by Jim Feist

For years, pro football has been the sports leader when it comes to parity. Pete Rozelle was credited with, “On any given Sunday any team can beat another.” You say, “Wait a minute — the Saints and Colts started 16-0 SU/11-5 ATS. Where’s the parity?” How about four wins by the Colts of 4 points or less? They didn’t lose a game in the first half of the season, but were far from dominant.

What about the Patriots going 16-0 in 2007? What New England did was unique, but let’s not forget that they were fortunate to run the regular season table. They had wins over the Colts, Eagles, Ravens and Giants by 4, 3, 3 and 3 points. Counting the playoffs, the Patriots went 2-9 against the spread their final 11 games. They were double digit favorites for those making pro football picks in their final ten, but went 2-8 ATS.

It’s far more common to see smaller differences between the good teams, the average ones and the bad. For instance, before the season started the top teams in consideration to make the Super Bowl were the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Chargers, Giants, Vikings and Eagles. Several have stumbled in the first half, while the sizzling Saints were not on that list, sitting at 20-to-1 in August.

A year ago, four of the top AFC teams expected to make the Super Bowl were the Pats, Colts, Jaguars and Chargers. Halfway through, all four had serious weaknesses. The Patriots lost their only irreplaceable player (Tom Brady), the Colts battled injuries, while the Jags and Chargers can’t stop anybody. In the NFC, the 2008 Cowboys were the favorite, but stumbled through a terrible stretch going 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS and failed to make the playoffs.

Injuries are the most obvious factor in leveling the playing field, turning powerhouse teams on paper into paper tigers. There are other reasons, too. This season, defending AFC East champion Miami lost starting QB Chad Pennington for the year last month. A year ago the Jaguars lost DT Marcus Stroud in the offseason to free agency and fell to the middle of the pack defensively. The Chargers have struggled for the second straight year defensively with injuries.

There’s an old pro football picks wagering adage about going against teams who roll by 20 points in back-to-back games. That’s not easy to do. If a pro team beats another by 20-plus points in consecutive weeks, it can be a good time to look at the other side, as the club off two blowout wins can be overvalued. In order to win by that kind of margin in consecutive games, a team has to play close to two perfect games back-to-back. In this day of parity, that takes a rare combination of talent, execution, health and luck.

After losing road games by 23 and 37 points, the Raiders stumbled home and not only covered, but beat the Eagles as 14-point dogs, 13-9. Even the bumbling Browns lost back-to-back games by 20+ in Weeks 2 and 3, then got the cover against the Bengals as a +6 home dog. After losing by 35 and 28, the Rams got the cover in a 23-20 loss at Jacksonville as a +9 dog. As miserable as those teams have been, it is still hard to wipe out a pro team by 3 TDs three games in a row.

We saw this trend often in 2007, too. The Cowboys destroyed the Bears (34-10) and Rams (35-7), then Dallas was a 10-point road favorite the next week at Buffalo. They not only failed to cover, they barely won the game, 25-24, needing a miraculous comeback in the final 30 seconds.

Revenue sharing, the draft and the salary cap have all helped to level the playing field more or less and keep competitive balance. Even the worst NFL team would trounce the best college football team if the two were able to face off at the end of each season. This happened in the 1920s when Knute Rockne’s great Notre Dame teams played some charity games with the NFL (the pro teams won handily). This is because every pro roster is stocked with talented college players, while roughly two or three athletes from a college team are good enough to ever play in the pros.

The draft is a major contributor to parity, with the worst teams having the first shot at the best players. Another example in 2007 was the Giants. NY blew out the Falcons (31-10) and 49ers (33-15) in consecutive weeks, then the next week they were a 10-point favorite against Miami overseas. In a sloppy game, the Giants squeezed out a 13-10 win. In addition, with a relatively small talent gap in pro football, teams can often bounce back from one or two terrible performances with a surprisingly strong game. After a 38-14 loss at Atlanta in Week 3, the 2007 Chiefs were a home dog to Denver, but won their first game, 33-19.

It might not seem like it with so many bad offensive teams the last two years, but this is parity at work, with salary caps and free agency making it difficult for teams to simply buy players to shore up weak areas, as is the case in baseball. In football, if you pay a lot to get or retain a key player, you may lose a star in another area. Overall, you rarely see pro teams keep up 20-point or more dominance for more than two games, something to keep in mind when analyzing weekly pro football picks. F

by Jim Feist

There are many factors to examine when making football predictions when studying totals. Defensive and offensive statistics need to be examined, of course. Some of the questions a good handicapper asks: Is there speed in the defensive secondary? Does a club have a one-dimensional offense? Do they prefer a powerful running game or wide-open passing attacks? What kind of weather conditions will there be?

Another area that is correlated to totals is coaching philosophy. Coaches build their teams around a combination of the style they want to play, plus the personnel on the field. The Ravens, for example, have had an abundance of defensive talent the last few years with limited offense talent. That imbalance isn’t necessarily a bad thing, as they hoisted the Lombardi Trophy nine years ago, with a conservative, run-oriented offense and a sensational defense. The last two seasons they have changed that philosophy on offense since OC Cam Cameron came aboard. In fact, they started this season 4-2 over the total.

During their Super Bowl season, Baltimore was 13-7 “under” the total. Two years ago the Patriots had the top offense in the league starting 10-2 over the total. They had an aggressive, attacking offense. However, QB Tom Brady was out last season and they scaled back that offensive approach for inexperienced QB Matt Cassell. It was no surprise New England started 6-3 under the total.

This season the Saints are the unstoppable offensive force, looking for the end zone on almost every play, it seems, behind QB Drew Brees. The Saints went over the total in five of their first seven games, scoring over 40 points four times.

Former coaches such as Jimmy Johnson, Dick Vermeil and Bill Walsh had offensive philosophies that liked to spread the field. They were more like gunslingers in the old west, with wide-open attacks that were ready to score on every play. The Chiefs under Vermeil went 10-6 “over” the total in both 2003 and 2004.

Conversely, some coaches prefer a conservative, ball control game plan, such as the 49ers, Dolphins, Chiefs, Raiders and Rams. The Rams have a new coach in Steve Spagnuola, who admits he wants an offense like the one he left while an assistant with the Giants – run the football to take the heat off the QB. It’s also boring, starting 3-1 under the total. The 49ers have a new offensive coordinator in Jimmy Raye, who admitted back in preseason he wanted to run the football 60% of the time. Like the Rams, the 49ers also started 3-1 under. One of those unders came when the teams met each other in Week 4, a 35-0 San Francisco win, a boon for under players examining football predictions.

Other times, coaches have to adapt based on personnel. Tampa Bay has had their strength on defense rather than offensive skill position talent the last few years. In addition, Coaches Jon Gruden and Raheem Morris have been forced to scale back the offense because of injuries or ineffective play by QBs Chris Simms, Jeff Garcia, Brian Griese, Byron Leftwich and Josh Johnson. The Bucs were 11-5 “under” the total in 2004, 10-6 “under” in 2005 year, and 54-40 “under” the last six years.

When teams with similar philosophies or strengths and weaknesses clash, the results with respect to totals can be predictable. When the Bucs and Giants met in Week 3, the game sailed 22 points under the total in a 24-0 Giants’ win. The Giants got out to a 14-0- halftime lead and were content to play it safe, running the football 49 times. The Raiders either prefer to run the football or can’t pass and they are on a 5-2 run under the total. If you back a low scoring, conservative teams, believing they can control the ball on the ground, you might also want to take a look at the under.

Both the Chargers and Saints started the season 5-2 over the total, with explosive offenses but suspect defenses (they each start 5-3 over last season, too). What happened when they met in London a year ago? A 37-32 Saints’ win sailed way over the total. Coaches construct their game plans around the talent on the field and try to stamp their philosophy on the team, something to keep in mind when trying to make football predictions on totals.

by Jim Feist

So what do you prefer: offense or defense? Most casual bettors examining NFL picks like offense, which is why Monday night football games often take more action on the over. There have been some terrific offensive football teams that last few years, such as USC and Texas in 2005, LSU and Florida the last two years, and pro passing attacks like the Rams, Colts, Dick Vermeil’s Chiefs, the 2007 Patriots and this year’s Saints.

However, name the last few Super Bowl winners? The Steelers, Giants, Colts, Pats and Bucs. Last season the Arizona Cardinals had the flashy offense and were the big surprise, but the top defensive team in the league, Pittsburgh, topped them in the big game. In 2007 defense shut down offense as the Giants topped the high-flying Patriots.

In 2006 Indy was unusual, in that their run defense was poor during the regular season, then caught fire in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Bears were No. 1 in total defense. Back in 2005, the Steelers and Seahawks met in the Super Bowl. They were two of the top run defenses in the league and Pittsburgh was No. 4 in total defense. The Patriots won three Super Bowls with a better defense than offense. Their 2002 team didn’t make the playoffs and the reason was obvious, the second worst run defense, a flaw they fixed and the result was back-to-back Super Bowl titles.

That 2002 season the Super Bowl was a fascinating match-up that pitted the No. 1 offense, Oakland, against the No. 1 defense in Tampa Bay. The Raiders averaged 28.1 points per game, while the Bucs ranked 18th in scoring with 21.6 ppg. This is partly why the Raiders were a 4-point favorite on Super Sunday, but what was the outcome? Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21.

Defense still rules and is an important factor when assessing NFL picks. Defense, in all sports, doesn’t get the publicity that a flashy, exciting offense does, but there is so much truth in that age-old adage “Defense wins championships.” Pittsburgh won four Super Bowl titles in six years from 1975-80 with Hall-of-Famers Terry Bradshaw, Lynn Swann and Franco Harris on offense. But the cornerstone of that run was a defense for the ages led by L.C. Greenwood, Joe Greene, Mel Blount, and Jack Ham.

Note that four of the last seven Super Bowl champions had major deficiencies on offense, yet won with strong all-around defenses. The 2005 Steelers were 23rd in passing. Many laughed at the Baltimore Ravens in 2000 when they went five straight games without an offensive touchdown, but the Ravens laughed all the way to the Super Bowl, going 14-5-1 against the spread dominating with a ferocious defense. Here are the defensive rankings of the last 12 Super Bowl champions and their spread marks:

Super Bowl Champs - ATS Record - Defensive Rank

1996 Packers: 12-6-1 ATS - No. 1 (4th rushing, 1st passing)

1997 Broncos: 13-7 ATS - No. 5 (16th rushing, 5th passing)

1998 Broncos: - 12-7 ATS - No. 11 (3rd rushing, 25th passing)

1999 Rams: 14-4-1 ATS - No. 6 (1st rushing, 23rd passing)

2000 Ravens: 14-5-1 ATS - No. 2 (1st rushing, 9th passing)

2001 Patriots: 13-5-1 ATS - No. 24 (18th rushing, 24th passing)

2002 Bucs: 12-6 ATS - No. 1 (6th rushing, 1st passing)

2003 Patriots: 14-4-1 ATS - No. 7 (3rd rushing, 18th passing)

2004 Patriots: 13-5-1 ATS - No. 9 (6th rushing, 17th passing)

2005 Steelers: 13-7 ATS - No. 4 (3rd rushing, 16th passing)

2006 Colts: 12-8 ATS- No. 15 (32nd rushing, 3rd passing)

2007 Giants: 14-6 ATS - No. 7 (8th rushing, 11th passing)

2008 Steelers: 11-8 ATS - No. 1 (2^nd rushing, 1^st passing)

All the champs were statistically very strong defensively, with the exception of the 2001 Patriots and the 2006 Colts. Both those teams got better defensively in the later stages of the season and were stellar in the playoffs. In 2001, New England struggled early with injuries and new personnel, but in the second half the ‘D’ held their final nine opponents to 17 points or less. Contrast those numbers with the offensive rankings of the last seven Super Bowl champs: The Ravens were 16th offensively, the Patriots 19th, Tampa Bay was 22nd, the 03′ Pats were 17th, the ‘04 Pats 7th, the Steelers 15th, the Colts third and the Giants 16th.

The 1999 Rams had a devastating offense (No. 1), but it was easy to overlook the fact that the Rams had the No. 6 overall defense (No. 1 against the run). The strong offense and defense helped the Rams go 16-3 SU and 14-4-1 ATS on the way to beating Tennessee, 23-16, in Super Bowl XXXIV.

The 2000 Rams’ offense was even better, No. 1 averaging 33.7 points per game. The defense lost head coach Dick Vermeil, defensive coordinator John Bunting, as well as an early-season injury to defensive leader D’Marco Farr. That was plenty, as the unit completely disintegrated, finishing 23rd overall, 27th against the pass while giving up the most points in the NFL (29.4 points per game).

Even though the offense was unstoppable, the defensive collapse caused the Rams to limp into the playoffs as a Wild Card team, where they were quickly eliminated by the Saints, 31-28, as a 6-point favorite. The bad ‘D’ made them a bad bet, as well, going 6-10-1 against the spread. The Pats ended 2007 on a 1-8 ATS run, getting all that publicity on offense, while the Giants were 8-1 ATS, a stark difference for NFL pick trends. Clearly, defense is still the key to football success.

by Jim Feist

October memories glare the brightest in baseball lore. Bobby Thompson’s 1951 home run, Don Larsen’s perfect game in Game 5 of the ’56 Series, Bob Gibson’s 17-strikeouts in Game 1 ‘68, Carlton Fisk’s home run in ‘75, Kirk Gibson’s blast in ‘88, Joe Carter’s Series ending three-run homer in 1993. While home runs mostly dot the top of the memorial landscape, October baseball can also feature memorable defensive plays and great pitching performances from starters and relievers.

That is what led the surge of the Tampa Bay Rays remarkable run to the World Series a year ago, great defense and a deep young pitching staff. The team they lost to, the Phillies, had an ace in Cole Hamels who was the pivotal player last October with a dominating postseason. What were the two significant roster moves the Phillies made since last October? Letting left fielder Pat Burrell leave as a free agent, and trading for ace lefty Cliff Lee in midseason. They were less concerned with upgrading the offense, but far more focused on adding quality pitching. They are better because of it.

This is important from a betting perspective, too, and was a key factor the Colorado Rockies surprised the oddsmakers in 2007. They were 100-to-1 to win the World Series before the season started. The Rockies’ pitching improved from 13^th to in 2006 to 8^th in 2007 in the NL, the same year they were tops in the majors in team defense with the fewest errors allowed.

The Yankees failed to win anything the last eight years despite the highest payroll in the game. They finally wised up last offseason adding C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, fixing huge holes in the pitching staff. The 2007 ALCS between Boston and Cleveland matched the No. 1 and No. 3 pitching staffs in the AL.

Taking a content analysis of the last 13 years of the World Series, you’ll notice that pitching and defense shine a bit more on the October stage than offense. Over that time there have been 42 unders, 31 overs and 2 pushes in World Series play. Is this a fluke? Or are there reasons for more low scoring games?

There are plenty of reasons for it. Since the World Series is the last battle of the season, managers aren’t going to go with their worst pitchers, but the best of their best. This is why you see three and four man rotations in the World Series, whereas in the regular season teams employ a five and sometimes six-man rotation. Simply put, the No. 4, 5 and 6 starters during the regular season aren’t going to see much (if any) important action in late October. The same is true for relief pitchers: A team generally has two or three quality relievers and three or four marginal/below average arms. Naturally, a manager is going to use his best often and go to his weakest arms only if necessary.

The Yankees spent millions on an offensive lineup for the ages the previous two seasons, leading the majors in runs scored. They scored 76 more runs than the next best team. However, offensive teams are built for the regular season. Teams stocked with a balanced line up and excess pitching, both starting and in the bullpen, are built for October.

In addition, defense is a subtle, often overlooked aspect of baseball. There’s an old adage that teams win with pitching, hitting and defense, and that’s true. This is why you often see teams with outstanding center fielders, shortstops and catchers in the World Series because a team needs to be strong up the middle. Good defense helps your pitchers, turning double plays and keeping the other team from scoring.

Finally, the weather is far colder in October than in July and August, and it’s tougher to hit a baseball when it’s cold. When the World Series takes place in northern cities (Boston, New York, Cleveland, Philadelphia) it can be very cold in late October. In 2006 the A’s and Tigers hooked up for Game 3 in Detroit. It was 42 degrees at game time, the lowest for a postseason game since it was 38 in Cleveland at the 1997 World Series. The final score? 3-0 Tigers, far under the total. Remember last year fans were bundled in parkas and blankets in Philly at Citizens Bank Park during the World Series.

Last year, the under went 3-2 as the Phillies topped the Rays in five games. Five years ago, the Cardinals and Red Sox combined for 20 runs in Game 1 of the World Series in a sloppy, mistake-filled, walk-fest, sailing over the total. The next three games, however, went under the total in 6-2, 4-1 and 3-0 Red Sox wins. In the 2003 World Series between the Yankees and Marlins, five of the six games went under the total as pitching and defense excelled, capped by Josh Beckett’s 2-0 clincher at Yankee Stadium in game 6. So don’t be surprised if pitching and defense shines a bit more than offense as temperatures dip along with batting averages.

by Jim Feist

Like a giant leak on a sinking ship, one of the first signs of a poor pro football team is weak run defense. Stopping the run is essential to building a championship team. Who won the Super Bowl in January? The Steelers, a team with the No. 1 overall defense, including No. 2 against the run. In 2007, the eventual champion NY Giants were No. 8 against the run.

The year before that the Colts had the worst run defense in the NFL, yet won the Super Bowl. That is true, but it also was an aberration. Even that doesn’t tell the whole story, as the Colts’ run defense was suddenly dominant in the postseason. The mid-season addition of DT Anthony McFarland, moving LB Rob Morris inside and the return of hard-hitting safety Bob Saunders all coincided with the Indy playoff run, led by their defense. Their Super Bowl opponent, the Bears, were No. 1 in total defense and eighth against the rush.

In 2005, the Carolina Panthers were 4^th in the league at stopping the run behind its fearsome front foursome. They made it to the NFC Championship game. The team just ahead of the Panthers was the Steelers, who won the Super Bowl. In 2003 the Patriots finished No. 3 against the run with the addition of NT Ted Washington. In 2004 they let Washington walk, but added Keith Traylor and rookie Vince Wilfork to the line and finished No. 6 overall against the run. Both those teams won the Super Bowl.

Back in 2001 the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had the No. 1 overall defense, a solid 6^th against the run and celebrated a title. Stopping the run in some capacity is essential for success in football, both on the field and when handicapping picks. Think about how many third and short situations you see over the course of a game. If a team can’t stop the run, opponents can simply run the ball all day long, picking up first downs and controlling the clock. After five games in 2009, here’s a list of pro teams allowing the most yards rushing per game:

Yds rushing allowed - SU – ATS

22^nd: Redskins – 119 – 2-3 – 1-4

23^rd: Rams – 125 —– 0-5 — 1-4

24^th: Falcons – 127 — 3-1— 3-1

25^th: Chiefs – 132 —- 0-5 — 1-4

26^th Texans – 140 —-2-3 — 2-3

27^th: Chargers – 151 – 2-2 – 1-3

28^th: Bucs – 152 —– 0-5 — 1-4

29^th: Bills – 154 —– 1-4 –  2-3

30^th: Panthers – 155 – 1-3 — 0-4

31^st: Raiders – 161 — 1-4 — 2-3

32^nd: Browns – 170 —1-4 – 2-3

Only one of those teams has a winning record straight up or against the number. Four (Redskins, Texans, Bills, Panthers) have been the biggest busts in the NFL. The combined record of that defenseless group against the run was 13-39 straight up and 16-36 against the number.

Atlanta was expected to have some defensive problems, as they struggled at times last year and they are replacing 5 defensive starters. As bad as Carolina has been, at least there is some hope. They were able to plug in 340-pound DT Hollis Thomas, a 14-year veteran, who joined the team two weeks and made a difference, as the Redskins had 74 yards rushing, just 3.1 ypc. Changes on the field that could influence handicapping picks, both sides and totals, must be kept track of each week.

However, there is not a lot of hope for the other teams on that list. The Raiders look like one of the worst teams in history, with holes everywhere, while the Redskins and Chargers have had some off the field bickering going on. San Diego GM A.J. Smith called out his defense during the bye week, saying, “We’d better get out act together.”

This is a good example of why winning cures so many internal problems. The Falcons have a weak run defense, but it’s something the players are positively working on, such as “We’re getting better.” The Chargers, though, have disappointed in a division they were expected to roll through and so there is some venom being spilled.

Go back to 2008, the worst teams against the run were the Lions, Raiders, Chiefs, Rams, Browns, Broncos, Packers, Falcons, Colts, Texans, Bills and Bengals. What stands out? Only two playoff teams, but not a single playoff victory among the group.

By contrast, of the 11 worst teams against the pass last season, the list includes the Falcons, Cardinals, Dolphins and Chargers. All made the playoffs, plus two other teams (Broncos, Jets) that were in the race on the final day of the regular season.

It is more important to stop the run first when handicapping picks. That is why talented run stuffers are in high demand, such as nose tackles Casey Hampton, Wilfork and John Henderson. Run defense is an excellent place to start when examining strengths and weaknesses each week, and for potential future bets as history has not been kind to teams that are not stout against the run in the postseason.

by Jim Feist

A recent Monday night football game saw Brett Favre battle his old team, Green Bay. Favre was the story, with a terrific performance, but young QB Aaron Rodgers put up some sizzling numbers, with 384 yards and 2 TDs. Impressive. Did they win? Or cover? No, as Minnesota won 30-23. The most obvious explanation and it’s obvious: 2 turnovers. Turnovers are one of the most basic fundamentals of winning football, both straight up and against the number when analyzing football picks.

Defensive coaches have been preaching more aggressive, attacking stop units over the last 15 years. South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier has spent three decades coaching college and pro football, at Duke, Florida, South Carolina and the Washington Redskins. When asked about what the biggest change he had noticed in the college game, Spurrier spoke not about the wide-open passing attack that he helped popularize, but about defenses. He said that when he first took over at Duke in the 1980s, defenses were basic and reacted to what the offense would try and do.

However, since that time, defenses have become far more aggressive, trying to attack the offense rather than sit back and react. The Chicago Bears famed 46 defense caused havoc around the league during a 1985 Super Bowl season. The Bears that year were 18-1 straight up and 15-3-1 against the spread, led by a devastating, attacking defense. They pitched four shutouts and held 14 of 19 opponents to 10 points or less.

Defensive coaches in both the pro and college ranks have been teaching players to not only tackle properly, but to aggressively strip the ball from opposing players. Tony Dungy, Bill Belichick, Rex Ryan and Lovie Smith have used their teaching talents to upgrade defenses. A key component of aggressive defenses is to force more turnovers. They are a huge part of any contest. Take a look at the bottom teams in turnover margin in the NFL last season:

2008 Worst TO Margin ATS record

Broncos (-17) 4-11-1 ATS

49ers (-17) 7-8-1 ATS

Cowboys (-11) 7-9 ATS

Texans (-10) 9-7 ATS

Lions (-9) 7-9 ATS

Bills (-8) 7-9 ATS

Some of the teams on that list probably surprise you. Denver? A team that had a high flying offense and should have won the AFC West? Well they didn’t, going 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS in the final four games, blowing the division title. Dallas? The Cowboys had a chance to make the playoffs on the final day, but failed to show up in an embarrassing 44-6 loss at Philadelphia. Now you know an even deeper reason those teams were in such a precarious late season situation — turnovers.

So none of the teams on the high turnover list made the postseason. Those teams were also a combined 41-53-2 against the spread, a factor to keep in mind when assessing weekly football picks. A quarterback who throws too many picks can kill the momentum of his offense, and his confidence can get worn down. It can even spill over onto the sidelines.

A few year’s ago in a playoff game, QB Marc Bulger threw 3 interceptions against the Panthers and while the Rams had a chance to win the game late in the fourth quarter, coach Mike Martz decided to play it safe and settled for a game-tying field goal. He was widely criticized for this after the Rams lost in overtime and it’s clear in the back of his mind he was thinking, “I don’t want Bulger to throw another interception. I’d better play it safe.”

Last season, the top five teams with the best turnover differential — Miami, Tennessee, Baltimore, the Giants and Indianapolis — all made the playoffs with at least 11 wins and combined for a 59-21 record. The Dolphins and Giants each had 13 turnovers last year, tied for the fewest ever in a 16-game season.

2008 Top TO Margin ATS record

Dolphins (+17) 8-9 ATS

Titans (+14) 12-5 ATS

Ravens (+13) 14-5 ATS

Giants (+9) 12-5 ATS

Colt (+9) 7-9-1 ATS

It’s not hard to notice how essential turnovers are. All the top teams in turnover margin made the playoffs in 2008, and two were the top seeds in their conference. They were a combined 53-33-1 ATS. The Titans had a 13-3 regular season, but notice this year they are minus in turnovers, a huge factor in their disappointing start.

Going back a step further, the cumulative spread record of the 2005 NFL top turnover teams: 70-47-5 against the number, and that doesn’t even include the champion Steelers, who had a 13-7 spread record. The Steelers were not far off the list, either, ranking 10^th in TO margin at +7. Teams good at forcing turnovers not only win on the field but there is an ATS correlation.

Be careful backing teams that are sloppy at taking care of the football when analyzing football picks. Chances are they don’t win or cover the number as regularly as those that play smart, mistake-free ball.

by Jim Feist

So…are we all set for the Jets/Broncos AFC Championship game, with the winner facing the survivor of the Vikings/Saints NFC Title game? Because after three weeks, those were four of the remaining seven undefeated teams in the NFL, along with the Giants, Ravens and Colts. To put that in perspective from a handicapping sports picks perspective, before the season started the Jets were 40-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, the Ravens 22-to-1 and the Broncos, fresh off an 8-8 season, were 60-to-1. Yet, there they were at the end of September among the NFL elite in the standings.

I bring this up to emphasis the importance of patience. A hot start is nice but guarantees nothing. Scheduling, injuries, personnel changes are all significant factors in the success of a football team, and a hot start doesn’t mean that a team is great, just as a cold start doesn’t mean a club is out of it.

Four years ago the Steelers were 7-5 and on the outside of the playoff bubble down the stretch. The rest is history, with the Black and Gold winning 8 in a row and the Super Bowl. That same year, the Atlanta Falcons were 7-4, before losing four of their final five, crashing their playoff hopes. At the end of Week 4 in 2005, there were only four undefeated teams: The Bengals, Redskins, Buccaneers and Colts. The positive news is all four ended up in the playoffs. The bad news is none got to the Super Bowl or even the conference championship games.

A year ago the Tennessee Titans started 10-0 and ended up as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Of course, that didn’t help in January, failing to win one playoff game. As late last Xmas the Cardinals were an 8-7 team and had just gotten thrashed at New England, 47-7. No one was talking about Arizona as Super Bowl material, but a month later, there they were.

Naturally, a team doesn’t want to start 0-3 like this year’s Rams, Bucs, Panthers, Dolphins, Titans and Chief, but a poor start isn’t a death knell. You may recall that four years ago the Panthers started 1-2, but ended up in the NFC Title game. A poor start makes it tough as there are only 16 games and few teams even qualify for the postseason. On the other hand, a hot start isn’t mandatory. In 2003, the Eagles looked terrible during an 0-2 SU/ATS start just before their bye week. That team then went 11-3 against the spread the rest of the regular season, winning 13 of their next 15 games on the way to the NFC Championship game. The Patriots started 2-2 in 2003, then proceeded to go 15-0 SU, 12-3 ATS on the way to winning the Super Bowl.

If you think a good start is important, let’s not forget the 2003 Minnesota Vikings. The boys in purple started 6-0 SU/ATS, only to fold, missing the playoffs during a 3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS finish. Miami also started 4-1 SU/ATS that season, only to go 3-8 against the spread and miss the playoffs again. That is why following handicapping sports pick trends can be so up and down.

It’s a marathon and all kinds of things can crop up to derail a potential playoff run: Poor defense, injuries, bad luck, even scheduling. In 2003, the Dolphins had to play five of seven games against eventual playoff teams. They lost four of them. The Chiefs were the hottest team in the NFL the first half of the 2003 season, starting 9-0 SU and 8-1 against the number. There even was a future’s bet offered on whether the Chiefs would run the regular season table undefeated. That wager didn’t last long as Kansas City finished 4-4 straight up and 2-6 against the spread after that 9-0 start. The same thing happened with the 2005 13-0 Colts. When the AFC Championship game was being played, the Colts were home watching it on TV.

Back in 2004 there were just four 3-0 teams to start the season, with the Seahawks and Jaguars in that mix. Neither made the playoffs. If your favorite team is off to a disappointing start, relax, and if your team is off to a hot start, don’t start making preparations for the Super Bowl, or even the playoffs. That should give some comfort to Saints fans after a miserable 0-3 SU/ATS start.

The defending champion NY Giants started a sizzling 11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS last season, but finished 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS, failing to win a playoff game. That was somewhat reminiscent of the 2003 Giants, who started 2-1 SU/ATS, then limped to a 2-11 SU finish while going 1-11-1 against the number. In 2004, Seattle started 3-0 SU/ATS with a defense that allowed 13 total points! No one remembers that start, however, as the Seahawks went 6-8 SU, 2-12 ATS the rest of the season.

In 2001, the Patriots weathered a 1-3 SU/ATS start filled with a serious injury to QB Drew Bledsoe and the suspension of WR Terry Glenn. New players stepped in and the team began to grasp the defensive schemes, ending the season 9-0 SU/7-1-1 ATS, while upsetting the Rams in the Super Bowl as a +14 dog. When handicapping sports picks, it is not the fastest horse out of the gate, but the one who crosses the finish line.

by Jim Feist

There’s a reason they play the games. Teams don’t always play the way stats and power rankings suggest they are supposed to. That’s often evident early in the pro and college football seasons because some teams are very different from year to year. Look at a team like Michigan. The Wolverines stumbled badly last year with a very young team and a new coach bringing in a whole new offensive philosophy.

The Wolverines have been much better this season, even beating Notre Dame as an underdog. After struggling to score points in 2008, Michigan’s offense has been very productive, going over the total in back-to-back games against the Irish and Eastern Michigan.

September is a fascinating time for football handicappers to follow college football partly because of surprises. We’ve already seen a bunch of surprises. Oklahoma was anticipated by many to return to the national title game, but couldn’t even get a win in Week 1, losing as a 23-point favorite to BYU, 14-13. Wasn’t it just a few years ago the Sooners were upset by TCU as a 24-point favorite? Yes, and that took place in September, too.

This year’s upset was because of an injury to QB Sam Bradford combined with a dominating BYU defense. Four years ago it was because of a lack of quarterback experience as TCU stacked the line and held the Sooner running game to 2.7 yards per carry. That’s the thing with early season football: Injuries can mar the best laid championship plans, while team weaknesses can get exposed and taken advantage of by opposing coaches.

It’s important not to read too much into major surprises, either, when analyzing college football picks. Sometimes a team pulls a huge upset not so much because it is so much more improved, but because the opponent is overvalued. This was the case with TCU back in 2005, which dominated Oklahoma, then went out the next week and lost to SMU, 21-10 as a 13½ point favorite. Were the SMU Mustangs that much improved? No, as the next week SMU lost 66-8 at Texas A&M.

Early season football also features significant shifts and changes, not only because of injuries but because of ineffective play. East Carolina, for instance, was expected to have a good offense for Skip Holtz, with so many returning starters, plus senior QB Patrick Pinkney (back for his sixth season, if you can believe that). Yet, the offense hasn’t been there yet. Watch teams like this closely, whether you are a fan or serious handicapper. They can begin to improve as things click, or the coaching staff can make adjustments for better or worse.

Coaches select new starters based on scrimmages before the season, but there is a huge difference between practice and real-game situations. Subtle things reveal themselves in games, such as leadership, decision-making, performance and even pressure. Some players, quarterbacks in particular, have weaknesses in those areas that don’t fully reveal themselves until game-day competition. As a result, that can throw off preseason prognostications of fans, media and the team’s coaching staff.

A great example last season was Tennessee. Expectations were high for the Volunteers with a lot of returning talent. But QB Jonathan Crompton and a new offensive coordinator never were able to get things rolling and it was a disastrous season. There have been many new changes for this season, but the Vols are still struggling offensively.

Of course, the biggest upset was USC losing at Washington in a 16-13 stunner that sent shockwaves through the Top 10. Washington just ended a 15-game losing streak this month that included a 56-0 loss to the Trojans last season. The difference? This is not the same Washington team from last year. Senior QB Jake Locker missed most of last season, plus the Huskies have a new playbook and attitude under Coach Steve Sarkasian.

Maybe the Trojans aren’t as good as last year or aren’t as good as August expectations, but it’s clear the team they were playing wasn’t as bad as anticipated, either. Maybe this will cheer up Oklahoma and USC fans: In 2003, LSU debuted at No. 12 in the first BCS standings and rallied to win the national title. Understand that preseason expectations are not set in stone, and don’t overvalue teams simply based on one impressive game. Football handicappers know that big dogs often bark in September, but that doesn’t mean they will continue to bark the rest of the season.

by Jim Feist

College and pro football offer a variety of great match-ups every weekend. A good handicapper, though, doesn’t just look at individual and team match-ups. There are other factors surrounding a game that can be equally important to identifying a winning spread cover, such as scheduling and road travel.

For instance, last September in college football saw Cal of the Pac 10 traveling 3,000 miles across the country to face Maryland. As a double digit dog, Maryland jumped out to a 21-6 halftime lead and held Cal without a TD until late in the game of a 35-27 upset. It really wasn’t that close. For three quarters, California appeared to be sleepwalking, which can happens when you have a noon kickoff, which translates to a 9 a.m. start time on the West Coast.

The Maryland offense erupted for five touchdowns after having only four in the first two games combined. Maryland was coming off a 10-point loss to unheralded Middle Tennessee State! After rushing for 391 yards in a 66-3 thrashing of Washington State, Cal was held to just 38 yards on 23 carries. Think scheduling had anything to do with that upset? “We weren’t ready to start the game,” said Cal quarterback Kevin Riley. Another player admitted, “We were playing a little sluggish.”

As a footnote, the next week Cal flattened Colorado State, 42-7. Those examples encompass so much of things beyond match-ups in college football: scheduling, emotion, revenge, even respect. After the game one Maryland player was angry about how people were downplaying ACC football. Did you notice Maryland and Cal played a few weeks ago in the rematch? This time it was at Cal, so the Terrapins were the team traveling 3,000 miles, and looked sluggish in a 52-13 Cal rout. “We wanted them to know what Cal football was all about. We wanted to jump on them early,” RB Jahvid Best said.

Cal was involved in a pair of similar games in 2006 and 07. Tennessee was a home dog to No. 9 Cal and the Vols jumped to a 35-0 lead on the way to a 35-18 victory. The Volunteers were off a losing season, one where they missed a bowl game for the first time since 1988. Players and coaches were all talking about bringing Tennessee football back to where it belonged.

Tennessee dominated Cal, with an edge in total yards 514-336 and an edge in rushing 216-64. Individual match-ups were skewed, in a sense, because of the emotional energy and focus that a team like Tennessee put into that game, plus the long road trip for Cal. The two teams met again last season at Cal and the Golden Bears won and covered, 45-31. The schedule hurt both road teams. Motivation was a factor, too, with Tennessee rebounding from a poor 2005 season and Cal out for revenge in 2007. This doesn’t happen all the time, of course, but even the best pro and college football teams don’t always have 100 percent focus.

Staying with Tennessee for a moment, what happened AFTER those games? Back in 2006, the Vols were a 20-point home favorite over Air Force, yet struggled in a 31-30 victory. Several things happened. One is that Tennessee was on a high from that emotional opening day win. Two, the team had put so much focus on beating Cal that it left little time to prepare for Air Force’s unique option offense, which is tough to defend even for talented defenses. Three, Tennessee had a more important game on deck the next week against rival Florida, their SEC opener, making the Air Force game a sandwich spot.

After getting whipped by Cal in 2007, the Volunteers were not in a good mood when playing the next week, and they covered by double digits in a 39-19 win over Southern Miss. All of these aspects of handicapping can give bettors a key edge: Being able to identify teams that are completely focused, bad scheduling spots, and bounce back opportunities.

Two years ago the San Diego Chargers opened at home against the Bears, the defending NFC Champs, while introducing a new coach in Norv Turner. It was an emotional, physical game, and the Chargers needed a second half rally to pull out a 14-3 victory. The next week the team flew 3,000 miles to New England to play another talented, physical defense. As a +4 dog, the Chargers were whipped 38-14. They also ran into an angry Patriot team that had been ripped all week in the national media regarding an embarrassing videotape scandal.

A few years ago the Miami Hurricanes had ACC games against Georgia Tech and NC State sandwiched around a Thursday night battle against Louisville. Look what the Miami players were saying the day before that game: “Louisville is a good team,” said then Miami CB Andre Rolle. “But we go in there expecting to shut people out. We’re trying to shoot for a national title.” When told that the Cardinals felt they were ripe for the upset, Rolle said, “They can think what they want. Personally, I don’t think that’s going to be possible.”

You’re not supposed to give fodder for the enemy like that. I wonder what he thought a few days later when Louisville led 24-7 at the half as a 9-point underdog. Before the game Cardinal WR J.R. Russell said, “We look at the game as life or death. It’s very important.” Miami appeared not to have given as much attention to this non-conference sandwich game as the visitor. Studying individual game match-ups are essential, but remember that other factors equally important can surround a game, including look-ahead spots, sandwich games, and factors that can influence a team’s focus.

by Jim Feist

You have to remember that in September it’s more likely that defenses are ahead of the offenses in pro and college football. This might not seem the case when you watch Miami and Florida State put on an exciting 38-34 shootout with both teams tallying over 400 yards. However, that’s not the norm, either, something that needs to be assessed carefully when trying to find football picks each week. Think of the NFL opener as the Steelers and Titans battled to a 13-10 low scoring affair in overtime.

The first weekend of the college football season saw a huge edge to games going under the total. One of the most striking was one of the first games, when a potentially high-powered Oregon offense under first-year coach Chip Kelly laid an egg at Boise, getting 8 points and 152 total yards. Kelly has been running wide-open offenses there, which was a reason he got the job when Mike Belloti moved up to the AD’s office.

That certainly wasn’t what he had in mind for an opener. Oregon managed just 14 yards in the first half and was forced to wait until the third quarter to record its initial first down.

Think back one year ago to the first week of the NFL season. The high powered offenses of the Saints, Colts and Patriots combined for 24, 13 and 17 points in Week 1. Granted, the Patriots lost QB Tom Brady that game, but Drew Brees and the Saints wouldn’t have that low a scoring game again until Week 7, while the Colts were totally out of sync offensively.

Go back to the opening of the 2007 NFL season and the unders ruled by a whopping 11-5 edge. In 2006 the unders were 11-5 in the first NFL week. Quarterbacks need to develop timing with receivers, and offensive linemen have to learn to mesh on blocking schemes and pocket protection. All of that takes time, patience and practice. As we know, preseason doesn’t offer much time to practice as coaches are more concerned with keeping starters healthy than getting the offense finely tuned.

All of which makes another interesting year for sports bettors searching for football picks who play totals. Will the defenses be ahead of the offenses in September and early October? That is often the case, as it takes far more time and practice to get execution down between offensive players.

Notice that in 2006 after going 11-5 under in Week 1, the overs had a slight edge of 25-19-1 in Weeks 3-4. Part of it is that oddsmakers adjust their lines based on what happened the previous week, but also offenses begin to mesh together better after Week 1. Another factor to keep in mind is that the NFL changed the rules a few years to aid the offense, outlawing the “horse collar tackle.” Essentially was when a defensive player tackled the ball carrier by grabbing his shoulders, which is no longer legal.

The league also has enforced the five-yard rule, which was designed to help wide receivers get downfield faster, as opposed to being mugged at the line of scrimmage by linebackers and defensive backs. A defensive player can still bump the wide outs when the ball is snapped, but has to be careful not to after the offensive player advances five-yards past the line of scrimmage, otherwise a penalty will be called. It is not easy being a defensive player in the pros anymore!

Passing yardage and scoring did increase during the 2004 season when those rules were enforced. In fact, during that season the unders were 43-27 the first five weeks of the season, but the overs were 92-71 from weeks 7-17.

It was also interesting that three offensive coordinators got axed this August before a single regular season game had been played. Who says there’s not pressure to produce offensively, even in preseason?

It’s going to be interesting to watch the Buffalo Bills in September, an offense that has added the no-huddle and is committed to it, though WR Terrell Owens missed almost all of preseason. The Bills have had to endure with the firing of offensive coordinator Turk Schonert, plus when asked if he liked the no-huddle, Owens said, “No, not really, but I have to deal with it.” And who says he’s not a team player?

So keep a close tab on yardage and totals in September and early October when sifting for your own football picks. Scoring and unders can rule early in the season, but that can change when the offenses begin to get more in sync.