panthers marched into Morgantown attempting to derail the national championship hopes of their rivals, the #2 West Virginia Mountaineers, in the 2008 edition of the “Backyard Brawl”. Though WVU had already wrapped up the Big East crown and a BCS birth, all they had to do was knock off Pitt to lock up their spot in the BCS title game. The stingy Panthers wouldn’t go down without a fight, holding the Mountaineers explosive offense to just one touchdown for the game. The Pitt offense was horrendous, only notching 225 yards, but the 13 points they put on the board was enough to spring the massive upset. WVU’s national title hopes were dashed in HC Rich Rodriguez’s last game by the count of 13-9.

 

2007 Lowlight: The worst performance of the 2007 season came when Pitt made a trip to Charlottesville to take on the Virginia Cavaliers. RB LeSean McCoy had a respectable game, rushing for 86 yards on 19 carries, but the team found themselves in a 30-0 hole in the 2nd quarter that was simply too deep to dig out of. Pitt trimmed the lead to 30-14 in the 4th quarter, but 14 unanswered points by the Cavs put the game away and made the final score 44-14.

 

Offensive Outlook: All eyes will be on McCoy after putting up 1,328 yards and 14 TDs on the ground in his freshman season. If he stays healthy, there is no doubt that McCoy will be an All-Big East performer, but he has the potential to put up numbers worthy of the Heisman Trophy if Pitt plays well. Three quarterbacks return with experience, but none of them lit the scoreboard up for the Panthers in ’07. Expect a young offensive line to get a boost blocking for the elusive McCoy all season.

 

Defensive Outlook: Sophomore DE Greg Romeus had a solid freshman season, recording four sacks and seven and a half tackles for loss in ’07. He’ll anchor a line with two other returning starters. With their linebacking corps intact from a year ago; the biggest question will be the secondary where both safety spots must be replaced.

 

2008 Preview: There’s no excuse for the Panthers to start anything but 3-0 with home games against Bowling Green, Buffalo, and Iowa, but the schedule gets much more difficult after that. They play six of their final nine games on the road, and close the season with games at Cincy and Connecticut, with the “Backyard Brawl” sandwiched in between. You’d like to think that the Panthers can pull off at least two road wins on this schedule somewhere to find themselves in a desirable bowl game, but the schedule is brutal.

 

2008 will be a success if… McCoy thrusts himself into the Heisman discussion early in the season. There’s almost no way that the sophomore will pull off the same feat that Tim Tebow accomplished a year ago, but McCoy really could see the ball enough to pull off a 1,700 yard season with 20 touchdowns.

 

Though McCoy is an invaluable asset for Coach Wannstedt that will single-handedly win some games, the Panthers should do no better than a distant third in a difficult Big East. The biggest question will be whether it’s enough for Wannstedt to return to the team in ‘09.

 

Prediction: 8-4, 4th place in Big East

 

 

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-5, 3-4 in 2007, 6th place in Big East)

 

Let’s take a moment to recognize the great accomplishments of Scarlet Knights HC Greg Schiano. Four years ago, Rutgers was a mess, posting a 4-7 record. They suffered the embarrassment of losing to I-AA New Hampshire during that season. Now they’ve been to three straight bowl games, and flirted with the idea of winning a national championship in 2006. This won’t be a team contending for a BCS bid any time in the near future, but putting this Rutgers program on the map is commendable.

 

2007 Highlight: Piscataway, New Jersey was in a frenzy during Rutgers’ nationally televised game against the #2 South Florida Bulls. Schiano pulled out all of the stops, including a fake punt, a fake field goal, a flea flicker, and several double reverses to surprise the Bulls. It felt like every button he pushed worked. Mr. Reliable, Ray Rice toted the rock 39 times for 181 yards to preserve the 30-27 upset of the #2 team in the nation.

 

2007 Lowlight: After three blowout victories to start the season against lesser foes, the #10 Scarlet Knights look poised at another serious run towards a BCS bid. For the first time since 2005, Rutgers came out completely flat in their game against the Maryland Terrapins, and never really woke up. Rutgers never led by more than three points, and trailed by ten halfway through the 4th quarter. QB Mike Teel brought the Knights back within a field goal, but the Terps sealed the upset with a TD of their own on the ensuing drive. The 34-24 defeat grounded Rutgers, and started a stretch of very erratic and inconsistent play.

 

Offensive Outlook: It’s all going to be about Teel and the passing game in ’08 if the Scarlet Knights are to be a success story. He’ll have all of his favorite targets back from 2007, most notably Tiquan Underwood and Kenny Britt, both of which recorded over 1,000 receiving yards a year ago. Replacing Rice won’t be easy, but that’s the daunting task that sophomore RB Mason Robinson faces. The little playing time that Robinson saw in his freshman year was encouraging, as he averaged 5.6 YPC.

 

Defensive Outlook: Eight starters return to the defense that held teams to 22.5 PPG a year ago. Consistency will be the key for this unit, as they had very successful games where the defense was spotless, and others where they couldn’t stop eleven turtles from running all over them. The defensive line rotation is chalk full of seniors, and they’ll be expected to help out a group of very talented youngsters around the rest of the defense. LB Manny Abreu should jump right into the starting lineup as a freshman, while sophomore SS Joe Lefeged could get his first bit of significant playing time in ’08. FS Courtney Greene is an NFL prospect, and should find his way onto the All-Big East team this season.

 

2008 Preview: On paper, this team looks promising, but the schedule is brutal. Short of home dates with Morgan State and Army, this slate is loaded with potential hazards. Fresno State, North Carolina, and Navy are no pushovers, and they arguably have the hardest schedule in the Big East, having to travel to West Virginia, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and South Florida.

 

2008 will be a success if… Britt and Underwood both have tremendous seasons. Without Rice to lean on for 30 touches a game, Teel must use his best two weapons early and often if the Scarlet Knights are going to consistently put points on the board.

 

No one wants to see Schiano’s Scarlet Knights on their docket, but the brutal schedule is just going to be too much for Rutgers to be a dominant team in the Big East.

 

Prediction: 7-5, 6th place in Big East

 

 

South Florida Bulls (9-4, 4-3 in 2007, 4th place in Big East)

 

The meteoric rise of the South Florida Bulls has been nothing short of tremendous. HC Jim Leavitt has brought this team from not even having a football program a decade ago all the way up to the #2 team in the land at one point last season. Nearly all of the starters from last year’s team return in 2008, which should once again make South Florida a legitimate contender for the Big East crown and their first BCS bowl bid.

 

2007 Highlight: There are plenty of big games to point at in 2007 for the Bulls, but the victory that arguably put the program on the map for good came in Auburn in the second week of the season. USF stood toe-to-toe with the SEC powerhouse in spite of four missed field goals by K Delbert Alvarado. When push came to shove, Alvarado connected on two 4th quarter field goals, including the 19-yarder that sent the game into overtime. The upset-minded Bulls had their chance for victory after Auburn had to settle for a field goal on their possession in the extra frame, and QB Matt Grothe capitalized, saving his only touchdown pass of the game for the most crucial of times. Grothe hooked up with Jessie Hester on the 14-yard touchdown pass that gave the Bulls a 26-23 upset at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

 

2007 Lowlight: The 2007 Sun Bowl was a disaster for Leavitt and the Bulls on just about every front. Though USF led Oregon 18-14 at halftime, the Dennis Dixon-less Ducks went on a whopping 35-0 run to start the 2nd half and dismantle the Bulls. Jonathan Stewart ran roughshod on the USF defense, recording 253 rushing yards on the day. South Florida threw four interceptions, and lost their second ever bowl game by the score of 56-21.

 

Offensive Outlook: Last season, the USF offense rolled up 34.7 PPG. Ten of the eleven starters from that team return, most notably Grothe. It will be his third year as the leader of the offense, and could garner Heisman attention if the Bulls perform well. All of the skill position players are back as well, including WR’s Carlton Mitchell, Taurus Johnson, and the aforementioned Hester. Watch for RB Mike Ford to crack the 1,000 yard barrier on the ground after recording 645 yards in his freshman season.

 

Defensive Outlook: Seven starters return from 2007. Expect junior DE George Selvie to continue to unleash fury on opposing QBs. Selvie will almost certainly be a first round draft pick when he turns pro, and is a force that requires a double-team on every single passing down for the opposition to have a chance of succeeding. After both starting CBs left for the NFL, the secondary could be a bit of a question for the Bulls, but is really the only glaring potential chink in the armor.

 

2008 Outlook: There is a very real chance that the December 6th meeting in Morgantown between USF and West Virginia could be for both the Big East crown and a spot in the BCS title game. The Bulls need to be careful, as in-state rival UCF will be gunning for them after the Bulls blew the Knights out by 52 points last year. If they can survive the trip to Orlando and a visit from Kansas, it should be clear sailing for the Bulls until the end of October when they hit the road in conference play. October 30th in Cincinnati is probably the biggest obstacle before the game against West Virginia.

 

2008 will be a success if… their superstars continue to shine. Names like Grothe, Ford, and Selvie became household names in the college football world last season, and they’ll each need to step up their game another level if the Bulls are to challenge for a national championship.

 

The Bulls have an incredible chance to be something really special in 2008, but that trip into Morgantown will likely blow up any hope of playing for the national championship. Don’t be surprised if USF still gets their first BCS bowl bid anyway as an at-large from a very difficult conference.

 

Prediction: 10-2, 2nd place in Big East

 

 

Syracuse Orange (2-10, 1-6 in 2007, 8th place in Big East)

 

Alumni like Dwight Freeney, Marvin Harrison, and Donovan McNabb must have sleepless nights wondering about their beloved Orange. Syracuse has only won seven games since 2004, and has basically turned into the Duke of the Big East. HC Greg Robinson hasn’t had much to work with in years past, but he does have some pieces that could help jumpstart the return of the program to respectability this season.

 

2007 Highlight: After being outscored 118-32 in their first three games of the season, it’s no wonder the Orange were 37.5-point underdogs going into Papa John’s Stadium to take on #18 Louisville. All of a sudden, the offense had an explosion, going off for 38 points on the Cardinals en route to the 38-35 victory, the largest pointspread upset in college football history at the time. QB Andrew Robinson threw for a career-high 423 yards in the stunner, 173 of which went to WR Taj Smith.

 

2007 Lowlight: Two weeks before putting forth their best effort of the season, the Orange clearly put up their worst. The ‘Cuse offense only put up 103 yards and recorded just five first downs in their 35-0 shellacking at the hands of the Iowa Hawkeyes.

 

Offensive Outlook: Robinson is set to begin his third year as the QB for the Orange, and his expectations are going to be higher than ever to try to salvage a program in shambles. The running game was pathetic in 2007, only averaging 2.0 YPC and 753 total yards. That should improve this year with the emergence of true freshman RB Averin Collier. The offensive line rotation will be incredibly young, as three sophomores and two freshman expect to split time with two seniors. Seven starters return, but expect to see plenty of different faces all over the field when the Orange are on offense.

 

Defensive Outlook: Though seven starters also return on the defensive side of the ball, don’t expect to see much improvement from a stop unit that allowed nine different opponents to score at least 30 points in 2007. LB Jake Flaherty is probably the best of the bunch, and the defensive line shows some promise with three returners. The guys to watch for the future of this defense are sophomore LBs Parker Cantey and Mike Mele.

 

2008 Outlook: There’s only one word to describe the outlook for the Orange in ’08: Grim. One would like to think that games against Akron and Northeastern are winnable, but nothing is for certain when you’re Syracuse. Inevitably, they’ll win a game or two in the Carrier Dome because of the homefield advantage, but wins will be few and far between at best.

 

2008 will be a success if… both Robinson and Collier suddenly become superstars. In the likely event that doesn’t happen, it will be another long football season in upstate New York.

 

About the only promising thing about the upcoming football season in Syracuse is that basketball season isn’t too far behind.

 

Prediction: 3-9, 8th place in Big East

 

West Virginia Mountaineers (11-2, 5-2 in 2007, 1st place in Big East)

 

My how quickly things fell apart in Morgantown at the end of 2007! After suffering a shocking home defeat in the final game of the regular season to their archrivals that cost them a spot in the BCS title game, HC Rich Rodriguez resigned to take the job at Michigan. Now Bill Stewart takes over the reigns, and looks to lead his explosive offense back into the championship conversations.

 

2007 Highlight: Even though missing out on the BCS title game was a disappointment, the Mountaineers still won the Big East and got a pretty good consolation prize getting to play in the Fiesta Bowl against Oklahoma. The future was on display that night, as Stewart was coaching under the interim tag, and the country got its first real look at freshman standout RB Noel Devine. Devine ran for 108 yards on the OU defense, and Pat White directed the Mountaineers to a statement 48-28 victory against the Big XII champs.

 

2007 Lowlight: December 1st, 2007 might be the darkest day in WVU football history. The Mountaineers were four touchdown favorites against the Pitt Panthers at home in the “Backyard Brawl” with a national championship birth on the line. The defense played stellar football, holding Pitt to just 13 points. Unfortunately, it was one of just two games all season in which the offense just got no traction whatsoever. West Virginia only scored one touchdown, and was knocked out of the title chase with the 13-9 loss.

 

Offensive Outlook: Even though RB Steve Slaton left school early and is now a Houston Texan, many were under the belief that Devine was taking his starting spot whether he returned to WVU or not. The sophomore is the real deal with ridiculous game-breaking ability. Senior QB Pat White and Devine together should easily be the most explosive QB/RB duo in the nation, and both could be up for Heisman considerations in ’08. All five starters on the offensive line are back, but losing FB Owen Schmitt could be a significant loss. If you thought the 297 YPG WVU averaged last year on the ground was impressive, wait til you see what’s coming with Devine and White this year.

 

Defensive Outlook: What really set the 2007 Mountaineers apart from the WVU teams that came up short before them was the play of the defense. Yes, the offense put up some obscene numbers at times, but their job was made easier by a defense which held six different opponents to 14 points or less. Only five starters return from last year’s team, but several members of last year’s defensive rotation will be plugged into starting roles for an easy transition. Rover Charles Pugh is the most important cog in the 3-3-5 look that WVU will throw at its opponents, and he must have a big year for the unit to be successful.

 

2008 Preview: The theme for 2008 for the Mountaineers has to be “unfinished business.” They really were one of the best teams in the nation last year, and to push over the top in ’08 after having the fallout with Coach Rodriguez would be extra sweet. Their schedule sets up perfectly for a run to the BCS title game. WVU should coast to 6-0 before Auburn comes to town on October 23rd. Road games at Connecticut, Louisville, and Pittsburgh could prove difficult, but if they survive those games, the Mountaineers could be on a crash course with South Florida for a spot in the national title game on December 6th.

 

2008 will be a success if… White and Devine stay healthy. WVU makes no secret about their offensive plans. They’re going to run around you when they can, and bowl you over if you get in their way. They can score a touchdown from anywhere on the field. Their two losses were both games in which White missed time. If they keep him and Devine upright all season, WVU will be playing for all the marbles in January.

 

With White on the way out the door after this season, the time is now for West Virginia to run the table and march towards a national championship. We think they’ll slip up once somewhere along the way, but as long as it isn’t to USF in December, a national championship appearance is a distinct possibility.

 

Prediction: 11-1, 1st place in Big East

Posted by Alex Smart on 14-08-2008 | (1) Comment