<>Everyone talks about the great parts of football teams. The Broncos’ new-look passing attack, QBs Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb, or coaches like Andy Reid, Mike Shanahan and Tom Coughlin. But sports bettors can also find winning ATS opportunities by going AGAINST certain things. The Arizona Cardinals, for instance, have been a lousy team on the road the last few years. With that in mind, here is a look at some truly bad things about the NFL as we just finished up Week 3.

Detroit pass defense: Some things never change. The Lions came into this season with a new defensive coordinator and a positive attitude after winning all 4 preseason games. What a joke. It just shows you how insignificant preseason is. The new-look defense was shredded for 474 yards against the Falcons in the opener, including 318 rushing to a team with a rookie QB playing in his FIRST NFL game!

Then they allowed 447 yards and 48 points to the Packers (9-of-16 on third down). They are allowing a staggering 460 yards per game. They headed all the way out to San Francisco Sunday and promptly gave up 243 first half yards while falling behind 21-3. ‘That’s tough,’ defensive tackle Cory Redding said. ‘That’s a hard one to swallow.’

Against the Packers, cornerback Brian Kelly tripped and fell, leaving his man wide open for a 62-yard catch as the defense. Head coach Rod Marinelli and defensive coordinator Joe Barry are not getting the job done and don’t have the personnel to work with. Thanks, general manager Matt Millen! The Lions were the worst defense in the NFL in 2007. In 2007 the Lions gave up 377.6 yards and 28.8 points a game. That average has been bumped up to 34.4 points a game in their last 10 games, nine of them losses. And this was supposed to be the year for improvement? The Lions are 0-3 straight up and against the spread.

Cleveland offense: After a sparkling 2007 season, QB Derek Anderson has found the going rough this season during an 0-3 start with 2 touchdowns, 5 picks and a 57.1 rating. They even brought in WR Donte Stallworth as a free agent, so this offense was supposed to be explosive, though Stallaworth has yet to play. So what gives?

Actually, there likely isn’t anything that’s wrong with the offense. The schedule has been brutal, playing the Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens – three talented, dominant defenses. However, there is cause for concern. Remember that in his first 10 starts in 2007, QB Anderson had 21 touchdowns passes, 10 interceptions, a 91.5 rating and a 7-3 record. In his past eight starts — including the first three of this season — he has 9 TDs, 13 INTs, a 64.2 rating and a 3-5 record.

Coach Romeo Crennel attributed this season’s struggles to Anderson missing two weeks in the preseason with a concussion. That, and the injuries to skill players Joe Jurevicius, Braylon Edwards, Stallworth and Josh Cribbs. Also of note is that the Browns played in good weather the first half of last season, then played in poor weather conditions down the stretch. Keep in mind the Browns started 9-0-1 over the total in 2007, but since then they are 8-1 under!

Indy offense: Peyton Manning and the Colts have not gotten it going just yet. Part of the reason is Manning missed all of preseason after mid-July surgery on his left knee. Also note that the team removed the “stretch play” from the playbook early in the season to ease pressure on his knee. It requires Manning to take the snap from center, pivot and quickly dash back at an angle to the right or left to deliver the handoff to running back Joseph Addai. Instead of having Manning execute his part of the stretch play, offensive coordinator Tom Moore has had him turn and pitch the ball to the running back. The Colts have been working on it in practice, however, and you should see it returning soon. Until then, they have started 2-1 under the total.

Indy run defense: It has been brutal. The Bears ran right over the Colts’ smallish defensive front in Chicago’s 29-13 victory. The Bears finished with 183 yards on 39 carries, 4.7 yards per carry. Sunday, more of the same as the Jaguars ran for over 200 yards.

KC offense: When the curtain comes down on this season, the Chiefs (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) are going to have the worst offense in the NFL. Fewest in yards, fewest in points. Probably fewest in fans, too. It doesn’t help to use 4 quarterbacks in your first 3 games, or three different starters in 3 games!

A week after RB Larry Johnson complained that he believed he was being phased out of the Chiefs’ plans, he rushed for 121 yards and a touchdown Sunday. But they still got blown out, a 38-14 loss at Atlanta. So the Chiefs have scored 10, 8 and 14 points in three games. They are 2-1 under the total. Paging Len Dawson! Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

College football season kicks off this weekend. While all the attention is focused on teams like Florida, USC and defending champion LSU, sports bettors are more interested in teams that are going to cover the weekly number. Every year there are teams that rise and fall based on expectations.

A year ago in this column I had Georgia as a team to keep an eye on. The Bulldogs had a tough defense, plus they returned 13 of 26 starters off the 2006 Chick-fil-A Bowl Championship team, one that ended the season on a 3-0 SU/2-0-1 ATS run while topping Virginia Tech. Georgia indeed was a money-maker last fall at 8-4 ATS (2-0 SU/ATS as a dog).

Of course, the Dawgs aren’t a sleeper team in 2008, sitting at No. 1 in some polls. Here are a few college football teams that may surprise against the spread, sailing a bit under everyone’s radar.

Georgia Tech: Georgia last year, I’ll take Tech in 08. They will be under the radar as sophomore quarterback Josh Nesbitt takes charge, one of 13 or more Jackets who’ll make their first college start. This has been a .500 team much of the last six years, so little is expected with so much youth.

However, there’s a new coach in town in Paul Johnson, the former Navy coach who did wonders at Annapolis. Johnson knows how to coach and how to recruit, particularly speed for his option-attack. The new young QBs are athletic enough to run Johnson’s option offense. The Georgia Tech offensive backfield contains two Parade All American running backs while five starters return to a very good defense. The Yellow Jackets are 6-2-1 ATS their last nine as a dog.

Oregon: All the focus is on USC in the Pac 10, but coach Mike Bellotti returns 12 starters to a team that was one injury away from playing in the national title game. They won’t have QB Nate Costa for the opener this week (knee), but backup sophomore QB Justin Roper started in the Sun Bowl win over South Florida and was outstanding, 17-of-30 passing for 180 yards, 4 TDs and no picks.

Remember that offensive coordinator Chip Kelly came to Oregon last season and brought a dynamite spread attack that averaged 38 points and over 215 yards rushing and passing! The Ducks also return a strong offensive line, led by senior All-America center Max Unger. They might be under the radar for the second straight season, after going 7-3 ATS as chalk and 2-0 SU/ATS as a dog in 2007.

Texas A&M: You won’t recognize the Aggies this season. Coach Dennis Franchione is gone and new Head Coach Mike Sherman takes over. Franchione liked to run the football all day, but Sherman and has brought in a pro-style attack. He also inherits a good nucleus of talent, with mobile quarterback senior Stephen McGee and junior RB Mike Goodson (711 yards).

The Aggies have major changes on defense, going to a 4-3 scheme under new coordinator Joe Kines. A year ago under a different coaching regime, the Aggies started two seniors at linebacker — Mark Dodge and Misi Tupe — in a 4-2-5 scheme. Kines prefers an aggressive, blitzing unit. With a favorable early schedule, the Aggies could be 4-0 when Big 12 play starts.

Arizona: Mike Stoops came to the Wildcats five years ago with great fanfare. But they have not made a bowl game, so the Arizona heat is on. Stoops has retooled with a young defense, one that has excess speed. Fortunately, the offense is loaded with 10 starters back.

Arizona had its most productive offense in Stoops’ four-year tenure in 2007 under first-year offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes, averaging 38 points and 385 yards. Senior quarterback Willie Tuitama and his receivers should be even more comfortable and productive in their second year in the spread system. He’s been starting since late in his freshman season. Senior WR Mike Thomas led the conference with 83 catches and 11 TDs.

UA is supposed to be 3-0 going into its Pac-10 opener at UCLA and new Bruins coach Rick Neuheisel on Sept. 20. In fact, they open the conference schedule with winnable games against UCLA, Washington and Stanford. This is the year for a bowl, and note that Arizona is 14-8 ATS its last 22 as an underdog.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

It’s not your imagination: The Dogs have been barking loudly this NFL preseason. In Week 1 the dogs were 9-5-2 against the number, which is not unusual with the first look at all the teams. But Week 2 was even more extreme, with the underdogs going 11-4 ATS (with one game lined at PK’em).

Two of the biggest surprises were the Raiders and Dolphins covering (though not to me, as I had Miami as a big play). Oakland had to travel 3,000 miles to play at Tennessee and play the Titans, who have done well in the preseason under Jeff Fisher. Don’t be fooled by the Raiders rolling up 380 yards, as most of it was on the ground (224 yards). One plus is that young quarterback JaMarcus Russell’s mobility allowed him to use his feet to escape trouble and allow his receivers to break their routes to come back to the ball. That’s a plus in preseason against second stringers, but could be less so in the regular season against onrushing NFL linemen.

Miami used two quarterbacks in Week 2, newcomer Chad Pennington and rookie Chad Henne (from my alma mater, Michigan). Reports are that the coaches like the two Chads a lot and they’ve been getting most of the reps. Which means you’re likely to see them in Week 3, before teams generally play the backups in Week 4 to prevent injuries to key players.

The Dolphins were a dog at Jacksonville but controlled the game against the listless Jags. Henne was 17-of-26 for 133 yards while Pennington was 5-of-6 for 55 yards. Best yet: No turnovers! Miami’s three scoring drives totaled 13 minutes and 46 seconds.

This was another preseason example of a new coach having an edge. The Dolphins won as a dog for their new coach, while the Redskins, under new coach Jim Zorn, are now 3-0 after a 13-10 win at New York. First-year head coaches can have an edge in preseason as they want their team to play well and win, while more established coaches often care much less.

Based on the play of the starters in a 19-14 loss to the Dolphins, put Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio in the established category now, after another playoff appearance last season. Del Rio was 15-5 SU, 14-6 ATS in preseason play before this year. Now he’s 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS with two weak performances. The Jaguars trailed 19-0 at home and the frontline contributors didn’t play at the level of a team labeled a title contender.

“It’s not near good enough, and it’s not acceptable,” Del Rio said. “I like for them to feel this because this is what happens when you don’t execute.” Expecting an improvement from their preseason-opening win over the Atlanta Falcons, the Jaguars watched the opposite occur as the starters struggled on both sides of the ball through the entire first half. The first-team offense failed to score and produced just 87 yards.

Meanwhile, the defense allowed Miami running back Ricky Williams to run roughshod (43 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts) while it gave up 98 yards through the air to newly acquired Dolphin quarterback Chad Pennington. Pennington finished with a 104.9 QB rating while leading Miami to two second-quarter scores. The Dolphins’ starters outgained the Jaguars’ frontline players 179-87.

“Sloppy half. We didn’t move the ball,” Del Rio said. “We got totally stuffed offensively. Defensively, we never really slowed them down.”

Perhaps more disturbing was the lackluster play of the Jaguars’ defensive front seven. Jaguars rookie defensive end Quentin Groves saw significant playing time, but he struggled to get to the quarterback and couldn’t consistently stop the run.

“We need to play better, that is the bottom line,” Jaguars defensive end Paul Spicer said. “That first half was football, but it sure wasn’t Jaguar football.” They get another chance this weekend at Tampa Bay, a team on a short week.

Another dog that has quietly impressed this preseason is Houston. The Texans had all kinds of injuries last season under second-year head coach Gary Kubiak, yet finished 8-8. He’s building a decent team, one that has balance on offense (he was the offensive coordinator in Denver under Mike Shanahan), plus an interesting young defensive front.

The Texans are now 2-0 SU/1-0-1 ATS this preseason after winning at New Orleans, 31-27. The offense rolled up 405 yards as Matt Schaub was absolutely brilliant, 14 for 16 with two touchdown passes, and a dazzling passer rating of 154.9. By the way, the Texans are 5-1 over the total their last 6 preseason games.

The Seahawks won as a home dog against the Bears, 29-26 in OT, but what really stood out was the terrible play (again) of the Chicago offense. The Seahawks had the edge in yards 431-205. For the second straight week, QB Rex Grossman and the first team offense played the first half. Yet, they have scored 3 and 5 points in those two halves (and the safety was not by the offense).

Grossman didn’t steer the Bears to a scoring drive Saturday, completing 9 of 15 passes for 74 yards and one interception for a passer rating of 44.9. “We didn’t play real smart,” Grossman said. The Bears have a short week before kicking off this weekend, on Thursday, at home against the 49ers. Week 3 is when the starters generally play the most. It’s a good time to fine tune offenses, but just remember that the dogs have been the story this preseason. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

Football is king and August kicks off the 2008 football season. Yes, exhibition football is largely meaningless for the players and coaches, with starters sitting more than playing. Yet, there are plenty of wagering angles and insights available to help identify soft betting numbers.

Teams have made offseason changes, bringing in new personnel on the field and on the sidelines. The Ravens, for instance, have a new coach in John Harbaugh. Former coach Brian Billick had a reputation for taking it easy on his players in August, yet the new coach has a very different approach. Baltimore players are calling it “Camp Hardball,” and several of the players are hurting, frustrated and tired.

Harbaugh has the players practicing in old game jerseys, instilling the philosophy that you should play like you practice. “We’re going to be ready for anything,” center Jason Brown said. Harbaugh’s practices are pad-thumping and helmet-cracking, clearly designed to add some discipline and toughness to what was a soft, underachieving Ravens team in 2008. That’s something to keep in mind in the preseason: Are the Ravens taking the exhibition games seriously and hitting hard for their new coach?

The opposite approach is being taken in Minnesota. Coach Brad Childress has dramatically altered his approach from the previous two years. Rather than overwork his players, Childress has allowed his team to practice in shorts and shoulder pads early in camp. We will see if the milder approach has any preseason effect.

Herm Edwards has a decent preseason record at 16-12 SU, 15-13 ATS. He has revamped the KC defense for this season, getting younger all around. However, the centerpiece of their rebuilding effort, top pick rookie defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey, injured his left knee in practice Saturday. Edwards described the injury as a sprain. “He’s probably going to be week-to-week,” Edwards said. Keep close tabs on Dorsey, as rookies often see more action in August than veterans.

Tank Tyler, a third-round draft pick last year, will replace Dorsey in the starting lineup, perhaps slowing Edwards’ rebuilding plan.

One betting angle to remember is that the defending champs have been awful (or overvalued) in preseason, at 2-10 SU/ATS the last three years. Part of it is that there’s only one defending champ each year and opposing teams are more likely to want to stick it to the champs, especially at home. Any type of extra motivation, no matter how seemingly insignificant, is essential when examining August exhibition lines. That label falls on the NY Giants this August. It’s interesting that after veteran Eli Manning, the Giants have new QBs in David Carr, Anthony Wright, and rookie Andre Woodson.

One team that is in bounce-back mode for 2008 is the New Orleans Saints. After reaching the NFC Championship game two years ago, the Saints were a flop in 2008, starting 0-4 SU/ATS and failing to reach the playoffs. They’ve added TE Jeremy Shockey, and also hope to have a healthy RB Deuce McAllister back.  Additionally, speedy WR Robert Meachem is playing after being inactive for all 16 games last season. He was a first round pick in 2007.

The defense also added talent, with free-agent defensive end Bobby McCray and 7th-round draft pick defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis coming on board. They also added cornerback Randall Gay via free agency.

Since QB play is so important in preseason, notice the Saints have veterans Drew Brees and Mark Brunell, plus Tyler Palko. All three are mobile.

For those of you who put a lot of emphasis on backup quarterbacks in preseason, take note of the San Francisco 49ers situation. J.T. O’Sullivan is listed as the No. 3 QB behind Alex Smith and Shaun Hill, but he’s having a great camp because of a head start. Mike Martz is the new offensive coordinator in San Francisco, and O’Sullivan played with Martz last season in Detroit. Martz has a complicated playbook, but O’Sullivan has looked the most game-ready thus far, perhaps giving a small edge to the 49ers in the second half of the first few preseason games. After all, small edges can mean significant paydays at the betting window!  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

One of the great things about sports wagering is the growth of creativity over the last decade. Futures wagers, prop bets, halftime wagering has all seen an increase, adding to the challenge and enjoyment of the industry. Other examples are “Games of the Year” and “Revenge Games” which crop up before the college and pro football seasons. Oddsmakers have various numbers posted on key games during the season, such as rivalry games like Oklahoma/Texas and NFL regular season showdowns. Let’s examine some of revenge situations on which to keep tabs long before the week of the contest.

Week 5, Steelers at Jaguars (-3): A key AFC clash and a rematch of last year’s playoff meeting. The Steelers enjoyed a successful campaign under first-year head coach Mike Tomlin, but it ended badly in the first round of playoffs, a 31-29 loss at home to these Jaguars. Pittsburgh also lost the regular season meeting, 29-22, at home to Jacksonville. Jacksonville became the first opponent to win twice in Pittsburgh in the same season in the Steelers’ 75-season history.

It was a game that Steelers felt they should have won, and maybe even were robbed. Steelers linebacker Larry Foote argued emphatically that Jacksonville’s offensive line held on QB David Garrard’s fourth-and-2 32 yard run to the Steelers 11 with 1:56 left. “I don’t want to get fined, but watch the long quarterback sneak,” Foote said. “Watch the middle of the defensive line and you’ll see. Watch what happens in the middle of the field. You see a big old hole open up and you’ll see the reason why.” Sounds like bad blood between these physical defenses.

Week 6, Patriots at Chargers: And speaking of bad blood…The Patriots shocked the 14-2 Chargers in the playoffs two years ago, 24-21, despite getting outplayed, then the two met twice last season. The Pats flogged the Chargers, 38-14, in the regular season, then won a more competitive AFC Championship game, 21-12.

San Diego was without its two biggest offensive stars in the playoff game, RB LaDainian Tomlinson and WR Antonio Gates, while QB Philip Rivers was hobbled with a bad knee. That ended an 8-game win streak for San Diego and first-year coach Norv Turner. This will be the first meeting in San Diego since the playoff game, when the Pats stomped all over the 50-year line bolt, prompting an outburst from Tomlinson. No doubt the players and fans will be into this one.

Week 6, Packers at Seahawks (-8): This is a rematch of a very ugly playoff game in a Green Bay blizzard. Brett Favre frolicked in the flurries the entire afternoon, throwing three touchdown passes as the Packers whipped the Seahawks 42-20 to reach the NFC Championship Game. Seattle jumped out to a 14-0 lead, then fell completely apart.

The Packers posted their biggest point total in postseason history. RB Ryan Grant set a team postseason record by running for 201 yards, and scored three times. It was the 7th straight playoff road loss for the Seahawks, but the rematch here will be in Seattle. Oh, and that kind name Favre has retired.

Week 9, Patriots at Colts: It’s always fun when QBs Tom Brady and Peyton Manning hook up. This is the only home game during a tough four-week stretch for the Colts, playing at Green Bay, Tennessee, home here, then at Pittsburgh. The Colts had won 3 in a row over Bill Belichick and knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs in the AFC Championship game before last season’s 24-20 Pats comeback win also in Week 9 at Indy.

That game was even more significant as both teams came in undefeated. It went way under the total, too, as the defensives were better than the high profile offenses. The last two meetings have been thrillers, with the Colts winning a 38-34 late comeback in the 2007 AFC title game.

Week 12, Colts at Chargers: The defending champion Colts were dethroned by the Chargers in a stunning playoff loss in January, 28-24. It was even more embarrassing for the Colts because the Chargers won with LaDainian Tomlinson and Philip Rivers on the sideline because of injuries. Billy Volek and Michael Turned had to step in.

Also, star tight end Antonio Gates wasn’t 100%, playing much of the day on a dislocated toe. “What happened last year doesn’t make it any easier this year,” Manning said after the game. “When you come back and commit yourself to the ‘07 season and you don’t finish it like you want to, it hurts.” They will probably think about it leading up to this one.

Week 15, NY Giants at Cowboys: It’s too bad the NFL scheduled this one so late in the season. It’s an NFC East rivalry game and teams always get up to play the defending champs. But the fans should REALLY be into this one. The Cowboys throttled the Giants twice last year in the regular season, 45-35 and 31-20, then went belly-up at home in the playoffs, losing 21-17.

Dallas tied the most wins in team history with 13, but followed it by tying an NFL record with a sixth straight playoff loss. Dallas was also the first No. 1 seed in the NFC to lose in this round since the NFL went to the 12-team playoff format in 1990. “It hurts,” said QB Tony Romo, who was 18-of-36 for 201 yards. “It’s tough right now.” It was a gut wrenching defeat, as “America’s Team” seemed headed toward a ninth trip to the Super Bowl, and maybe even a sixth championship. It must have hurt even more to see the Giants go on to win the Super Bowl. Good luck, as always this upcoming football season…Al McMordie.

With the NFL season just around the corner, this is good time to look at what might happen this fall on the gridiron. Future numbers are out for each team. A year ago in this column I looked at the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were projected at 8 ½ wins, and wrote: “Jacksonville might have been the best 8-8 football team in NFL history in 2006. Their offense ranked 10th in the NFL (3rd in rushing) while the defense was a dominating unit ranked second overall. This team beat the Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, shut out the Jets (41-0) and Steelers (12-0), and ran all over the champion Colts (44-17), all playoff teams.

So what happened? They couldn’t win the close games and stumbled on the road (2-6 SU/ATS). Coach Jack Del Rio is under the gun. They add a new offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter to try and spice up the passing game, and their road play should be better with some winnable games at Oakland, Houston, Kansas City, Tennessee, and Tampa Bay. 9 wins or more and a playoff berth are more likely.”

That analysis was spot-on, as the Jaguars were a beast in 2007, going 11-5 and winning a playoff game.

For 2008 the Patriots are projected for 12 wins, while the Colts and Chargers are at 11 and 10½ and the Jags are at 10, meaning the AFC is once again the conference to beat. Different factors come into play when assessing futures, in addition to offseason changes. With that in mind, let’s take a look at changes that took place with certain teams and how that might influence their status for the current over/unders.

Jets (7.5 wins): Eric Mangini has been coach for two years and the results have been remarkably different, a playoff team in 2006, a disastrous 4-12 season last year. So where are they? The fact is they’ve been a bad team statistically in both the last two years, bottoming out with the 26th overall offense and 29th defense in 2007.

For 2008, there is a QB controversy. Young QB Kellen Clemens was splitting time with veteran Chad Pennington this summer. Both looked bad last season, with a weak offensive line and few quality receivers to go to. They added offensive linemen Alan Faneca and Damien Woody (Faneca is very good, Woody is washed up).

The defense hasn’t really had the personnel to run Mangini’s preferred 3-4. They add DE Vernon Gholston (Ohio State), but lost DT Dewayne Roberson and LB Victor Hobson. The Patriots are high on Hobson, feeling he was miscast at outside LB with NY. The secondary has young CB Darrelle Revis and Justin Miller, who blew out his right knee in Week 2 at Baltimore. There appears to be a lot of youth and a lack of depth. The schedule has road games at Tennessee, Seattle, and long West Coast trips to San Fran, Oakland and San Diego. They’d better get a win in the opener at Miami, as from Weeks 2-5 they face the Pats, Chargers, Cardinals and Bengals. All in all, look for under 7½ wins.

Rams (6.5 wins): The Rams have been rebuilding the defense the last two years, adding DE Chris Long in 2008 and DE Adam Carriker in 2007. They improved against the run by 7 points last season from 2006, so they are slowly heading in the right direction. But the real strength of this team is the offense, with QB Marc Bulger, RB Steven Jackson, WR Terry Holt and rookie WR Donnie Avery (Houston), taken in the second round.

The Rams have a new offensive coordinator in Al Saunders, one of the best in the business, who ran high scoring offenses in K.C. under Dick Vermeil. He will have some fun with all this offensive talent. The Rams are off a train wreck season of 3-13 because of a ton of injuries, but remember back in 2006 they were 8-8 with the No. 11 ranked offense. The offense looks just as good, while the defense is stockpiling some young talent. Playing Miami, Buffalo, Atlanta and the 49ers twice should help them get over 6½ wins.

Steelers (9 wins): The Steelers had 10 wins last season with the No. 1 ranked defense. The offense was already good (17th overall, 3rd in rushing), with excellent balance, and they add Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall and Texas WR Limas Sweed. Mendenhall was a steal and gives them a power back alongside speedy RB Willie Parker.

They have a terrific QB in Ben Roethlisberger, plus WRs Hines Ward and former Ohio State speedster Santonio Holmes (942 yards, 8 TDs). They were dominant at home at 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS allowing 13.8 ppg and look like the best team in their division again. Over 9 wins.

Lions (6.5 wins): That 6-2 start last season was a complete mirage, as the team that miserable GM Matt Millen put together was flawed and vastly short on depth — again! The offensive line was terrible and doesn’t look that much better. The secondary was even worse. They didn’t take a defensive back in the draft until the 7th round, and lost CB Fernando Bryant, LB Boss Bailey, and DT Shaun Rogers.

They let go of offensive coordinator Mike Martz, who did a decent job with limited talent, and brought in new coordinator Jim Colletto, who brings in a simpler offense. Quarterback Jon Kitna turns 36 in September, is turnover prone and has been sacked an NFL-high 114 times over past two seasons. With Millen still in charge (which is a miracle), under 6½ wins is more likely. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

It’s almost as if last year’s bizarre football season has carried over into baseball. 2007 was an incredible season of shockers in football. Every week, it seemed, the No. 1 team in the nation got beat. We saw USC lose at home as a 41-point favorite over Stanford, the biggest upset ever based on wagering lines. No team had ever been a 36-point favorite or more and lost straight up.

Ohio State got upset by Illinois, but ended up backing into the national title game because West Virginia lost at home to Pitt as a 28-point favorite. It continued in the NFL playoffs with the fifth-seeded Giants stunning the 18-0 Patriots in the Super Bowl.

So what would be the baseball equivalent? Maybe the Tampa Bay Rays winning the AL pennant. Oh, that’s not that shocking a possibility, now, is it. The Angels, defending champion Red Sox and the Rays are the top teams in the AL. The Rays appear built for the long haul, with excellent starting pitching and an offense that has balance, tops in the AL in steals. Tampa Bay is also fourth in the AL in team ERA.

Young CF B.J. Upton is so talented and versatile he just filled in for 2B Akinori Iwamura in the leadoff spot. Upton has a .401 on-base percentage, 56 walks (second in the AL) and 22 stolen bases (third in the AL). A quality leadoff hitter who gets on base is of great value, not to mention a lineup that is flexible. Sports bettors should note that the Rays are 29-14 under the total at home! That’s what strong pitching and defense can do.

The Angels are also a team loaded with pitching and defense, and it’s no surprise they started 50-28 under the total.  And speaking of strangeness, the Angels took the cake this weekend, throwing a no-hitter….and losing! Jeff Weaver and reliever Jose Arredondo combined for eight no-hit innings Saturday at Dodger Stadium during the Angels’ 1-0 loss to the Dodgers.

The Dodgers became only the fifth team in the modern era of baseball to win a game without getting a hit. The last team to do it was Cleveland, which was no-hit by Matt Young of Boston for eight innings but won, 2-1, on April 12, 1992.

“This is pretty bizarre,” Dodgers Manager Joe Torre said. “This is definitely the craziest game I’ve never been part of,” Angels center fielder Torii Hunter added.

After getting shut out in consecutive games by the Dodgers, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Angels running more. Chone Figgins hurt his knee sliding into home plate two weeks ago against the Atlanta Braves, but is expected back this week.

Arizona looked like the best team in the NL early in the season, but then something happened – they had to play teams outside the crummy NL West. They’ve been in a funk, with barely a .500 record as a favorite. The pitching is fine, although there is concern about ace Brandon Webb’s arm. The team is 1-3 his last 4 starts. Injuries have cropped up, with Orlando Hudson hurting and right-handers Micah Owings and Edgar Gonzalez departing games this weekend with injuries. The offense has a .322 on base percentage, 6th worse in the NL. Don’t be surprised if they go shopping for a bat before the end of July.

The Yankees and Mets continue to struggle around .500 despite having the highest payrolls in the game. And it’s interesting to hear defensive finger-pointing from the Mets’ Johan Santana. The $137.5 million man has now dropped his last four decisions despite a sterling 3.01 ERA overall, and the team has lost each of his past five starts.  “All I can say is that I’m doing my job,” said Santana. “Other than that, there’s nothing else I can do. I can’t go out there and do the things that my teammates have to do.” Nice teammate! The most amazing thing about the Mets is that they are 10-9 as an underdog, yet 29-31 as chalk.

As far as bizarre off the field, former Houston pitcher Shawn Chacon gets the bizzaro medal, getting suspended for beating up GM Ed Wade. It was just three years ago the Astros played in the World Series, which shows how quickly things can turn around in sports. The Rockies shocked the NL a year ago by winning the pennant, so perhaps the Rays or some other surprise can keep the baseball world on its head with a big second half run. After all, surprises happen more often than you might realize.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

Baseball is unique for sports bettors because teams play in very different parks. Some parks are huge, perfect for pitchers (Seattle, Oakland, NY Mets) with large outfields and plenty of foul ground for extra pop outs. Other parks (many more so these days) are small, hitter-friendly places (Fenway, Philly, Pittsburgh, Skydome, Jacobs Field, Houston).

Stats and parks can help some trends stand out in baseball. For instance, the Blue Jays play in a hitter-friendly park in Toronto, one with a roof and artificial turf. Baseballs scoot like a rocket through the infield on turf and bounce like crazy in the outfield on line drives, many times off the wall. All of which can help the offense. Notice that Toronto scores fewer runs offensively on the road, where they are 24-14 under the total.

It hasn’t changed since switching managers, with Cito Gaston now running the show. Last week, they had their season-high seventh loss in a row, all to National League clubs, 6-3 to the Pirates, their second such venture under returning manager Gaston. They were also 6-15 against starting left-handers. Here are some other baseball trends to keep an eye on.

Orioles: Surprising Baltimore entered last weekend with the best interleague record (8-2) in the majors. The offense has heated up, on a 10-4 run over the total.

White Sox: Chicago hasn’t been impressive on the road, but at home the offense averages 5.8 runs. On the road, just 4 runs per game. That explains why this pitching-rich team started 23-13 under the total on the road. It also doesn’t help the offense that slugging first baseman Paul Konerko is on the 15-day disabled list.

Chicago might be ready for a tumble, as this team has a lot of problems. They are referring to combustabile manager Ozzie Guillen as “The Blizzard of Oz.” He apologized to fans after getting beat by the crosstown rival Cubs: “I want to apologize to White Sox fans for losing the game. I brought the wrong guy to pitch. Why did I pinch-hit Jim Thome? I was dumb.” If you have a future’s ticket on the White Sox, you can’t feel too good about it right now, unless it’s to win this weak division.

Angels: The amazing Angels are constructed as a team to look at under the total: Great pitching, great bullpen, great defense. The offense hasn’t been as good as anticipated because of injuries, ranking 11th in the American League. They probably aren’t that concerned, as long as they keep winning. A month ago, the Angels had three-quarters of their infield, two-fifths of their starting rotation and one of their top relievers on the disabled list at the same time.

Shutting down the Phillies on the road, 7-1 and 6-2, was impressive, winning as a dog each time. There’s really no substitute for great pitching. The Angels are on a 38-16-3 run under the total! With Chone Figgins and Erick Aybar now off the disabled list, the Angels are the healthiest they’ve been since early April. And with pitchers Kelvim Escobar and Chris Bootcheck having begun rehabilitation assignments, there’s a chance the team could be at full strength for the first time this season before the All-Star break. A future’s ticket on the Angels is probably better than the White Sox.

Braves: Like the Cubs, Atlanta continues to be great at home, a totally different team on the road. The Braves started 11-27 on the road, but 25-11 at home. Note that the offense struggles on the road, as the team is 28-9 under the total on the road!

Astros: Houston has fallen apart on a 3-17 run. And how about Astros pitcher Shawn Chacon lashing out after being told by manager Cecil Cooper that he had been removed from the starting rotation? “I think it’s horse (beep),” Chacon said. “That’s pretty much how I feel about it. Sums it up.” That also sums up his pitching, 0-3 with a 9.35 ERA in his last four starts. With Roy Oswalt struggling, the rotation is a huge problem with Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Brian Moehler and Brandon Backe.

Pirates: And speaking of struggling rotations, the Pirates have no trouble scoring runs on the road (5.4 runs pg) but do struggle at home, averaging 4.4 rpg. The pitching, though, really melts away from home. In a 3-game sweep at Chicago last week, the Pirates lost 16-5, 8-2 and 13-8. That sums up their road play. Pittsburgh is a remarkable 27-7 over the total on the road! Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Oakland A’s over the SF Giants. In their history, the A’s are an incredible 70-32 at home in Interleague action, and Oakland has a big advantage on the mound tonight. The A’s will hand the ball to Dana Eveland, who is 5-5 on the season, but has a very good 3.51 ERA. His mound opponent will be Kevin Correia, who has been dreadful this year with an ERA north of 5 runs per game, including 7.60 over his last three starts. These two pitchers hooked up back on June 15, and Eveland led the A’s to a 5-3 win, as he gave up just one earned run in 6 2/3 innings, while Correia was bombed for five runs in 5 1/3 innings. Take Oakland. Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.<br><br>At 10:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Oakland A’s over the SF Giants. In their history, the A’s are an incredible 70-32 at home in Interleague action, and Oakland has a big advantage on the mound tonight. The A’s will hand the ball to Dana Eveland, who is 5-5 on the season, but has a very good 3.51 ERA. His mound opponent will be Kevin Correia, who has been dreadful this year with an ERA north of 5 runs per game, including 7.60 over his last three starts. These two pitchers hooked up back on June 15, and Eveland led the A’s to a 5-3 win, as he gave up just one earned run in 6 2/3 innings, while Correia was bombed for five runs in 5 1/3 innings. Take Oakland. Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

It’s important for a team to have strong defense at key positions such as outfield, shortstop and catcher. Defense at centerfield, shortstop and catcher are where the term “Strong up the middle” comes from. Good teams use defense to assist their pitching, turn double plays and help keep team ERAs down.

From a betting standpoint, defense can be linked to totals along with the overall team’s pitching staff. For example, the young Marlins are prone to errors, the worst defensive team in the National League. They also have a young pitching staff that is fourth worst in the NL. Throw in the fact that their offense is very good, and that’s a more likely combination for high scoring games. Florida started 38-24 over the total, including 18-10 over on the road. Unearned runs may not count on a pitcher’s ERA, but it counts when you have a ticket on the over!

In the American League, the young Texas Rangers have made the most errors. Like Florida, they have a terrific offense but a terrible pitching staff, one ranked last in the AL. Yes, the Rangers have been an over machine with that combination, starting 39-26, including 21-13 over the total away from home.

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