Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 10/12/09


Tons to cover in today’s blog, so let’s get it started.

First off, remember to call my Free Pickphone each day for a comp play on tape. That number is 1-888-712-6800. Or, if you’d like to receive my personal best plays, leave your contact info and I’ll get in touch. That’s definitely not for those playing smaller dollars, but if you’re in the serious player category, it’s worth checking out.

The free plays written up here split, with Temple missing the number in their Saturday win and the Giants blowing out the hapless Raiders on Sunday. I really like this week’s college card, so hopefully, I’ll find a good one for Saturday.

Here’s a lengthy rundown on the week that was in the colleges.

Nebraska was down 12-0 against Missouri heading into the final quarter, but the Cornhuskers went wild down the stretch with 27 unanswered points. Missouri QB Gabbert had a major meltdown that helped Nebraska, as he was just 2/10 for 11 years and two picks in that final quarter.

Dan LeFevour had another huge game for Central Michigan. The Chippewas QB threw for 318 yards and three scores and ran for three more as CMU wiped out Eastern Michigan in a big revenge game.

Vanderbilt has a brutal red zone offense and it cost them at Army. The Commodores had to settle for a pair of FG’s on deep drives in regulation, and then they fumbled the ball away in OT, allowing Army to snare a home victory against an SEC opponent.

Purdue continues to be extremely prone to turnovers. The Boilermakers played giveaway again Saturday at Minnesota with three picks. They also gave up a TD on a blocked FG attempt and the Gophers got another easy score following a shanked Purdue punt.

Ron Zook decided to switch QB’s, but it did no good as Illinois got smashed at home by Michigan State. Eddie McGee was just 2/11 before handing the reigns back to Juice Williams. The Illini got a late score to make the tally a little more respectable, but this was an easy win for the Spartans.

Boston College has been okay at home, but awful in their two road games. They had zero first downs at the half and only 28 yards in offense through the first three quarters as they were pummeled at Virginia Tech.

Tennessee obliterated Georgia, outgaining the Bulldogs 472-241. Georgia was terrible against the Vols, and their only two TD’s came on a pick-six and a kickoff return.

Case Keenum and Houston Cougars had an early hangover off their first loss, but they got untracked and defeated Mississippi State. Keenum threw for 441 yards and had four TD passes.

Kansas got a real battle from Iowa State, but the Jayhawks prevailed thanks to Todd Reesing’s 448 passing yards along with four TD’s.

Kentucky had a chance to tie South Carolina, but missed on a two-point conversion with less than five minutes to play. The Gamecocks were able to run out the clock to preserve the win.

Temple had the early 10-0 lead against Ball State, but the Cardinals came back to take a brief lead thanks to a Temple fumble that was recovered in the end zone. The Owls put together two TD drives, and Ball State scored on the final play of the game to get within five points.

Surprising Wyoming dominated New Mexico. The Lobos actually led 7-0, scoring right after a botched fake punt by the Cowboys, but Wyoming took over after that and registered the easy win.

Tyler Sheehan thew for 505 yards and four TD’s as Bowling Green overcame a double digit fourth quarter leads at Kent State. Sheehan ran for the game winner with five seconds remaining. Freddie Barnes had an amazing day for the Falcons, catching 22 passes for 278 yards and scoring 3 TD’s.

Tulane won the stats but lost the game as they helped Marshall out with four turnovers.

Pittsburgh was down 21-6 and the crowd was booing them. But the Panthers rallied for a pair of scores and then beat UConn at the gun with a FG.

Virginia has gotten hot the last two weeks, easing the pressure on head coach Al Groh. Jameel Sewell is finally healthy again, and he had a terrific game as the Cavaliers routed Indiana.

Oregon scored three very quick TD’s to break open their game with UCLA. The Ducks got one score each from their offense, special teams and defense to take control of the game.

Ohio State got destroyed on the stat sheet by Wisconsin. But the Buckeyes had two interception returns for TD’s, and got another seven on a kickoff return. They also stuffed the Badgers on a deep drive in the fourth quarter to preserve an incredibly fortunate spread win.

Mississippi played a whale of a defensive game against Alabama. But Rebels QB Jevan Snead had an awful day, going just 11/34 with four picks. Snead may well be the biggest individual flop in the country off the pre-season hype.

Duke pulled off a big upset with 21 unanswered late points as they won at NC State. The final score came on a punt that accidentally hit the leg of a Wolfpack player.

Utah got a big fight from Colorado State and trailed by two TD’s at Fort Collins. But the Utes showed plenty of poise and recovered to rally for the 24-17 win.

Akron killed themselves with mistakes in a home loss to Ohio. The Zips had five turnovers and also gave up a TD on a blocked punt.

Wake Forest blew out Maryland. The Demon Deacons were up 42-17 and Riley Skinner had a monster game with 360 passing yards and four TD’s. The final score was misleading as the Terps had a pair of meaningless late TD’s.

North Texas gave Louisiana-Lafayette TD’s on an interception and a blocked punt, but were still up double digits in the fourth quarter. The Ragin’ Cajuns rallied to get the narrow win, but not the cover.

Oregon State’s win over Stanford was not as close as the 38-28 score might indicate. This one was all Beavers and the Cardinal had two late TD’s to make it respectable.

Texas trailed Colorado 14-3 before they woke up and rolled. The Buffaloes finished with a meager 127 yards of offense.

TCU pretty much dominated Air Force. But the Horned Frogs had two red zone turnovers, and another fumble led to a late score by Air Force that created a 20-17 final score. It wasn’t really a close game.

Southern Miss and Louisville played a very exciting game that had loads of ebbs and flows. The Cardinals got the home win on a late FG in a real thriller.

East Carolina went down at SMU as the Mustangs cashed in TD’s on an interception and a blocked FG.

Finally, there’s Idaho. The Vandals overcame three Nathan Enderle picks and rallied to defeat San Jose State on the road. Idaho is now 5-1 and I would have to rate the Vandals as the nation’s most surprising team to date. They can achieve bowl eligibility with a win over Hawaii this Saturday.

I’m back on Tuesday with some NFL notes from the weekend.

Posted by Dave Cokin on 11-10-2009 | (1) Comment

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 10/2/09


Please note that my daily blog can now be found at http://cokin.wordpress.com

I will continue to update here for the next several days, but please bookmark the new address as I will eventually be condensing everything into the one site.

Before getting to this week’s free college play (4-0 so far on the plays I’ve posted in my blog) a reminder that I have a a huge winner waiting with my Blowout of the Week. These plays are 3-1 out of the gate, including last week’s cinch with Texas A&M. I see this week’s play as a complete annihilation. Get it now with a GREAT GUARANTEE for only $49 at 1-888-389-7223.

This week’s free college opinion is on one of the bigger games on the Saturday slate, as Michigan and Michigan State renew hostilities at East Lansing.

Michigan’s (4-0 SU/2-2 ATS) second season under Rich Rodriguez is certainly working out better than his first in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines have been a very exciting team, and QB Tate Forcier is establishing himself as one of the best young QB’s in the game. Last week’s win was another thriller, a 36-33 comeback against Indiana, although Michigan did appear to benefit from a very controversial call late in the game that preserved the victory. The Wolverines brought in veteran coach Greg Robinson to run the defense, and the early returns are not so hot. They allowed 490 yards to Notre Dame and 179 yards rushing to Eastern Michigan. Michigan followed that up by relinquishing 467 yards, including 197 on the ground to the Hoosiers last week, so there is still loads of work to do on the stop unit. Injury note: Michigan starting center David Molk will miss three to five more weeks after breaking a bone in his foot.

Poor Michigan State (1-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) can’t catch a break. Coach Mark Dantonio has gotten good production out of sophomore QB Kirk Cousins (7 TDs, 2 INTs), but continues to also use sophomore QB Keith Nichol (4 TDs, 2 INTs) in a 2-headed rotation. Offense hasn’t been the problem, averaging 31 ppg. The defense has been poor, and the Spartans were run over last week, dropping a 38-30 decision at Wisconsin. That game was nowhere near that close, as MSU scored two very late TD’s to make the final tally respectable. In a wild 33-30 loss at Notre Dame, the offense had 459 yards, but the defense gave up 437 (304 passing). The previous week Central Michigan stunned MSU in a come-from-behind 29-27 upset, but the Chippewas were absolutely the better team on the field in that contest. This pass defense is bad and faces another tough test here.

Michigan is a little bit phony at 4-0, but they’re finding ways to win and have loads of confidence. Michigan State is going the other way, and is finding ways to lose. The Wolverines are motivated by revenge from last year’s loss at Ann Arbor, and I think they’re simply the better team at this juncture, so it’s Michigan plus the points for me.

Posted by Dave Cokin on 02-10-2009 | No Comments

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 9/28/09


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Here’s a rundown of some of the noteworthy occurrences of the just completed college football weekend.

Wake Forest really let one get away at Boston College. The Demon Deacons scored two late TD’s to force overtime, and then proceeded to hold BC to a FG in the extra session. It appeared that Wake was about to get the big comeback win, as they had a first and goal, but QB Riley Skinner fumbled and the Eagles escaped with the win.

Michigan barely defeated surprising Indiana, and the Wolverines appeared to benefit greatly from a bad call that was remarkably not overturned by the replay official. The Wolverines are now 4-0, but they’ve been extremely fortunate in two of those wins, and all four games were at home.

Temple obliterated Buffalo in a big revenge game for the Owls (my Revenge Game of the Week on the service), and they took full advantage of several Bulls mistakes in the blowout. Temple had a pick-six plus a punt return for a TD and they were also +3 in turnovers. Buffalo was perhaps the most opportunistic team I’ve ever seen last year, but the worm has definitely turned for the Bulls.

Wisconsin dominated Michigan State much more than the 38-30 final tally indicates. The Badgers led 38-17 before the Spartans made it respectable with a pair of very late scores.

Rutgers had an easy time with Maryland, and the inept Terrapin offense helped the Scarlet Knights out by letting them score a pair of touchdowns on turnovers. Maryland fans are growing increasingly unhappy with head coach Ralph Friedgen and he could be in trouble.

Fresno State gave Cincinnati a tremendous battle, much to my surprise, as I had a strong call on the Bearcats. In fact, the Bulldogs dominated the Bearcats. Fresno had a massive 290-57 edge on the ground and owned the ball for 44 minutes. But Cincy managed to find a way to win and that’s now three straight tough losses for Fresno State.

Dan LeFevour had another monster game for Central Michigan as the Chippewas annihilated Akron. LeFevour threw four TD passes and outrushed the Zips all by himself in the very lopsided CMU win. Central Michigan was my strongest personal play this week, so I was very pleased with this result.

Mississippi State is raising some eyebrows with their inspired play. The Bulldogs came within a whisker of upsetting LSU. The Tigers needed a clutch goal line stand at the end of the game to preserve the win. LSU was very lucky to win this game. Miss State dominated the stats, but the Bulldogs were -4 in net turnovers and also gave up a TD on a punt return. Incredibly, LSU had only 30 yards rushing on 31 carries in the win.

Texas A&M was my Blowout of the Week and the Aggies got a phenomenal game from Jerrod Johnson in the easy win over UAB. Johnson was in on six touchdowns against the hapless Blazers defense. A&M is an improved team as they’re much more comfortable this season running Mike Sherman’s offense.

My condolences to anyone who gave the points with Air Force. This was the absolute bad beat of the week. The Falcons led 26-2 before San Diego State scored a late TD. The Aztecs missed the extra point, though, so Falcons backers looked safe. Until the final play of the game, that is. The Aztecs scored a TD on a batted Hail Mary to end the game, making the final score a totally misleading 26-14.

UNLV has now lost 20 consecutive MWC road games, and the latest defeat was all their fault. The Rebels were -4 in turnovers and blew two opportunities to at least force overtime with a late FG. First, they turned an already lengthy FG attempt into an even longer one with a ridiculous delay of game penalty. Then the holder fumbled the snap, Wyoming recovered and the Rebels went home with another road loss.

Florida was fired up off the less than sensational effort against Tennessee and shredded Kentucky. But QB Tim Tebow, already battling a flu bug, absorbed a huge hit that resulted in a concussion when his head hit the knee of a teammate, and there’s no word yet on whether he may miss any action.

Oregon has evidently shed the last remnants of the season-opening fiasco at Boise State. The Ducks put it all together in a total demolition of California. Oregon owned a whopping 524-207 yardage edge as they slaughtered the Golden Bears. Jahvid Best’s Heisman hopes took a huge hit as the superstar Cal back was held to 55 yards.

South Florida had a first-time starter at QB and was battling a revved up “White Out” sellout at Florida State. But the Bulls were the more excited team and dominated the Seminoles. USF won the ground game 153-19 and Florida State lost four fumbles. Redshirt freshman BJ Daniels, a Tallahassee kid who was not heavily recruited by his hometown school, threw for both South Florida scores in the upset.

Georgia Tech put it together as they crushed North Carolina. The Tar Heels had shown a tough defense coming in, but they were overwhelmed by the Yellow Jackets. Tech dominated with a 24-8 first down edge and outgained UNC 406-154. The Tar Heels were also -3 in turnovers.

Idaho continues to be a surprise. The Vandals have already equaled their win total for the last two seasons combined and Saturday’s win at Northern Illinois was not as close as the score. Idaho was up 34-16 before the Huskies rallied to make it close.

Colorado State dug themselves a big hole at BYU. The Rams had two very costly early turnovers that led to easy scores for the Cougars. BYU also cashed in after what might have been the worst onside kick in the history of football, plus they stopped the Rams with a late goal line stand. In actuality, this game was much closer than the 42-23 final.

North Carolina State had a great comeback to defeat Pittsburgh. The Wolfpack scored the game’s final 21 points and then put together a big defensive stand to preserve the win. Pitt was in position to at least force OT when they recovered a fumble at the NC State 8-yard line, but the Wolfpack defended superbly and earned a big win.

Miami Ohio killed Kent State on the stat sheet. They had a 26-13 FD edge and won the yardage battle, 552-250. But the Redhawks were their own worst enemy, committing five turnovers that allowed the Golden Flashes to come away with the win.

Notre Dame coughed up a double digit lead against Purdue, but the Fighting Irish came back to win in the waning moments. QB Jimmy Clausen was clutch for Notre Dame, directing the game-winning drive despite being clearly hobbled by a turf toe injury.

Middle Tennessee State took advantage of a slew of North Texas blunders to garner a road win. The Blue Raiders were +5 in turnovers and were also helped when a Mean Green TD on a punt return was wiped out by penalty.

New Mexico State got the lead over rival New Mexico with a last minute TD pass. The Lobos then put together a quick drive that allowed a 47-yard FG attempt that would have forced overtime, but James Oho missed the kick and the Aggies got the win. It’s now looking more and more like an 0-12 season for New Mexico.

Baylor smashed Northwestern State, but the Bears aren’t celebrating. QB Robert Griffin was lost for the season with a knee injury, and that’s an absolutely devastating loss for Baylor. Griffin is one of the most valuable individual components on any team in the country and it’s tough to envision the Bears surviving this loss.

TCU took a huge step toward crashing the BCS party with a key win at Clemson. Head coach Gary Patterson insisted that he’s “not drinking that Kool-Aid” but there is no doubt that the Horned Frogs are now in the big bowl mix.

Houston took an even bigger step toward making life miserable for the major bowl committees with a spectacular 95-yard late drive that got them past Texas Tech. The Cougars now have two really big wins over high caliber Big 2 entries and while they have at least three tough games remaining on their slate, they are squarely in the BCS picture.

Boise State may have to root for both Houston and TCU to lose somewhere along the line. The Broncos remained perfect with an easy win at Bowling Green. But with a trip to Tulsa the only legitimate test the rest of the way for Boise State, they’re going to have to hope for a loss by either the Horned Frogs or Cougars. Boise is a tremendous program, but I cannot see three non-BCS schools crashing the January party and the Broncos are third in line thanks to their residence in the ultra-soft WAC.

I’m back on Wednesday with an early injury update plus other college notes.

Posted by Dave Cokin on 27-09-2009 | No Comments

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 9/27/09


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Free college plays here at my blog are now 4-0 with the outright Saturday win by UL-Monroe. Here’s a look at Sunday free call in the NFL.

The Packers went flat last week and paid for it with an outright home loss to the Bengals. That’s bad news for the inept Rams, who are likely to catch the clearly superior Green Bay squad in a nasty mood. The Packers can be had defensively, but St. Louis just doesn’t seem to have much firepower on offense to take advantage. And while the Rams are acceptable on defense, I cannot see them shutting down the potent Packers. I generally prefer home dogs to road favorites in this league, but this is one spot where the chalk looks right, so I’ll go with Green Bay for my free Sunday selection.

Posted by Dave Cokin on 26-09-2009 | No Comments

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 9/25/09


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It’s under the radar, but one of the better games on this week’s slate should be the Sun Belt clash between UL-Monroe and Florida Atlantic. These two teams have staged some real thrillers, with the largest margin in the series being a seven-point Monroe win in 2005. The other four meetings have been 17-13 Monroe, 21-19 FAU, 33-30 (OT) Monroe, and last year’s 29-28 FAU victory. That game has to still be sticking the craw of the Warhawks. They blew a 21-0 lead, and then missed a mid-range FG that would have wrapped up the win. The Owls put together a late drive and threw a TD pass with just a handful of seconds remaining to pull out the win. The underdog has gotten the money in all five battles, and while FAU has excelled as conference home chalk, UL-Monroe has been almost automatic as road dogs in league play. In fact, covering as a road is an old tendency for Warhawks coach Charlie Weatherbie going back to his Navy days.

From a fundamental standpoint, I like the road team’s chances of winning the battle in the trenches. UL-Monroe has a ton of experience on both front lines, and it looks to me like the Warhawks have a good chance to win the ground game duel by a decent margin. That’s always a big key for me, as I have a strong preference for underdogs with an edge in that aspect of the game.

Given the incredibly tight series history, the revenge factor and the edge in experience and fundamentals, UL-Monroe plus the points looks like the right side to me.

Posted by Dave Cokin on 25-09-2009 | No Comments

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 9/24/09


I’m a great believer in fundamental football. Beat the other team in the trenches, run the football and stop the opponent from doing so. I’ve been accused of being very “old school” in my refusal to back off my belief that this is the best way to win football games. So be it. I’ve got the stats to back up what I’m saying.

Over the past 11 years in college football, teams that have outrushed their opponents by a margin of 2/1 or better have won the game better than 88% of the time. And for those keeping score the way we do it here in Las Vegas, those teams have also covered the spread at a clip of more than 73%. There is simply no argument against those numbers.

It’s not like I have anything against passing the football. Balancing the offense is of paramount importance, as the idea is not simply to overpower the opposition, it’s also to deceive them as much as possible. But the ability to run the football, as well as stopping the run, translates into ball control, and it’s also at the core of being able to protect leads. The opponent can’t come back if they don’t have the football.

The argument against this philosophy is hollow. Detractors point to the great success Mike Leach has enjoyed at Texas Tech. It’s true that the Red Raiders have done well throwing the ball all over the field. I’ll even accept the premise that installing the spread and throwing the ball 50+ plays virtually every week put the Texas Tech program on the map. But I’ll also argue that now that the Red Raiders have reached a consistently high level, Leach would be better off throwing a little less and running a little more. Because the fact remains that while this has become a very strong program, they’re still lingering just outside that truly elite circle.

In fact, it’s interesting to note that the Red Raiders actually did put up their best offensive and defensive rushing numbers under Leach last season. I don’t feel it’s a coincidence that they enjoyed their most successful campaign with 11 victories and a good argument that they merited a BCS-bowl invite.

I’ll grudgingly accept the premise that for a program that’s mostly mediocre and unable to attract high level talent, a gimmick offense can be an equalizer that will conceivably help a program get on the winning track toward respectability. But I’ll still stick to my ardent belief that come the fourth quarter, the ability to run the football is crucial. If a team that can run the ball gets the lead, good luck trying to rally against them. But those teams that cannot run the ball, or simply refuse to do so, are simply not as good at protecting leads. There’s absolutely a greater margin for error and that means more chances for the opponent to rally.

By the way, in case you’re wondering why I brought this up, I’m still steaming over last week’s collapse by SMU in a game they should have had wrapped up. Yes, I was on the Mustangs as they dominated Washington State. This was an easy winner that turned into a very aggravating loser simply because June Jones refused to run the football. Instead, QB Bo Levi Mitchell helped hapless Wazzou back into the game with a pair of picks that went for TD’s, and then he also threw one in overtime that sealed the loss for SMU. An aberration? Nope. Just one week earlier, the Mustangs did almost the same exact thing in blowing nearly all of a huge lead at UAB, only surviving when the Blazers missed on a two-point conversion that could have forced overtime.

In any event, file this column as food for thought for those of you attempting to pick college football winners. I’m not suggesting you should simply wager against one-dimensional entries that do nothing but throw the ball. But I can tell you that my preference will continue to be on teams that figure to dominate the rushing stats. Those numbers simply cannot be ignored.

I’ll be back on Friday with this week’s free college football play.

Posted by Dave Cokin on 24-09-2009 | No Comments

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 9/21/09


Here’s the rundown on several of the just concluded weekend’s college games, along with a handful of injury notes.

Ball State nearly won at Army on Saturday, but did themselves by getting four passes intercepted, including a pick-6 that decided the game… Northern Illinois went on the road and smashed a Big 10 opponent. Purdue returned a punt for a 7-0 lead, but the Huskies scored the next 28 points and coasted to the upset… Michigan was my free play Saturday and they got the job done, but it wasn’t as easy as the final score might indicate. Eastern Michigan was down just seven at the break, before the Wolverines ran them out of Ann Arbor after halftime… Syracuse got its first win under their new coach, rallying from a late deficit to win by three at the buzzer against NorthwesternBoston College was beyond inept in a loss at Clemson. The Eagles managed only four FD’s and an incredible 54 yards of offense in going down at Death Valley… Western Michigan needed a win after an 0-2 start and blew out hapless Miami, Ohio in game more lopsided than the final score indicates. The Broncos led 48-6 before giving up some meaningless points… Mississippi State had a terrific win at Vanderbilt. The Bulldogs held the Commodores to just 157 total yards in the 15-3 win… Arizona dominated their first two games, but the tables were turned on the Wildcats at Iowa. The Hawkeyes completely shut down Arizona, with the Wildcats getting their points on an interception TD plus a garbage time TD by the offense… Akron was favored at home against Indiana, but the Zips had problems on offense with QB Chris Jacquemain suspended. The Hoosiers picked off four errant Akron passes in grabbing an easy road win… Southern Miss avoided the upset with a great rally against Virginia. The big play was a 100-yard kickoff return that jump started the Golden Eagles, and they ended up scoring the game’s final 21 points… USC was stunned by Washington, despite a 250-56 edge on the ground. Teams almost never lose games with that kind of rushing disparity. But the Trojans gave up the ball three times with no takeaways and Washington earned a huge upset win before an insane home crowd… Auburn scored 21 of the game’s final 24 points as they came from behind to defeat West Virginia. Five Auburn picks were the difference, and they scored the TD on the last one to wrap up the victory… Florida was up 23-6 over Tennessee and driving for another score. But Tim Tebow’s second turnover of the game allowed the Volunteers to stay in the game. Moral victories in the SEC are rare, but I believe Tennessee comes out of the game feeling good about themselves… SMU flat out blew their game against Washington State. The Mustangs won the stats by a mile and had a big lead. But QB Bo Levi Mitchell was picked for TD’s twice and the pathetic Cougars ended up kicking a FG to win in overtime. More on this game and the refusal of June Jones to run the football in tomorrow’s blog… Colorado State annihilated a very disappointing Nevada entry. The Rams led 35-6 before surrendering a couple of garbage time TD’s. The Wolf Pack are off to a miserable start and I’m not really sure why… Buffalo might well have been the most fortunate team I’ve ever seen last year, but the worm is starting to turn for the Bulls. They led Central Florida 17-7 at the break, but UCF scored one TD and three FG’s while scoring a second half shutout to secure a needed home win… Rice actually won the stats against Oklahoma State and gave the Cowboys a much tougher game than expected. Looks like OSU had a major hangover off the upset loss the prior week, and they were lucky to escape with the win against the lowly Owls… Baylor laid a big egg in a stunningly poor performance against Connecticut. The Bears had several advantages coming into the game, but were badly outplayed by the Huskies… Iowa State was a big winner against Kent State, but the truth is neither team was sharp in a game that featured nine turnovers… BYU was a complete flop against Florida State. The Cougars were a disastrous -5 in the turnover department and in the process took themselves out of the BCS picture in a phenomenally ugly effort… Rutgers was up 23-0 in the fourth quarter before giving up a couple of scores to a gritty Florida International squad. The Scarlet Knights made a QB change for this game which will benefit them this season, but right now, the offense is a work in progress… North Texas had no shot to begin with at Alabama. But minus their QB and best OL, this one was really ugly as the Mean Green garnered only seven FD’s in the lopsided Crimson Tide romp… Ralph Friedgen’s seat at Maryland just got warmer. The Terrapins lost at the gun to Middle Tennessee State, and that’s back to back wins over the Terps for the Sun Belt entry… South Carolina got a real battle from Florida Atlantic. This was a one-point game at the half, before the Gamecocks got untracked and too care of the Owls… Troy rebounded from two very bad games to handle UAB, but the Trojans still managed to break a school record by committing 15 penalties in the win.

Here’s a look at tonight’s MLB hookup between the Cubs and Brewers. The Brewers are hot, winning five straight heading into tonight’s hookup with the Cubs. The scheduling dynamics favor Milwaukee, with the Cubs playing on Sunday night in St. Louis. Tom Gorzelanny doesn’t match up especially well with this lineup, and the Cubs lefty has been working only sporadically out of the bullpen lately. Braden Looper is no great shakes, but he wins more than he loses at home and the team analysis puts me on the Brewers tonight.

Posted by Dave Cokin on 20-09-2009 | No Comments

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 9/18/09


I’ve got my free opinion for this week’s college action included here, as well as some added injury notes of importance.

Arizona had upgraded star TE Rob Gronkowski to probable status, but it looks like his back injury hasn’t healed enough for him to play. Gronkowski is now listed as out for Saturday’s game… Illinois is off this week, but they won’t have LB Martez Wilson when they return to action. He’s now out for the season with a neck injury. This is a significant blow to the Illini, as Wilson was their leading returnee in both tackles and sacks… Ohio State has lost right tackle Jim Cordle for perhaps as much as one month with a bad ankle. Cordle is the most experienced lineman for the Buckeye and his versatility on the front line will be missed… Florida Atlantic has suspended Cortez Gent, its best wideout, for conduct detrimental to the team. The length of the suspension has not been announced… Virginia QB Vic Hall is doubtful for Saturday with numerous injuries. Jameel Sewell will get the starts under center in the meantime… Washington State has lost yet another player, as WR Jeshua Anderson has decided to concentrate exclusively on track. The Cougars depth chart is taking an absolute beating… Boston College has another injury, with DT Damik Scafe unlikely to play Saturday.

Here’s my take on this week’s clash between Eastern Michigan and Michigan. You might think Michigan is in a letdown spot after battling rival Notre Dame last week. However, take a look at Eastern Michigan’s situation: At Northwestern last week, and now at Michigan. And this is a bad Eastern Michigan (0-2 SU/1-1 ATS) defense, one that got steamrolled by the Army ground game in the opener, a 27-14 loss. The Eagles have a new coach in former Michigan defensive coordinator Ron English. The offense has senior QB Andy Schmitt (15 TDs, 8 INTs in 2008), but this defense was awful and has been for a while. They allowed 303 rushing yards to Army. Northwestern had the Eagles blown out, up 21-0 and seemingly on their way to a rout. Give the Eagles credit for taking advantage of very sloppy Northwestern play in mounting a very surprising comeback. But I feel this was more a result of the big favorite letting up and almost getting bitten in the process.

Michigan (2-0 SU/ATS) is back! At least for a week. The Wolverines are off a thrilling 38-34 win over No. 18 Notre Dame on Saturday, as freshman QB Tate Forcier (5 TDs, 1 INT) continues to impress, completing 23-of-33 for 240 yards, 2 TDs and 1 pick, plus running for 70 yards. Forcier’s 5-yard touchdown pass to Greg Mathews with 11 seconds left capped a game-winning drive. The defense was also a problem, allowing 28.9 ppg, so they bring in new defensive coordinator Greg Robinson, the former Syracuse coach and DC at Texas. They allowed 490 yards to Notre Dame. The Wolverines also had a 31-7 win over a good MAC team, Western Michigan, with 438 yards (242 rushing). I don’t see a letdown taking place here. Instead, I like the Wolverines to build off the big win and deliver a strong statement against the outmanned Eagles.

Posted by Dave Cokin on 17-09-2009 | No Comments

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 9/17/09


Georgia Tech and Miami get the college football week rolling with a key early season ACC clash on Thursday night. That’s followed by a solid Friday night duel in the WAC between Boise State and Fresno State, and then it’s on to another huge Saturday slate.

Here’s a rundown on some of the key injury info pertaining to teams in action this week.

Arizona gets a key component back this week, as star TE Rob Gronkowski is slated to see his first action of the season… Army is listing freshman QB Trent Steelman as probable for Saturday. He suffered a rib injury last week, so how much he’ll be able to play may still be in question… Bowling Green will be without safety PJ Mahone this week. He has been indefinitely suspended for violating team rules. Mahone was the leading tackler for the Falcons both this season… Colorado will apparently have Cody Hawkins under center after all. The Buffaloes QB was knocked silly late last week, but despite a mild concussion, he’s listed as probable for this week’s action. Colorado also gets suspended WR Markques Simas, injured RB Rodney Stewart and LB Michael Sipili back for Saturday’s game… Colorado State might get Shelley Smith back on Saturday. The Rams best OL missed the first two games with an ankle injury but he’s now upgraded to questionable… Connecticut will start Cody Enders at QB with Zach Fraser out for at least two weeks. Enders missed some practice time this week with the flu, and there’s speculation impressive true freshman Mike Box may take some snaps. Meanwhile, the Huskies are hopeful star LB Scott Lutrus can play after missing last week’s game with a neck injury… Dominique Lindsay is now doubtful for East Carolina. Lindsay is the leading carrier for the Pirates, but they have a good backup in Brandon Jackson… The injuries along the defensive front continue to pile up for Florida Atlantic. The latest Owl to get hurt is DE Jamere Johnson. He’s the third key member of the FAU defensive front to get injured… Good news for Iowa, as they will get top OL Bryasn Bulaga back for Saturday. He missed last week’s game with an illness. The Hawkeyes also get some relief at CB with Shaun Prater’s suspension having concluded… Kent State suffered a big loss last week when Eugene Jarvis went down. He was one of the top running backs in the MAC. Jarvis is done for the season with a kidney injury… Kentucky fullback, an outstanding blocker, is good to go after sitting out the Wildcats season opener with an ankle injury… Maryland has lost CB Nolan Carroll for the season after the senior broke his leg last week…Memphis is making a QB change with soph Tyler Bass moving ahead of struggling Arkelon Hall on the depth chart… Miami gets a pair of key defenders back for this week’s action. Both DE Eric Moncur and exciting redshirt freshman SS Vaughn Telemaque have been cleared to play. But CB DeMarcus Van Dyke is out with a concussion and there’s also evidently been a flu bug that’s caused some players to miss practice time the last few days… Michigan starting guard David Moosman’s injured shoulder will keep him on the sidelines this week… Big injury for Middle Tennessee State, as top RB Phillip Tanner is down with a bad knee and will be out for some time. He’s not explosive, but Tanner’s absence will be felt in short yardage situations for the Blue Raiders… The flu issues are now behind North Carolina, but the Tar Heels will likely be minus TE Zack Pianalto, who was off his best career game. He has a foot injury… North Texas starting QB Riley Dodge will miss at least this week’s game with a shoulder injury. The Mean Green will also be without starting LT Victor Gill, and his backup, Matthew Menard, is out for the year… Oklahoma State has an easy game this week, but the Cowboys will be minus star RB Kendall Hunter… Oregon State gets QB Lyle Moevao back this week, but Sean Canfield will remain the starter for at least one more game… Penn State star LB Navorro Bowman will likely sit out one more game with a groin injury… SMU is likely down a secondary starter this week, with CB Derrius Bell nursing a neck injury… Senior DT Nathan Pepper is doubtful with an injured ankle. The Gamecocks are thin on the defensive front with DT Ladi Ajiboye still suspended… Central Florida is switching QB’s. Brett Hodges is in and Rob Calabrese is out as George O’Leary searches for more effective play from his signal callers… UCLA is off to a good start, but this has been a bad week for the Bruins. Four players, including CB Courtney Viney, have been suspended. UCLA is now thin at CB with Aaron Hester still injured. The Bruins will also be without starting QB Kevin Prince, who suffered a broken jaw last week… UNLV QB Omar Clayton’s knee injury forced him out of last week’s game, but he’s probable for this Saturday. Soph Mike Claussen filled in admirably last week in fueling a fourth quarter Rebel rally… Still no word on whether Utah RB Matt Asiata can play Saturday, as his injured shoulder has him questionable right now… Vanderbilt expects to have RB Jared Hawkins back in action this week. But the Commodores have lost star safety Ryan Hamilton for the season with a torn pectoral muscle, and OT James Williams is also finished for the year with a dislocated ankle… Wake Forest will be without talented DE Kyle Wilber for the next several games thanks to a broken fibula. The Demon Deacons have little depth at this spot, so it’s a key injury… Washington State has had a multitude of problems since before the season started. The Cougars will finally get a couple of live bodies back this week to aid the secondary. But now they’re having to juggle the offensive front with their first two left guards both sidelined.

I’ll update the list sometime on Friday after sifting through any late information.

I’ll also have my free play for the weekend in Friday’s blog.

Posted by Dave Cokin on 16-09-2009 | No Comments

Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Football 9/15/09


It’s not as though I’m looking to cash in on the misfortune of others. But I’ve always wished there were wagering futures on college head coaches. Let’s face it, there are just some scenarios where the proverbial handwriting is on the wall.

Every year around this time, I unveil my list of college football coaches on the hot seat, or at the very least, one that’s uncomfortably warm. Here’s this season’s rundown. These are in no particular order, and there’s a brief commentary included with each coach.

Ron Zook, Illinois: Zook is now 19-31 at Illinois. His record is a bit skewed as he inherited an empty cupboard and had little chance to win in 2005-06. Zook did a whale of a job in 2007 as he took the Illini to the Rose Bowl. But the program went backward last season, and this year’s opening loss to Missouri was embarrassing. He’s an excellent recruiter, but his game skills are not the best. I don’t see Zook being in major trouble just yet, but if this team is sitting at 1-4 in mid-October, a distinct possibility, that comfort zone could shrink. WARM.

Bret Bielema, Wisconsin: He’s got good numbers at Madison, winning 30 of his 41 starts. But Bielema does not seem to have endeared himself to the ardent Badger faithful, and the truth is the program seems to be stagnating. He’s safe for now, but the first rumblings of discontent have started to appear. LUKE WARM.

Dan Hawkins, Colorado: Ugh. Hawkins is now 13-26 at Colorado and he’s in a world of trouble off the miserable start this season. The Buffaloes have played soft and thoroughly uninspired football. This team is staring a 3-9 season right in the eye, and considering the expectations when Hawkins took this gig, the results are tightening that leash considerably. RED HOT.

Bobby Bowden, Florida State: It’s time. Jimbo Fisher is biding his time as Bowden’s top assistant, with an apparent guarantee he’s the successor when the legendary Bowden steps aside. Obviously, Bowden is not going to be fired. But the program has clearly slipped, there have been to many sloppy performances, and those off the field team issues are in the mix as well. My gut feeling is that Bowden will return for a farewell tour in 2010, but if the Seminoles continue to struggle, that timetable could get moved up. WARM.

Al Groh, Virginia: Groh has actually done reasonably well with Cavaliers. This is not a traditional power by any stretch, and Groh guided the Cavs to five bowls in six years between 2002 and 2007. But Virginia was only 5-7 last year, and they’re facing a very difficult slate this season. The Cavaliers aren’t getting great recruits and enthusiasm for the program seems to be lagging. HOT.

Paul Wulff, Washington State: This is only Wulff’s second season on the job, but the early returns are extremely discouraging. Grapevine talk is that Wullf is simply in over his head at this level. The Cougars are astonishingly bad, and would appear to be one of the ten worst teams in all of major college football. That’s one thing if the team in question is in the MAC or Sun Belt. For a PAC-10 team, it’s kind of ridiculous. HOT.

Steve Kragthorpe, Louisville: Kragthorpe did a fine job at Tulsa, but has not had any success at Louisville. Making matters worse is that this program was winning big under Bobby Petrino and the truth is they’ve badly underachieved the last two seasons. Louisville will likely be the underdog in each of their next six games. If the Cardinals don’t score an upset or two, it’s not a sure thing Kragthorpe even finishes the season. He could really use a win at Kentucky this Saturday, but that’s not real likely. I think he’s gone. HOT.

Mike Sanford, UNLV: The Rebels have improved under Sanford, and I like their chances of getting six wins and a bowl this year. But anything short of that means big trouble for Sanford. The program has always been a very tough sell in Las Vegas and there’s definite pressure on this staff to achieve something meaningful this season. The Rebels have only two road wins since Sanford’s arrival, and that will have to change this season or he could be in trouble. WARM.

Mike Price, UTEP: The Miners scored back to back 8-4 ledgers upon Price’s arrival in El Paso. That early success could end up biting him in the rear. Increased excitement and attendance means higher expectations, and UTEP seems to be going in the wrong direction. The extremely ugly start to this season has the locals buzzing. I don’t see Price being pushed out the door just yet, but the winds are starting to swirl. LUKE WARM.

Bob Toledo, Tulane: I don’t have anything against Bob Toledo. He’s probably a helluva nice guy. But he’s not a good head coach. Sorry, but that’s the way it is. The Green Wave have never been a powerhouse, but they were at least respectable a decade ago and there’s no reason they can’t be competitive in CUSA. Toledo may get a reprieve because the program is so low profile, but this can’t last much longer. HOT.

Mark Snyder, Marshall: Wow, the Thundering Herd have absolutely fallen off the football map. Granted, they took a step up in class when they moved from the MAC to CUSA. But the program has fallen to a level no one expected, and they’re off to a poor start with a very experienced team. I believe Snyder must get Marshall to a minor bowl this year or he’ll likely be replaced. That doesn’t look good right now. HOT.

Charlie Weis, Notre Dame: Of course Weis is on this list. Notre Dame is 30-22 under Weis and they continue to be on the wrong side of too many close games. This team needs to win ten games with this year’s personnel and schedule. This weekend’s game with Michigan State could well be pivotal for Weis. An upset loss would be catastrophic. VERY WARM.

Frank Solich, Ohio: Solich took over a struggling program, but they really haven’t accomplished much in his tenure. Solich will not be helped by the fact other similar MAC programs are simply making better progress than the Bobcats. They’ve been prone to too many mistakes the last couple of years and have looked flat in their two games this season. WARM.

This year’s list is actually a little shorter than the norm. That’s because of just how many changes have taken place over the last couple of years, meaning a load of coaches haven’t been on the job that long.

If you’ve got an opinion on any of the aforementioned coaches or one that you feel I may have missed, be sure to leave a comment!

Posted by Dave Cokin on 15-09-2009 | No Comments