Last season, the 49ers were expected to be a team on the rise. They had gone just 7-9 SU (9-7 ATS) in 2006 but had shown considerable improvement down the stretch. Most considered Mike Nolan to be a bright coach with a promising coach. Alex Smith was an up and coming quarterback, who had some new and improved receivers at his disposal. Frank Gore ranked among the best running backs in the league. The 49ers even had the benefit of two selections in the first round. Additionally, the defense had shelled out big bucks in the offseason to sign an elite cornerback, Nate Clements. Naturally, there was plenty of optimism in the Bay area. Oddsmakers originally projected the 49ers to win seven games. However, bettors quickly bet that line all the way up to 8 -115.

As you probably remember, things didn’t go as planned. Not only did San Francisco fail to improve, the team actually went backwards. Despite a respectable 3-3 divisional record, the 49ers finished the season with a dismal 5-11 (5-10-1 ATS) mark. Naturally, off that type of disappointing season, expectations are significant lower for the 49ers this year. Oddsmakers are currently projecting the 49ers to win just 6.5 games. In fact, some shops still have their projected number of regular season wins at just six, although one has to lay some extra juice if choosing that option. If one doesn’t mind tying up some money for several months, I believe this gives us excellent value with the “Over.”

The 49ers biggest problem last season was that the offense couldn’t score points. Quarterback Alex Smith struggled, as did the receiving corps. Smith would eventually get hurt, separating his shoulder in Week 4. He also argued with coach Mike Nolan. When Smith went down, Trent Dilfer, who has since retired, was terrible in relief. Frank Gore still finished with more than 1000 rushing yards (1102) while adding more than 436 receiving yards and leading the team with receptions. There are several reasons to believe that the offense will be much improved this season though.

For starters, Gore is back. He’s proven to be one of the best backs in the league and should put up big numbers once again. Additionally, Smith is reportedly healthy and has “made peace” with Nolan. He’ll be challenged by Shaun Hill, who was solid when given a shot at the starter’s job after Dilfer got hurt. Whether it’s Smith, Hill or newly acquired J.T. O’Sullivan running the show, there will be some new receiving weapons available. Isaac Bruce, a longtime “49er killer,” was signed via free agency. While he’s now 35 years old, Bruce still had greater than 50 receptions last season, while leading the Rams with an average of 13.3 yards per catch. The 49ers also acquired former Cardinal Bryant Johnson, also via free agency. Johnson, who was stuck behind Fitzgerald and Boldin in Arizona, has talent and should be thrilled at a chance for a bigger role. They’ll join Arnaz Battle, who has been the team’s most consistent receiver the past two seasons, and tight-end Vernon Davis, who had 52 receptions last season. Veteran Ashley Lelie and youngsters Jason Hill and Josh Morgan will all compete for a job and provide depth to this much improved unit. The offensive line appears to be relatively solid.

Perhaps more important that the new acquisitions on the field, was the signing of “offensive guru” Mike Martz. As you’ll probably remember, Martz was considered a “genius” when coaching in St. Louis, and directing the Rams explosive attack. While he eventually wore out his welcome in St. Louis, Martz also helped improve what had previously been a rather anemic Detroit attack. Whether or not one likes Martz, it’s hard to imagine that the 49ers won’t be significantly better offensively this season.

There’s also reason for optimism on the defensive side of the ball. With Clements signed to a long-term contract, the secondary remains in relatively good shape. The defensive line lost longtime star Bryant Young to retirement, as well as Marques Douglas to free agency. However, they shelled out big bucks to sign free-agent defensive end Justin Smith while acquiring Kentwan Balmer in the first round of the draft. The linebacking corps appears to be a strength. That’s largely due to the stellar play of last year’s Defensive Rookie of the Year Patrick Willis.

The 49ers are also in good shape in the special teams department. Andy Lee is an excellent punter while Joe Nedney is generally an extremely reliable kicker. Long snapper Brian Jennings is also considered to be one of the best at his position. They also signed Allen Rossum to bolster the return game. San Francisco fans will likely remember Rossum, a former Steelar, as he returned a kickoff for a touchdown against them last season.

The non-divisional schedule appears fairly manageable. While the 49ers do have several tough matchups (Patriots, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants) they also face a few non-divisional opponents which ranked near the bottom of the league last season. The Jets, Bills and Dolphins all finished below .500 and had a combined record of just 12-36. The Redskins were relatively mediocre last season and are projected to finish below .500 last season. Meanwhile both the Saints and Lions finished below .500 last season. Of course, the NFC West has been one of the league’s weaker divisions for quite some time now. As previously mentioned, even with all last year’s problems, the 49ers still managed a 3-3 divisional record last year.

All things considered, I feel that the 49ers will be an improved team this season. If you can still find their projected number of regular season wins at six, consider a play on the ‘over.’

 
With a commanding lead over the competition (field of 150!) Ben Burns is recognized as the #1 NFL handicapper in the entire history of one of the Internet’s longest running and most respected sports monitors…

One important aspect of betting ‘totals’ in baseball is knowing the various ball parks/stadiums. Certainly starting pitchers, offensive and defensive stats come into play when oddsmakers are making totals on games. The wind direction, too, is a factor and you may have noticed that some Cubs’ games in Wrigley Field aren’t posted until the day of the game. It’s not called the Windy City for nothing, and bookies don’t want to get caught posting an overnight total of 7½ for a Wrigley Field game with Carlos Zambrano pitching, then finding out the next morning that the wind is blowing out 20 miles an hour to center.

The configuration of each park is also important to look at, especially with so many parks having been built over the last decade. San Diego’s relatively new Petco Park is a pitcher’s paradise. The correlation is striking in two areas: San Diego is the worst offensive team in baseball, plus they started 23-14 under the total at home. That’s a solid winning percentage just wagering blindly on the under. Not that I would recommend ever blindly wagering on anything

You may recall a few years ago when San Diego slugger Ryan Klesko became frustrated, as he couldn’t hit home runs at home anymore because the Padres new park was so big. In short, it’s a great ‘pitcher’s park’ and a very difficult home run park. Two years the Padres were 40-35 under the total at home averaging 3.7 runs. When they went on the road, however, the offense averaged 5.1 runs. Not surprisingly, during the past few seasons, they’ve been a solid ‘under the total team’ at home.

Shea Stadium in New York, the home of the Mets, is another pitcher-friendly park, along with Dodger stadium, (although not quite as much as it once was) Oakland and Washington. Notice that this season the Nationals average 3.4 runs at home, but 3.8 runs on the road. Certainly the park plays a key role in this disparity, leading to a 28-21-1 start under the total at home. In their most recent game here, the Nationals failed to score a single run. Conversely, in their most recent road game, they put up a ‘5-spot.’

Due to playing in a pitcher friendly park, it’s essential that the Dodgers have some kind of speed in the lineup, particularly atop the order. That’s why the loss of Rafael Furcal in the first half of the season was such a huge blow. He’s an outstanding leadoff hitter atop the order, one who can get on base and jumpstart an offense by helping to manufacture runs. The Dodgers were 18-14 in games started by Furcal, and then went 12-24 in games after he got hurt.

Parks don’t always remain the same either. A few years back, Dodger Stadium underwent some renovations which saw new seats added into areas which had previously been on the field and part of ‘foul ball terrritory.’ This did have an effect but not quite as much as some may have expected. At the time Dodger catcher David Ross was quoted as saying that he expected the effect to be relatively minimal. “It may be five or six balls in foul ground,” he said. Ross continued by saying: “I don’t think there’s that many outs made in that area. The pitchers’ park is more because of the heavy air at night in L.A. During the day, a ball flies. At night, it doesn’t come close to going out.”

How about Coors Field? Several years ago, it was common to see over/under lines of 13, 14 or 15 in games played in the high altitude of Colorado. Those numbers have gradually come down though and today we now routinely see over/under numbers of 9, 9.5 or 10. Despite the lines being adjusted, 24 of 45 games (excluding one push) managed to stay below the total there.

Other offensive parks, besides Coors, include Philadelphia, Boston, Cincinnati, Texas, Houston, Milwaukee, Minnesota and Toronto. Indoor parks like the Metrodome can be tough on pitchers. Not only does the artificial turf cause the ball to scoot faster making it tougher on infielders, but the lack of wind can make indoor places easier home run parks. We may have to include Arizona into this mix, another indoor facility. This season the Diamondbacks are averaging roughly four runs per game on the road, but more than five per game at home. They’re hitting a healthy .277 at home but a dismal .220 on the road.

The Oakland A’s visited last month in an Interleague game and scored 15 runs, most off of ace Brandon Webb. The next night Arizona returned the favor by scoring 11 runs. The previous two days the weak hitting Royals came to Arizona and scored 12 and 8 runs in consecutive games. Anyway, the point is that to be a successful ‘total’ handicapper, one needs to know the parks and their various dimensions.

A look at a list of the greatest hitters in baseball history finds something illuminating. Most are left-handed hitters. This is the opposite of what we find in society, in that the majority of people are righties. For whatever reason, lefties make up roughly 20% of the population. Yet, in baseball, lefties excel.

In the American League from 1956-88 (32 years), a switch or left-handed hitter won the batting title 28 times! I include switch-hitters because they bat lefty most of the time, as most starting pitchers are righties. That list includes talented hitters like Mickey Mantle (S), Ted Williams (L), Carl Yastrzemski (L), Rod Carew (L), Fred Lynn (L), George Brett (L) and Wade Boggs (L). And it’s not just that time frame. Ty Cobb won 11 batting titles and was left-handed, along with Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.

Baseball is a game where lefty/righty dynamics are essential to study carefully. For instance, the Red Sox are a terrific hitting team against lefties, winning 10 of 12 games against southpaw starters. There’s an old adage that opposing managers don’t like to start lefties in Fenway park as southpaws can get psychologically shaken up afraid of the Green Monster. The theory goes that southpaws will try to go away, away, away as they don’t want righties pulling the ball to left field for doubles or singles off the wall. They are more predictable and can get away from their normal game of working all sides of the plate. Regardless, Boston’s offense has feasted on lefties thus far.

Meanwhile, the Orioles are just 5-10 against southpaws, the Twins began 6-12, the Nationals started 11-18, while the Padres are 7-13. Of course, the Padres can’t hit anybody! Part of the reason is that managers will often change their lineup, using lefty hitters as often as possible against righty pitchers. But many times lefty batters struggled against southpaws, sometimes significantly so. Former Boston and Cleveland RF Trot Nixon was a good example, a fine all around player and a left-handed hitter. He’s always been terrific against righty pitchers, but struggles against lefties. Last season was no exception: .307 against righties, .229 against lefties. From 2004-2006, Nixon hit .297 against righties, .207 against southpaws.

In addition, hitters are used to seeing righties more often that, perhaps, seeing lefties less makes it more difficult to adjust or pick up the ball. There are many theories, but the bottom line is the stats don’t lie. This is important for handicappers to grasp and dissect. One must examine which righty pitchers struggle with lefties, which major league lineups have an excess of lefty sluggers, and the tendencies of managers to sit players or maximize lefty/righty differences.

The Twins have a winning record against righties, but a poor mark against lefties. This one can be explained by their batting order, with their three top power hitters all left handed in Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel. Morneau has far better power numbers against righties while Kubel is terrible against lefties.

The Angels are another team which has been successful against southpaws. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, either, as the power part of the lineup is able to bat righthanded with righty Vladimir Guerrero, newcomer Torii Hunter and switch-hitter Gary Matthews Jr. I’ve just scratched the surface here. The important thing to remember is that in the competitive world of sports wagering, it’s essential to go deep inside the numbers to grind out consistent profits!

True “ace” pitchers in baseball are the most coveted (and rarest) of commodities. World series champions almost always have a dominant starter on the staff, sometimes even two of them. When the Arizona Diamondbacks won the 2001 World Series, the playoff MVPs were Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson. Who needs offense with a dominant mound one-two punch like that?

When the Cardinals won the 2004 NL pennant and advanced to the World Series, they had a bad bit of luck in the postseason, as ace Chris Carpenter was lost. St. Louis was without their ‘top guy’ in the World Series, while the AL champion Red Sox had a pair of aces in Schilling and Pedro Martinez. The result was a 4-game sweep. Last October, the Red Sox sported another ace in Josh Beckett, riding his golden right arm to another title. Without him, the Indians probably would have won their first World Series since 1948.

“Workhorse” aces have such a huge impact on a team. They are called stoppers for a reason – halting any losing streak every 5 days. They also rest the bullpen, regularly going 7-8 innings. And in the playoffs, there’s arguably nothing more valuable than a stopper, especially in a Game 7.

While we have yet to reach the All Star Break, health issues to stoppers are already making some of this season’s pennant races particularly interesting to watch. In Chicago, almost everything has been going well for the first place Cubs, at least when they play at Wrigley. Fans are already talking about the team’s first World Series title since 1908. However, those talks were put on hold this week, when ace Carlos Zambrano went on the shelf needing an MRI.

Without Zambrano (8-3) the Cubs just got swept by the Tampa Bay Rays. Left-hander Sean Marshall comes up from Class AAA Iowa to take Zambrano’s turn. You can already see what a domino effect that can have on a staff. Suddenly the No. 2 starter is forced to become a No. 1, and so on. And instead of Zambrano the Cubs have to use a kid up from AAA. The good news is the Cubs still have the best record in the majors. The worrisome news is that the Cubs returned home smarting from a 2-4 trip.

Arizona has a similar concern. They are worried about ace Brandon Webb, who is 2-3 since winning his first nine starts. Webb lasted just 3 1/3 innings as the A’s pounded him 15-1. He allowed a season-high seven earned runs and nine hits. He struck out just three and walked five. Those aren’t the normal numbers of a guy who won the 2006 NL Cy Young Award.

The NL West-leading Diamondbacks were outscored by a combined 35-7 during a three-game skid. For all their woes, the Diamondbacks remain 4½ games ahead of Los Angeles in the feeble NL West. Arizona is 7-14 since May 26 but have added a game to its lead in that span. They may be able to survive in this bad division, but will have vastly diminished October hopes if Webb is not 100%.

When the Cardinals advanced to the 2006 World Series, they got there by upsetting the Mets in Game 7 of the NLCS. The Mets’ starter for Game 7 was Oliver Perez and his 3-13 record. It didn’t help manager Willie Randolph’s resume to handle the rotation so a kid 3-13 starts the biggest game of the year. It was no surprise Randolph was recently fired with moves like that, plus the Mets’ historic collapse last September and underachieving 2008 start. He certainly could have used a true stopper the last three years.

A potentially crushing blow to the red-hot Yankees was ace Ching Ming Wang going out for 6 weeks with an ankle injury. They already lack pitching depth and Wang is invaluable. Having an ace has been a huge part of the success of the Rays (Scott Kazmir), while the Angels have several outstanding starters that kept them afloat while the offense struggled.

The Indians have struggled despite having a pair of aces on C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona. Of course, Carmona’s injury hasn’t helped matters. He’ll be back soon (not soon enough for fans of the Tribe!) and it wouldn’t be a shock to see them make a second half run with those two. The other side of the coin is that Sabathia is in his ‘walk year’ and could be dealt – likely to a contending team that needs an ace. That could also help tip the pennant balance. Remember back in 2003 the Marlins had a terrible first three months, then roared back to win the World Series. How did they do it? A rotation of Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis and Brad Penny. How’s that for a trio of aces!