Las Vegas Insider set for Wednesday’s MLB / CFB ‘08 opens Thursday!Larry earned a profit with his premium MLB selections in the just completed week of Aug 18-24. It was the 11th time in the past 16 weeks he had done so.

However, he’s opened the new week, going 0-3 since Monday. He can’t “get it all back” in one day, especially on a day like Wednesday, where 10 of the 15 games opened with one team favored by $1.70 or higher, including five instances of $2.00 (or higher) favorites.

He does have one strong play though, his latest Las Vegas Insider, as he looks to improve on his 42-25 run since May 26.

Larry ‘loves’ Thursday’s football card (CFB and NFLX) and will begin posting games throughout the day on Wednesday, so check back.

As always, you may want to consider his subscription offers, which allow you to access his daily selections in all sports for $175 (seven days) or for $400 (31 days).
Utah State at UNLV (CFB Saturday at 10:00 ET)

These teams opened against each other last year as well, with the Rebels coming away with a 23-16 win. UNLV scored with 1:02 remaining in that game, which ended the school’s 15-game road losing streak (FYI, the Rebels went on to lose their other five road games last year). UNLV’s only other win in ‘07 came at home against Utah (27-0 shocker), as the team ended the year on an eight-game losing streak (2-10 overall). That leaves head coach Mike Sanford just 6-29 in his three years at the school and squarely on “the hot seat.” Sanford insists there has been improvement with the program since his arrival but it’s a “hard sell” when the team has managed just two wins in each of his three years in Las Vegas. Even more troubling has been the fact that his teams have unraveled in similar fashion. Losing the final eight games last new was nothing new, as the ‘06 team went 1-10 after winning its season-opener and the ‘05 team lost eight of its last nine, including its final five. Now Utah State is not exactly a powerhouse, as the Aggies are just 3-21 the last two years. However, they do open the ‘08 season on a two-game winning streak, after winning their final two games of the ‘07 season, 35-17 and 24-19. The back-to-back wins ended a 16-game losing streak and surprisingly, both wins came on the road (at New Mexico St and at Idaho). I should mention at this time that the Aggies have won their last FIVE visits to Las Vegas and that the Rebels are a pathetic 6-17 ATS as home favorites, a record that stretches back into the 1990s. I’ll also mention that UNLV is 0-4 ATS in its last four tries as a double-digit favorite, twice losing outright. Utah State was reasonably competitive in all but two games in ‘07 (lost at Oklahoma 54-3 and at home to Boise State 52-0) and was particularly good away from home, covering EVERY road game but the team’s trip to Norman (6-1 ATS). Let’s take the points.

15* NL Game of the Week and Weekly Wipeout Winner on tap for Tuesday!Larry enters Tuesday’s action on an 80-54 run with premium MLB plays since June 30 here at DBS. It’s that kind of consistent winning that regulars have come to rely on from this 25-year vet.

Larry’s 64-46 in ‘08 and a simply superb 185-96 over the L2 regular seasons with his GOW plays in MLB. His ‘ASSAULT’ on MLB’s moneyline continues tonight with his NL Game of the Week. Also on Tuesday, it’s one of Larry’s classic Weekly Wipeout Winners. His Wipeout Winners in MLB are 13-6 since June 17 and Larry’s hosting another W-I-P-E-O-U-T ‘party’ tonight. RSVP now.

As always, you may want to consider his subscription offers, which allow you to access his daily selections in all sports for $175 (seven days) or for $400 (31 days).

My free play is on the NY Mets at 7:05 ET. The Mets and Phillies play a brief two-game set this week in Philadelphia, with the Mets owning a half-game lead in the NL East. The Mets took FIVE of six games with the Phillies in July, including a three-game sweep in Philadelphia. Can the Mets put last year’s collapse (owned a seven-game lead with just 17 games remaining) behind them? A two-game sweep here would surely be a good start. Pedro Martinez gets the call for the New Yorkers and while he’s only won two games in his last seven starts (team is 4-3), he’s pitched very well. Martinez owns a 2.88 ERA over that stretch, which began with a win at Philadelphia where he went 5.1 innings while allowing five hits and two ERs on July 7. The ageless Jamie Moyer (11-7, 3.54 ERA) gets the nod for Philly and the lefty is hoping he can finally get some support from his teammates. Moyer’s posted a splendid 2.66 ERA over his last 14 starts but is a modest 5-4 during that span (team is 7-7), as the Phillies have scored four runs or less in all but ONE of those 14 starts. He’ll likely need some support to win here, as he’s facing a New York team which has gone 26-14 vs lefties this year (averaging 4.9 YPG). However, that support may not be coming, as the Phillies are just 14-14 at home vs righties in ‘08, averaging a modest 3.9 RPG. Take the Mets.

I’ve always loved the Heisman, as in spite of all its warts and blemishes, it remains the most recognized and arguably the most-cherished individual award in any sport. I began doing a weekly Heisman top-10 on my nationally-syndicated radio show (”Bally’s Sports Central”) in the early to mid-90s and have continued it on the internet since. I didn’t do one last year but I’ve had a number of requests to revive it this year, so I will. After a brief intro, my Heisman preview appears below. My weekly top-10 will be available right here every Monday, beginning on September 1.
The number seven is ‘wild’ when it comes to Heisman winners with Notre Dame, Ohio State and USC all tied with seven career Heismans. However, Notre Dame hasn’t had a Heisman winner since Tim Brown in 1987 and he was the school’s first winner since John Huarte won in 1964. USC became known as “Tailback U” as Mike Garrett (1965), OJ Simpson (1968), Charles White (1979) and Marcus Allen (1981) captured four awards in a 17-year stretch. Then QB Carson Palmer won in ‘02, QB Matt Leinart in ‘04 and RB Reggie Bush in ‘05. However, neither school figures to have a ‘dog’ in this year’s Heisman ‘hunt.’
Six players have won Ohio State’s seven Heismans, as the Buckeyes own college football’s only two-time winner, Archie Griffin (1974-75). OSU’s first winner was Leslie Horvath in 1944 and its most recent winner was Troy Smith in 2006. RB Chris “Beanie” Wells is in my preseason top-five this year and QB Todd Boeckman is one of a trio of QBs I have ranked in the No. 8 spot (see below). Ohio State has lost back-to-back BCS titles games but is among a handful of favorites to return for a third consecutive try in ‘08. For that to happen, the Buckeyes will likely need to beat USC on September 13 in the Coliseum, where the Trojans have won 38 of their last 39 games.
It may come as a surprise to some that neither Alabama with 787 all-time wins (7th all-time) nor Tennessee with 771 wins (9th) have ever had a Heisman winner. Alabama has never had a player finish higher than fourth in the voting (most recently, Johnny Musso in 1971) while Tennessee has had four players finish second in the balloting. Hank Lauricella in 1951, Johnny Majors in 1956, Heath Shuler in 1993 and Peyton Manning in 1997.
In comparison, SEC rival Florida has had three winners, Steve Spurrier in 1966, Danny Wuerffel in 1996 and last year’s winner, Tim Tebow. Tebow became the first sophomore to win the award in 2007, while becoming the first player to ever have 20 or more TD passes (32) and rushing TDs (23) in the same year. Can Tebow pull an “Archie Griffin” and win it again this year?
It should be noted that two of previous four winners (prior to Tebow), each returned the following year only to fall short. Oklahoma’s Jason White won the Heisman in his junior year of 2003 but finished third in the 2004 voting behind teammate Adrian Peterson (a freshman!) and USC’s Matt Leinart, who won. Leinart returned for his senior year as well in ‘05 but like White, finished third in the voting that year, behind Vince Young (Texas) and teammate Reggie Bush, who became USC’s seventh Heisman winner. However, Tebow’s the “defending champ,” so he’ll begin the year atop my poll.
HEISMAN TROPHY PRESEASON TOP-10 POLL
1) Tim Tebow (Florida): Tebow helped the Gators win the national title in his freshman year (2006), offering a “change of pace” to Florida’s starting QB that year, Chris Leak. Tebow attempted just 33 passes in ‘06, throwing five TDs with only one INT. However, in a sign of things to come, ran 89 times for 469 yards (5.3 YPC) while scoring eight TDs. He led a young Florida team a 9-4 mark in 2007, becoming the first player in NCAA history to pass (32) and run (23) for 20 TDs or more in the same season. He completed 66.9 percent of his 350 attempts, while throwing just six INTs (finished second in passing efficiency with a QB rating of 172.47). His 210 rushing attempts were more than double the number of any other player on the team, as he ran for 895 yards (4.3 YPC). He set an NCAA record for rushing TDs by a QB (23), an SEC record for TDs accounted for (55) and a school-record for total offense (4,181 yards). He accomplished all this despite suffering a bruised shoulder in the middle of the season and playing with a fractured right hand in Florida’s regular season finale vs Florida St. The Gators return all but two offensive starters this year, from a team which finished third in the nation in both scoring (42.5 PPG) and total offense (457.2 YPG) in ‘07. However, Tebow is not expected to run as much this year, so his numbers could be down. The Gators have a typically tough SEC schedule, visiting Tennessee and Arkansas, while playing in Jacksonville against preseason No. 1, Georgia. They also must visit Tallahassee on November 29 plus host LSU (defending national champs) and Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks on November 15, who almost beat the Gators in “the Swamp” in ‘06 (Florida won 17-16). I don’t expect Tebow to repeat but he deserves to begin the year in the No. 1 spot.
2) Pat White (West Virginia): White returns for his senior year with quite a resume as West Virginia’s starting QB. Unlike Tebow, don’t expect his rushing attempts to be down this year. In fact, with RB Steve Slaton leaving school early, his opportunities may even increase. The Mountaineers went 11-2 last year, with White being hurt in both losses. He was injured in the late second quarter (and never returned) of a 21-13 loss at USF on September 28. Then, in the team’s regular season finale at home vs Pitt (when a win meant a spot in the BCS title game), White dislocated his thumb in the second quarter and while he returned in the fourth quarter, he was not able to do much. However, he returned a month later to lead the Mountaineers to a 48-28 win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, completing 10-of-19 passes for 176 yards and two TDs (no INTs), as well as rushing 20 times for 150 yards. It marked his sixth 100-yard rushing game of the year, giving him 15 in his career. He’ll enter this year having won Big East POY the last two seasons, with 4,207 career passing yards (64.2 percent), 35 TDs and 16 INTs. He’s added 3,506 rushing yards (7.1 YPC) and scored 39 rushing TDs. He’s a perfect 3-0 in bowl games in his career, leading West Va past Georgia 38-35 in the Sugar Bowl in his freshman season and beating Ga Tech (also 38-35) in the Gator Bowl as a sophomore. His three-year bowl record is very impressive, as he’s completed 30-of-48 passes (62.5 percent) for 427 yards (5 TDPs / 0 INTs), while rushing 66 times for 372 yards (65.6 YPC) and one TD. West Virginia has a realistic shot at going unbeaten in ‘08, which sure wouldn’t hurt White’s chances of winning the Heisman.
3) Chase Daniel (Missouri): Daniel completed 63.5 percent of his passes in 2006, throwing for 3,527 yards with 28 TDs and only 10 INTs. His 28 TD passes shattered Missouri’s single-season mark, as it had been held by Terry McMillan, who had 18 back in 1969. Even more noteworthy that year was that Daniel led the Tigers to an 8-5 record, just the second time Missouri had won eight games in the previous 25 seasons. However, Daniel was just “warming up.” Daniel was terrific last year, topping 300 yards passing eight times in 14 games (owns 12, 300-yard games in his career), with a career-high 421 in a 55-10 with at Colorado on November 3 in which he also matched a career single-game high of five TD passes. He finished the season by completing 68.2 percent of his passes for 4,306 yards while throwing 33 TDs and only 11 INTs. However, Daniel and the Tigers lost twice to Oklahoma in ‘07, 41-31 in Norman on October 13 and 38-17 in the Big 12 championship game on December 1. In those two losses, Daniel threw just one TD pass and was intercepted three times. However, the team’s 12-2 finish after a 38-7 win over Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl, allowed the Tigers to finish No. 4 in the final AP poll, the school’s highest-ever final ranking. Missouri is ranked No. 6 in the AP’s preseason poll (also the highest ranking ever for the school) and the good news is, the Sooners are not on the Tigers’ regular season schedule this year. Expect Daniel to have another great year and if the Tigers can meet and beat the Sooners in this year’s Big 12 championship game, Daniel is likely to wind up in New York as one of the Heisman finalists.
4) Chris Wells (Ohio State): Wells is the first RB on my list and I’m rating him one spot ahead of Georgia’s Knowshon Moreno only because I believe the Buckeyes have a much easier overall schedule than the Bulldogs. Wells ran for 576 yards as a freshman (2006) and followed with an impressive 1,609 yards last year as a sophomore (averaged 5.9 YPC and scored 15 rushing TDs). After not topping 100 yards in any game in ‘06, Wells topped the 100-yard mark nine times in 2007, including 221 yards at home vs Michigan State, gaining a school-record (which is obviously a career-high for Wells) 222 yards in the regular season finale at Michigan plus gaining 146 yards on 20 carries in the BCS title-game loss to LSU, where he set a BCS record for the longest TD run (65 yards) in that game’s 10-year history. Wells accomplished all this, while suffering with bone spurs the entire year. If the Buckeyes can win at USC on September 13 (no small feat), Ohio State just could reach the BCS championship game for the third consecutive year. If that’s the case and Wells improves on last year’s stats (which is hardly far-fetched), he’s a legitimate Heisman threat.
5) Knowshon Moreno (Georgia): After losing 35-14 in Knoxville to the Vols on October 6 of last year, the Bulldogs record was a disappointing 4-2. True freshman RB Knowshon Moreno was held to just 30 yards in 13 carries (2.3 per) in that game and had hardly resembled Jamaica’s Usain Bolt, “coming out of the blocks!” However, the Bulldogs would not lose again, finishing the year with seven straight wins. Moreno turned into a star in the first five games of that season-ending run by Georgia, gaining 766 yards or 153.2 YPG. He finished his freshman season with 1,334 yards rushing (5.4 YPC) and 14 TDs. Georgia finished the ‘07 season at 11-2, with a final ranking of No. 3 in the coaches’ poll and No. 2 in the AP poll. To begin ‘08, the Bulldogs have opened as the No. 1 team in the nation in both the coaches’ and AP preseason polls, marking first-time the school has topped either of those polls in the preseason. Georgia is seeking its first national title since Herschel Walker’s freshman year (1980) and Moreno is seeking the school’s third Heisman (Frank Sinkwich won in 1942 and Herschel in 1982). The problem that both Georgia and Moreno will face in 2008, is that the Bulldogs must survive a brutal schedule. The SEC placed five other schools along with Georgia in the AP’s preseason top-25 and all five are on Georgia’s schedule this year, plus the Bulldogs must visit No.15 Arizona State on September 20. In all, the Bulldogs will face eight teams which feature head coaches who have won national titles on some level (for a complete list, see my article entitled, “CFB ‘08: Lucky No. 11″).
6) Graham Harrell (Texas Tech): After two RBs, I’m back to the QB position for the next three spots in my poll. After all, QBs have dominated the Heisman contests lately, winning seven of the eight awards this decade (Reggie Bush in ‘05 is the lone interloper). Harrell began the ‘06 season (his sophomore year) at Texas Tech as the school’s starting QB. It marked the first time since 2001 that the Red Raiders did not open the year with a senior at that position. All Harrell did in ‘06 was complete 412-of-617 passes (66.8 percent) for 4,555 yards with 38 TDs and 11 INTs. All he did last year as a junior, was to improve on those numbers! Harrell completed 512-of-713 passes in ‘07 (71.8 percent) for 5,705 yards with 48 TDs and 14 INTs. His 646 yards passing at Oklahoma State was the fourth-highest single-game mark in NCAA history and by year’s end he had become just the fifth QB in NCAA history with two 4,000-yard seasons on his resume. If he continues to improve, what can we expect this year? The Red Raiders are really a well-kept secret, as Texas Tech enters the ‘08 season with a run of 13 consecutive winning seasons (starting in 1994). The Big 12 was formed the following year and Tech is the only Big 12 team to post a winning season in each of that conference’s 12 years. Now here’s the rub. I earlier mentioned that Harrell had 646 yards passing at Oklahoma State on September 22 (also had five TDs and no INTs) but I didn’t mention that the Red Raiders lost that game, 49-45. Tech stood at 6-1 through seven games last year but then Harrell had back-to-back four-interception games at Missouri (a 41-10 loss) and at home to Colorado (a 31-26 loss as a 13 1/2-point favorite). Harrell will put up huge numbers again this year (he owns 22 games of 300 passing yards or more, including 14 games of 400-plus) but any chance (outside at best) of him winning the Heisman will likely need Texas Tech to be 10-0 when the Red Raiders visit Norman on November 22.
7) Sam Bradford (Oklahoma): Bob Stoops won a national title in just his second year as Oklahoma’s head coach. In ‘08, Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford will try to give his head coach a second title, in Bradford’s second year in Norman. Bradford was spectacular as red-shirt freshman last year, throwing for 3,121 yards (69.5 percent) with 36 TDs and eight INTs. His 36 TD passes were a new NCAA freshman single-season record and his QB rating of 176.52 led the nation last year. Bradford was brutal (8-of-19 with 112 yards / 1 TD and 2 INTs) in a 27-24 loss at Colorado (OU was favored by 23 points) on September 29 and at Texas Tech on November 17, he suffered a concussion very early (had attempted just three passes), as the Sooners lost their second regular season game of the year, 34-27. Bradford did come up big in Oklahoma’s two wins over Missouri, completing 42-of-60 passes for 475 yards with four TDs and one INT, but he couldn’t turn around Oklahoma’s recent failures in BCS bowl games, as the Sooners were blown out 48-28 by West Va in the Fiesta Bowl, the school’s fourth consecutive BCS bowl loss. Oklahoma is again a legitimate national title-game contender and Bradford, a legitimate Heisman contender.
Todd Boeckman (Ohio State) / Cullen Harper (Clemson) / Matthew Stafford (Georgia): I’d be shocked if any of these three QBs were to win but all three are the starting QBs on teams destined for excellent seasons. Boeckman entered last year with just 10 passing attempts in his first two years at Ohio State (backing up Troy Smith, who won the Heisman in ‘06) but led the Buckeyes back to the title game in ‘07. His stats weren’t overwhelming in ‘07 (2,379 yards / 63.9 percent / 25 TDs and 14 INTs) but if the Buckeyes were to go unbeaten and return to the BCS championship game for the third straight year, who knows? Georgia’s Stafford had the most modest stats of this “group of three” last year (55.7 percent / 2,523 yards / 19 TDs and 10 INTs) but many experts feel this guy could be the top QB taken when he enters the draft. Georgia won its lone national tile with Buck Belue as its QB in 1980, so anything is possible! Cullen Harper entered last year with just 22 pass attempts on his college resume but completed 65.1 percent of his passes in ‘07, throwing for 2,991 yards with 27 TDs and just six INTs (led ACC in passing efficiency). He’s got a great RB tandem behind him in Davis and Spiller and just maybe, this is Clemson’s year?
9) Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech) / Percy Harvin (Florida) / Jeremy Maclin (Missouri): Only three WRs have won the Heisman in its history. Johnny Rodgers (Nebraska) won in ‘72, Tim Brown (Notre Dame) won in ‘87 and Desmond Howard (Michigan) won in ‘91. The one thing all of these three winners had in common was their ability to return kicks. If that’s the ‘deciding vote,’ then let’s first discuss Jeremy Maclin. Maclin was superb last year for the Tigers, catching 80 passes for 1,055 yards (13.2 per) with nine TDs. All this, despite the fact that Missouri owned a “two-headed monster” at the TE position with Rucker (84 catches) and Coffman (52 catches) plus Maclin also ran for 375 yards (7.4 YPVC) and for four TDs plus returned two punts for TDs as well. However, my favorite of the three is Florida’s Percy Harvin. What a unique team the Gators had last year, with QB Tim Tebow leading the team in rushing and WR Harvin finishing second, with 764 yards (9.2 YPC) and six TDs. He also had 59 catches for 858 yards (14.5 per) with four TDs, which led the team despite the fact that Harvin missed two games. Last, but certainly not least, it’s Michael Crabtree of Texas Tech. Crabtree finished with 134 receptions for 1,962 yards and 22 TDs. All were single-season freshman NCAA records. He became the first freshman to win the Biletnikoff Award and who knows what he may accomplish in ‘08?
10) Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan). Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech) / Percy Harvin (Florida) / Jeremy Maclin (Missouri): Only three WRs have won the Heisman in its history. Johnny Rodgers (Nebraska) won in ‘72, Tim Brown (Notre Dame) won in Now everyone outside of Mt. Pleasant, Michigan knows a player from the MAC can’t win the Heisman. However, Chippewas fans will point out the similarities of Dan LeFevour’s 2007 stats to that of Heisman winner Tim Tebow’s. Tebow had a TD-to-INT ratio of 32-6 and LeFevour had one of 27-13. Tebow threw for 3,286 yards while completing 66.9 percent and LeFevour threw for 3,652 yards while completing 65.4 percent. Tebow ran for 895 yards (4.3 YPC) with 23 TDs and Lefevour ran for 1,122 yards (6.0 YPC) with 19 TDs. Now all the Chippewas need to do is go 13-0 in the regular season (which would include a win in the MAC title game) and for LeFevour to greatly improve on his 2007 stats for him to even be considered as a Heisman finalist!
Good luck, Larry

LEGEND Play in MLB wins on Sunday / Las Vegas Insider is lone MLB on Monday!

Larry bounced back with a 2-1-1 mark with all premium plays on Saturday (NFLX and MLB), after a poor Thursday and Friday. He then won his LEGEND Play (10* rating!) on Sunday (only release of the day), as the White Sox won 6-5 in 10 innings.

The win gave Larry an 8-5 mark with premium MLB plays for the week (Aug 18-24). That means he’s earned a profit in 11 of his last 16 MLB weeks. He opens the new week with an 80-53 run with premium MLB plays since June 30.

Larry’s lone play on Monday is his latest Las Vegas Insider. He and his “unmatched” contacts have won 16 of their L23 MLB Insiders, upping Larry’s run with his exclusive MLB Las Vegas Insiders to a “money-making” 42-24 since May 26. The ‘proof’ is in the numbers! “It pays to be on the inside with Larry.” Want in?

You asked for it and here it is. Larry Ness is beginning his 25th year as a professional handicapper with the opening of the 2008 football season and is now offering his award-winning selections here at DonBest.com on a subscription basis for the first time. Most regulars remember Larry’s terrific 2007 season in which his MLB selections went 260-149 from Opening Day through the end of the regular season, with his 15* Game of the Week plays leading the charge at 121-50. After a slow start to MLB ‘08, Larry’s put together a solid winning run. He’s earned a profit in 11 of the last 16 weeks and since June 30, his premium MLB releases are 80-53. Larry’s gone 64-46 with his 15* GOW plays since Opening Day and is on a number of excellent runs with some of his signature releases. As of August 24, Larry’s 42-24 with his exclusive Las Vegas Insiders (since May 26), 13-6 with Wipeout Winners (since June 17) and 7-4 with his 20* Game of the Month Plays (since June 1). With the opening of the ‘08 NFLX, Larry’s 30-day offer now includes NFLX games (NFL regular season opens on September 4) and of course, will include CFB games beginning on August 28. Don’t miss this opportunity to get ALL of Larry’s selections (in ALL sports) for the next seven days days for $175 or for the next 31 days ($400). Sign up now and win with one of the handicapping industry’s true legends.

There’s not much Larry can say after a terrible L2 days other than it’s “time to get back to work.” That’s what regulars expect from this 25-year vet and that’s just what he’s doing on Saturday. Along with his top total for Week 3 (Weekend Wipeout Winner), Larry is also featuring his Rivalry Game of the Month (NYG/NYJ). Get it now and win with Larry.Every ‘capper strives for consistent winning and Larry’s accomplished just that in MLB over the L2 years, especially with his GOW plays. He’s 63-46 in ‘08 and a simply superb 184-96 over the L2 regular seasons despite last night’s loss. Larry’s in “bounce-back mode” and so is the team he’s playing as his Situational GOW.

Larry also features his latest Las Vegas Insider, looking to improve on his run run which has seen him win 16 of his L22 MLB Insiders and post a 42-23 mark since May 26.

As always, you may want to consider his subscription offers, which allow you to access his daily selections in all sports for $175 (seven days) or for $400 (31 days).
My free play is on Oak.Sea Over at 10:10 ET. The A’s (7-26) own MLB’s worst record since the All-Star break, while the Mariners aren’t far behind, going 10-23 during that same span. The A’s beat the Mariners Thursday night 2-0 but the Mariners ended a seven-game losing streak with a 7-5 win last night in Seattle. The A’s are hitting a ML-low .241 and are averaging 3.91 RPG. The Mariners hit better (.265 as a team) but aren’t scoring all that much more (4.15 RPG). However, just like last night, I expect this game to go ‘over’ the total. Jarrod Washburn gets the start for Seattle and he’s having another disappointing year. He enters with a 5-13 mark on the season (4.95 ERA), having lost four straight starts while posting a 7.36 ERA. He’s allowed 28 hits and nine walks in just 22 innings over those starts and in 10 home starts this year, has a 5.50 ERA with the Mariners going 2-8. There is no reason to think the A’s can’t “get to him.” Oakland will send Dana Eveland to the mound, who is returning to the majors after being demoted on August 3. Eveland, acquired in the Dan Haren trade with Arizona, got off to a very good start for Oakland in ‘08, allowing three ERs or less in 16 of his first 18 starts. However, in the four starts prior to him getting sent down to the minors, he had allowed 28 hits, 13 walks and 20 ERs over 17 innings for a 10.59 ERA. He had made it past the fifth inning in just ONE of those starts, getting one out in the 6th in that one. Yes he went 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three starts with Tacoma but I’m betting the Mariners will reach him for “more than a few” runs tonight. Take Oak/Sea Over.

The number 11, like the number seven, is associated with good luck. With that in mind, let’s hope for the best this college football season, as the BCS enters its 11th year. That’s right, it’s been that long since the entire “BCS mess” started with a confusing press conference at a Chicago hotel in July of 1998. Things haven’t cleared up much since, although as I’ve reminded readers often, picking college football’s national champion, has never been “smooth sailing.”USA Today’s preseason top-25 poll (coaches’ poll) was released on August 1, with the Georgia Bulldogs claiming the top spot. This past Saturday (August 9), the AP released its preseason top-25 and the Bulldogs were also the top choice of the writers. It marked the first time in school history that Georgia was the AP’s preseason No. 1. Georgia’s only national championship came back in 1980, which is best-remembered as Herschel Walkers’ freshman year.

History is not on Georgia’s side in ‘08, as only 10 AP preseason No. 1 teams have gone on to claim the national title, since the AP first instituted its preseason poll back in 1950. Tennessee was the first to do it (1951) and Michigan State did the very next year in 1952. Oklahoma turned the trick in 1956, 1974, and 1975. Alabama did it in 1978 and Oklahoma did for a fourth time in 1985. Since then, only Florida State in 1993 and 1999 plus USC (in 2004), have won national titles after opening the year as the AP’s No. 1 team.

A quick history reminder of what I mean when I say picking college football’s national champion, has never been “smooth sailing.” When Tennessee won its AP title in 1951, the Vols lost in the Sugar Bowl that year to No. 3 Maryland (28-13) to finish 10-1, while the Terps wound up 10-0. However, national champions were voted on prior to the bowls back then. In 1952, Michigan State finished its regular season 9-0 but wouldn’t join the Big 10 until 1953 and didn’t compete in any of the seven bowls that year (there are 34 bowls on this year’s schedule). You still think the BCS is CFB’s biggest problem?

Anyway, back to the Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia finished 11-2 lat season, after its 41-10 thumping of Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl. The Bulldogs finished No. 2 in the final AP poll last year and No. 3 in the coaches’ poll. The team returns 16 starters in ‘08 and head coach Mark Richt owns a 72-19 (.791) seven-year mark at the school, which includes an amazing 25-4 mark (.862) in opponents’ stadiums. However, the Bulldogs will face an extremely tough schedule in ‘08.

The SEC placed five other schools along with Georgia in the AP’s preseason top-25 and all five are on Georgia’s schedule this year, plus the Bulldogs must visit No.15 Arizona State on September 20. In all, the Bulldogs will face eight teams which feature head coaches who have won national titles on some level. Don’t believe it? Below is a list in order of appearance on Georgia’s 2008 schedule.

Georgia Southern’s Hatcher won a Division II title at Valdosta State, South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier won a national title at Florida in ‘96, ASU’s Dennis Erickson won two titles at Miami-Florida in ‘89 and ‘91, Alabama’s Nick Saban won at LSU in ‘03, Tennessee’s Phillip Fulmer won the first-ever BCS title in 1998 with the Vols, LSU’s Les Miles won last year, Florida’s Urban Meyer won with the Gators in ‘06 and Georgia Tech’s Paul Johnson won multiple titles at Division I-AA Georgia Southern.

If Georgia can survive the regular season and win the SEC-East (something it wasn’t able to do last year), it would then have to win the SEC championship game and the BCS title game, played this year in Dolphin Stadium on January 8. Will Georgia be one of the two teams playing for this year’s national title in Miami? It would be a school-first and that’s nothing to be ashamed of. This may come as a surprise to many but in the BCS’ 10-year history, just 11 schools have played in a BCS title game (20 spots).

Florida State played in the game’s first three years (won only in 1999) but hasn’t been back since losing to Oklahoma in 2000. The Sooners have also played in three BCS title games but after beating FSU 13-2 in ‘00, lost to LSU in ‘03 and USC in ‘04. Ohio State upset (or should I say ‘robbed’) Miami 31-24 to win the ‘02 title in the game’s lone overtime contest (double-OT, to be exact) but as everyone knows, has been manhandled the last two years, losing 41-14 to Florida in ‘06 and 38-24 to LSU last year.

LSU is the only two-time winner in BCS title-history (’03 and ‘07), while Miami and USC join the Tigers as schools with two appearances. Miami crushed Nebraska 37-14 in ‘01 and then ‘lost’ to Ohio State in ‘02. The Trojans buried the Sooners 55-19 in ‘04 but lost that classic 41-38 game to the Longhorns in ‘05. Texas joins Florida (’06) and Tennessee in ‘98 (beat FSU 23-16), as schools which have won in their only BCS title-game appearances. Nebraska (’01) and Va Tech (lost to FSU 46-29 in ‘99) are both 0-1 in title-game appearances and complete the list of 11 BCS participants.

All told, there have been 42 BCS bowl games in 10 years. Only 13 of the 42 games (31.0 percent) have been decided by a TD or less (including four title games), while 24 of the games (that’s 57.1 percent) have been decided by 10 or more points, including the other six championship games. The best BCS game-ever has to be Boise State’s 43-42 overtime win in the ‘07 Fiesta Bowl (’06 season) but the best title game was undoubtedly Texas beating USC 41-38 in ‘06 (’05 season).

If the Bulldogs or for that matter, any of the NCCA’s other 118 bowl division schools don’t make the BCS title game, they’ll be plenty of other opportunities. As I already mentioned, there are 34 bowls on this year’s schedule, two more than last year. New this year are the Congressional Bowl (Washington, DC) and the St Petersburg Bowl (guess which city this one is in). That means that 68 of the 119 schools (57.1 percent) will go ‘bowling’ in 2008 (or early 2009).

Here’s few schools you may want to root for in 2008? The longest active bowl drought is owned by New Mexico State, which last played in the postseason in 1960 (Sun Bowl). The Aggies are followed by Kent Stae (last appearance was in the 1972 Tangerine Bowl), Temple (’79 Garden State Bowl), Vanderbilt (’82 Hall of Fame Bowl) and SMU (’84 Aloha Bowl). Vanderbilt (SEC) is joined by Baylor of the Big 12 (’94 Alamo Bowl) and Duke of the ACC (’94 Hall of Fame Bowl), as the only three schools playing in BCS conferences which have not played in a bowl of any kind since the BCS “came to town” in 1998.

Northwestern, which hasn’t won a bowl game since it beat Cal 20-14 in the 1949 Rose Bowl (1948 season), has gone the longest time (in years) of any school since last winning a bowl game. The Wildcats are followed by Rice, which beat Alabama 28-6 in the ‘54 Cotton Bowl (1953 season) for its last win, Vanderbilt which beat Auburn 25-13 in the ‘55 Gator Bowl for that school’s only bowl win, New Mexico State which beat Utah State 20-17 in the aforementioned ‘60 Sun Bowl and Duke which beat Arkansas 7-6 in the 1961 Cotton Bowl (’60 season).

I’ll close with this missive for my oldest friend, Gary. The “not-so Fighting Irish” own the longest active bowl losing streak, having lost nine consecutive bowl games since beating Texas A&M in the ‘94 Cotton Bowl, 24-21 (’93 season). Hey, it’s not as if the Irish haven’t been competitive, as they’ve only been outscored by the combined scores of 316-157 in losing those nine straight bowls, the last five by the combined scores of 182-70! Maybe Notre Dame can qualify for the Congressional Bowl this year and get a rematch with Navy?

Good luck…Larry

I was asked to do a preview of MLB’s Home Run Derby (something I typically don’t do) but jumped at the opportunity. Being somewhat “old school,” when I think Home Run Derby, I remember the 1959 TV show held at Wrigley Field in Los Angeles. It featured some of the best sluggers in MLB, squaring off against each other in nine-inning HR contests (a HR was a run and anything else an out, including a swing and a miss). I used watch the show in reruns during the ’60s with my boyhood friend Peter and then we’d go out in my backyard with a whiffle ball and bat and recreate the setting.

The show was hosted by then-Hollywood Stars broadcaster Mark Scott and was contested at Wrigley Field in Los Angeles (yes, there was one there too!) Seven players who would eventually join MLB’s 500-HR club appeared. That select group included Hank Aaron, Ernie Banks, Harmon Killebrew, Mickey Mantle, Eddie Mathews, Willie Mays and Frank Robinson. In all, nine future Hall of Famers participated. The seven already listed, as well as Al Kaline and Duke Snider.

While one player was taking his turn at bat, the other player would be engage Scott in “small talk.” Scott was as hokey as they come and MLB players of that day were hardly media-savvy. The weekly winner received $2,000 and was invited back for the next week’s episode against a new opponent (the runner-up received $1,000). Bonuses of $500 were paid for three HRs in a row, a fourth HR was worth another $500 and any consecutive HR hit after that would each be worth $1,000 per.

I guess you have to be from that era to really appreciate it. Hank Aaron held the record for most money won on Home Run Derby ($13,500) and won six consecutive wins contests. Jackie Jensen was the only player to hit four and five HRs in a row and the entire series lasted just 26 contests. Host Mark Scott died in 1960 from a heart attack and the producers decided not to replace him and the show was canceled.

However, as with every walk of life, “imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.” This TV series helped inspire the current Home Run Derby, which is contested the day before MLB’s annual All-Star game. The contest began in 1985 (Pittsburgh’s Dave Parker won) and has been held each year since, except for 1988 when it was canceled due to rain. Ken Griffey, Jr. is the event’s only multiple winner, winning in 1994 and its lone repeat champ, winning in ‘98 and ‘99.

Vladimir Guerrero won last year but is not in this year’s competition so Griffey’s record is safe. Bobby Abreu, then with the Phillies, had a 24-HR first round in 2005, on his way to hitting 41 HRs, the most by any player. This year’s competition is being held at Yankee Stadium, in the final season of “The House That Ruth Built” (new Yankee Stadium opens next year, right next door). Fittingly, the date is July 14 (7/14). One could write the date this way, 7-1-4 (Babe’s career HR total). I saw this on a blog somewhere, but don’t remember where (congrats to the author).

Now to this year’s competition. As of Sunday morning, there was still one spot open, as the selection process for this year’s Derby has taken longer than the Democratic primary. Jusin Morneau of the Twins filled the last spot Sunday afternoon so he will join, Josh Hamilton (Texas), Evan Longoria (Tampa Bay) and Grady Sizemore (Cleveland) from the American League. In the NL, it’s Lance Berkman (Houston), Ryan Braun (Milwaukee), Dan Uggla (Florida) and Chase Utley (Philadelphia).

These are not exactly marquee names, as many players feel as if this competition hurts them. Conventional wisdom says that the constant swinging for home runs causes bad mechanics that are difficult to shake. The “poster boy” for this thinking is Bobby Abreu, who set a record with 41 HRs in the 2005 event in Detroit. He came into the Derby hitting .307 with 18 home runs but hit just .260 with six HRs the rest of the season. Is there any real truth to this? As you can see, I’m not so sure the facts back up the “theory.”

Here is a list of the Home Run Derby Winners since 2000 and how they fared before and after the Derby:

Year Champion, team 1st half 2nd half Total
2000 Sammy Sosa, Cubs 23 27 50
2001 Luis Gonzalez, Diamondbacks 35 22 57
2002 Jason Giambi, Yankees 22 19 41
2003 Garret Anderson, Angels 22 7 29
2004 Miguel Tejada, Orioles 15 19 34
2005 Bobby Abreu, Phillies 18 6 24
2006 Ryan Howard, Phillies 28 30 58
2007 Vladimir Guerrero, Angels 14 13 27

As you can see, I’m not so sure the facts back up the “theory.” So how does one handicap this thing? Here’s my thoughts. First of all, a quick check of the past winners tell us that just two middle-infielders have won, Ryne Sandberg in 1990 (just a one round event in which he won with three HRs) and Miguel Tejada in 2004, who hit 27 HRs in a competition which featured the current format of three rounds. With that in mind, I’m dropping the two secondbasemen in the contest, Uggla and Utley.

Without a full field yet, no lines have been posted. However, I do know that in the past, most sportsbooks will make either the defending champ the favorite or the HR leader from the first half of the current season. That doesn’t help us this year, as Guerrero (’07 champ) is not in this year’s field and Ryan Howard (28 HRs), the majors’ leading HR hitter as of Sunday morning, did not make this year’s game. Utley (25 HRs) has the most HRs of any player in the competition (entering Sunday’s play).

I’ve already eliminated him but I’ll add that no player who led the first half in HRs has won the Derby or even made the final, over the last five contests. What I’m looking for is a guy who really “wants to win.” My first choice is Houston’s Lance Berkman. While so many guys want no part of this contest, Berkman is back for the fourth time in since 2002, as he’s seemingly on the “every other year” plan. He hit just two HRs in ‘02, had 21 in ‘04 (losing to Tejada in the finals, 5-4) and had only three HRs in ‘06. I’m betting this is his year.
My second-choice is Josh Hamilton of the Rangers. His off-the-field troubles in the past have been well-documented but he’s had a terrific first-half. In fact, I’d be surprised if he isn’t the betting (and fan) favorite. Heading into’s Sunday’s play, Hamilton is hitting .314 with 21 HRs and 95 RBI (all-time record for RBI at the All-Star break is 103, held by Hank Greenberg in 1935). How can’t Hamilton be the fan favorite, after the following story hit the AP wires a few day ago?

Clay Council (71-years-old), who helped Josh Hamilton develop his batting stroke as a 13-year-old, was invited by Hamilton to pitch to him in this year’s HR Derby. When Hamilton’s brother Cary played American Legion ball for Council in the 1990s, Hamilton would join in batting practice. Council still throws batting practice for Cary’s American Legion team and says he will be making just his second trip to Yankee Stadium. According to Council, he claims his first visit was when Don Larsen pitched a perfect game against the Brooklyn Dodgers in Game 5 of the 1956 World Series.

Who am I to argue with that kind of karma? I’m calling for a Hamilton/Berkman final but I’m sticking with Berkman to win. Enjoy the three-day break.
Good luck, Larry

On May 30th, the Celtics were in Detroit to play the Pistons in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. It had taken Boston seven games to beat the 37-win Hawks in the first round and the Celtics needed seven more games to get by the Cavs in the semifinals, while going 1-6 ATS. Now in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Celtics led the Pistons 3-2 in games but entering Game 6, Boston was just 1-7 SU and ATS in road games in the playoffs to-date and just 3-9 ATS over its previous 12 postseason games overall.

After scoring the first basket of the fourth quarter, the Pistons led the Celtics 70-60 and the series seems as if it was headed back to Boston for a Game 7, which would have Boston’s third in as many series. However, as I like to point out, things can change very quickly in the world of sports. The Celtics outscored the Pistons 29-11 the rest of the way, winning the game 89-81 and the series 4-2. The Celtics then beat the Lakers in the NBA Finals in six games, covering every game.

What a turnaround. A game away from a third straight seven-game series and on a 3-9 ATS run, the Celtics won the 17th title in franchise history by ending the postseason on a 7-0 ATS run. Boston’s 39-point margin of victory on Tuesday was the largest for any team in a clinching game in the NBA Finals, just falling short of Chicago’s 42-point win over the Jazz in Game 3 of the 1998 Finals (96-54), which is the largest margin of victory of any NBA Finals game. As I’ve already stated, things can change very quickly in the world sports.

(Continued..)