This week’s title was fairly easy. I wrote in last week’s CBB Notes that after Texas lost on January 18 (Longhorns would also lose 88-74 at U Conn on Jan 23), that Kentucky was the nation’s lone unbeaten and that the Wildcats were poised to grab the nation’s No. 1 ranking by winning at home over Arkansas on Saturday, January 23. The Wildcats did just that, crushing the Razorbacks 101-70. The 31-point margin of defeat was the worst in SEC history for Arkansas. The win moved the Wildcats to 19-0 (the school’s best start in 44 years) and as expected, Kentucky earned the AP’s No. 1 ranking on Monday (Jan 25), getting all 65 first-place votes (also No. 1 in the coaches poll with all 31 votes).

It marked the school’s first No. 1 ranking in the AP since the final regular season poll of 2002-03 and marked the 89th time the Wildcats had held the No. 1 ranking. For head coach John Calipari, he joined Frank McGuire as the only two coaches to have taken three different schools to the AP’s No. 1 ranking. Calipari led U Mass to the No. 1 ranking in both the 1994-95 and 1995-96 seasons plus Memphis to the top spot back in the 2007-08 season. As for McGuire, he led St John’s, North Carolina and then South Carolina to the top of the polls during his legendary 30-year career.

McGuire led both St John’s (1952) and North Carolina (1957) to a Final 4 but Calipari can do him one better in 2010, by leading the Wildcats to this year’s Final Four at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis (April 3-5). Calipari led the Minutemen (1996) and Tigers (2008) to Final Fours and could join Rick Pitino as the only coach to take three different schools to a Final Four. For the record, Pitino led Providence to the 1987 Final Four, Kentucky to Final Fours in 1993, 1996 (NCAA champ) and 1997 (runner up) plus Louisville to the 2005 Final Four.

However, I’m getting ahead of myself as Kentucky lost its very first game as the nation’s No. 1 team on Tuesday night at South Carolina. South Carolina’s Devan Downey scored 30 points as the Gamecocks beat a No. 1-ranked team for the first time in school history. Star freshman Wall had 19 points but made just 6-of-16 FGs for the Wildcats, while fellow freshman Cousins matched a career high with 27 points plus added 12 rebounds. However, the rest of the team connected on just 7-of-24 shots (29.2 percent). Kentucky’s loss (Wildcats will host Vandy on Jan 30) means there are no remaining unbeaten teams in Division I and that Bob Knight’s 1976 Indiana Hoosiers (32-0) continue as the last school to go an entire season without a loss.

Texas won 17 in a row to open this season (its best start since 1932-33) but an 0-2 week dropped the Longhorns to No. 6 in Monday’s AP poll. Texas rebounded Wednesday night with a 95-83 home win over Texas Tech in its first game since losing the No. 1 ranking. Texas has won 16 straight home games and is 26-4 overall in the series since the former SWC rivals joined the Big 12 in 1996-97, including 14 straight wins in Austin over the Red Raiders. Texas is now 99-11 against in-state opponents during Rick Barnes’ 11 seasons at the school. Texas hosts No. 24 Baylor on Saturday.

Kansas was CBB’s preseason No. 1 and held the No. 1 spot for eight straight weeks, before losing 76-68 at Tennessee on January 10. The Jayhawks moved up to No. 2 this past Monday (behind Kentucky) and that night routed Missouri 84-65. It marked the team’s 54th straight home win, the longest active streak in the nation. The Jayhawks are poised to re-claim the No. 1 spot next Monday but they’ll have to win this coming Saturday at Manhattan, Kansas when they face the 11th-ranked Wildcats. Kansas St is 17-3 overall, including 11-1 SU (6-1 ATS) at home but the Jayhawks are 25-1 at Kansas State since 1984, after overcoming a 16-point first-half deficit to win 85-74 last year in Manhattan.

Villanova’s 18-1 start matched the school’s 1950-51 squad and the Wildcats’ No. 3 ranking is the second-best in school history behind the 2006 team which made it to No. 2 in March of 2006. The Wildcats then beat Notre Dame 90-72 on Wednesday, moving to 19-1 for the first time in school history. They are the only Big East team unbeaten in conference play (8-0) and won’t play again until February 2, a day after the next poll. The Wildcats are 19-1 for the first time and are the only Big East team unbeaten in conference play (8-0). No. 2 Kansas will likely ascend to No. 1 if it wins at No. 11 Kansas State on Saturday but if the Jayhawks lose, expect Villanova to claim the school’s first-ever No. 1 ranking.

‘Nova’s 8-0 league mark tops the Big East with Syracuse (20-1 overall, 7-1 in conference) right behind them. Syracuse moved up to No. 4 in last Monday’s poll and hosted then-No. 7 Georgetown that night. The Orange fell behind 14-0 at the start of the game but dominated the rest of the way, outscoring the Hoyas 73-42 for a 17-point win. It was Jim Boeheim’s 819th career win (ranks 6th all-time) and marks the 13th consecutive season in which Syracuse has reached 20 wins. Boeheim has led his Syracuse teams to 20 wins or more in 32 of 34 seasons. It’s quite remarkable that for years, Boeheim was not considered a great coach. Syracuse visits 8-12 DePaul on Saturday.

Michigan St also moved up one spot in the rankings on Monday, rounding out the nation’s top-five teams. Michigan State ‘escaped’ at Ann Arbor on Tuesday, when Kalin Lucas hit a jumper with 3.5 seconds left to give the Spartans a 57-56 win over Michigan. The Spartans are 18-3 overall and 8-0 in conference play, which is the best conference start in school history. Michigan State hosts Northwestern this coming Saturday.

With Kentucky’s loss, BYU owned the nation’s longest active winning streak at 15 in a row but the Cougars couldn’t escape “The Pit” unscathed on Wednesday night. No. 23 New Mexico beat No. 12 BYU 76-72 in a game which marked only the second time the Lobos and Cougars were both ranked when facing each other (back on February 17, 1973, No. 18 New Mexico beat No. 20 BYU 76-66 in Provo). The 19-3 Lobos are now 4-0 vs ranked opponents this season. BYU’s 20-1 start had matched the best in school history (1977-78) and its No. 12 ranking in Monday’s AP poll was the school’s highest ranking since the Cougars were No. 11 in February of 1988.

I noted in last week’s notes that the Pac 10 did not place a team in the top-25 and the same held true again this past Monday, for the third straight week. Among the category of “others receiving votes,” one could find California with two votes or 45th, overall. Pac 10 teams are an abysmal 1-15 vs top-25 opponents in 2009-10 and the conference faces the very real possibility it won’t receive an at-large bid to the “Big Dance.” The last time the Pac 10 placed just one team in the NCAA field was 1978, when the tourney featured just 32 teams.

The Pac 10’s woes could spell good news for a number of mid-major conferences in 2010. Mid-major schools received 12 at-large bids in 2006 (the year George Mason reached the Final 4) but in 2007 received just eight. That number dropped to six in 2008 and last year, only four non-Big Six schools received at-large bids. Next week I’ll take an early look at the potential 2010 NCAA field.

Good luck, Larry

The NFL hadn’t seen both of its No. 1 seeds make it to “Championship Sunday” since 2004 and with wins by both the Colts and Saints, it marks just the third time both No. 1 seeds have advanced to a Super Bowl since the league expanded its playoff field to 12 teams twenty years ago (1990). It hadn’t happened since the 1993 season when the Cowboys beat the Bills 30-13 in Super Bowl XXVIII (both teams were 12-4), with the only other occurrence coming in 1991 when the 14-2 Redskins beat the 13-3 Bills 37-24 in Super Bowl XXVI.

The Colts went 14-2 and the Saints 13-3 in 2009, matching the records of the Redskins and Bills in Super Bowl XXVI, as well as the Patriots (14-2) and the Eagles (13-3) in Super Bowl XXXIX for the second-fewest combined losses of Super Bowl opponents since 1990. Super Bowl XXXIII featured the 14-2 Broncos and the 14-2 Falcons for the fewest losses since 1990, a game in which the Broncos won 34-19. The 15-1 49ers beat the 14-2 Dolphins 38-16 in Super Bowl XIX and the three combined losses of those two teams ranks as the fewest of any Super Bowl opponents since the NFL expanded its schedule to 16 games back in 1978.

It’s been a high-scoring postseason in 2009 with the first five games going over the total, including the highest scoring game in NFL postseason history (Arizona’s 51-45 OT win over Green Bay in the wildcard round). Those first five games averaged 57.6 points but three consecutive unders followed, with those games averaging 30.3 PPG. However, “Championship Sunday” saw both games over over, as the Colts won 30-17 (closing total was 40) and the Saints won 31-28 in OT (53 1/2). That leaves us with seven overs and three unders so far, as games have averaged an unusually high 48.5 PPG.

Home teams won both games on Sunday, the third time in the last four seasons in which home teams have swept the two conference championship games. It’s the 16th time in which both home teams have won and advanced to the Super Bowl since the 1970 merger, compared to both visiting teams winning and advancing just twice (there have 22 instances in which one home team and one road team won). Home teams finished 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in the 2009 postseason with the home team being favored in every game except the Green Bay/Arizona contest (favorites went 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS). The favorite had won and covered or the dog had won outright in every game, before the Saints (minus-3 1/2) won but failed to cover against the Vikings. Just three of the games were decided by less than 10 points, while five games were decided by 17 points or more (two by margins of 31 points).

The Colts head to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in their history (each time the game has been played in Miami) and the second time in four seasons. Amazingly, the Colts have won both AFC title games played in Indy by coming back from double-digit deficits. The Colts trailed the Pats by 18 points back in the 2006 AFC championship games (21-3) but came back to win 38-34. Sunday, they overcame a 17-6 deficit to win 30-17. Jim Caldwell becomes only the fifth rookie coach to reach the Super Bowl. San Francisco’s George Seifert (1989) and Don McCafferty of the Baltimore Colts (1970) are the only ones to win.

Meanwhile, the Saints will be making their first-ever Super Bowl appearance in their 42nd year. That leaves just four franchises which have not appeared in a Super Bowl the Jaguars (1995) and Texans (2002), who both haven’t been around very long, as well as the long-suffering Lions (1934) and Browns (1950). The early line on Super Bowl XLIV is the Colts minus-5 with a total of 56. Note that since 1990 (12-team playoff field), favorites are 14-5 SU but just 8-9-2 ATS in the Super Bowl. The average margin of victory has been 12.3 PPG with the average game score being 49.7 PPG (10 overs and nine unders).

Jets at Colts:

The Colts were the heavy favorites but the Jets were expected to be able to run the football and their defense was the league’s best, so it was not unreasonable to believe their were a ‘live’ underdog. Conventional wisdom said if the Jets fell behind and had to rely on Sanchez they were ‘dead,’ but when the Jets led 17-6 with just over two minutes to go before the half, they were “looking good.” So much for that! The Colts took over at their own 20 and after an incompletion, Manning hit rookie Austin Collie three consecutive times, the last one for a TD. The Colts were back within 17-13 at the half and it was “all Indy” the rest of the way.

The Jets D ranked No. 1 in PPG (14.8) and YPG (252.3) but allowed 30 points and 461 yards. The Jets ranked No. 1 in passing yards allowed (154), No. 1 in opponents completions (51.7), No. 1 in opponents QB rating (58.8) plus had allowed just eight TD passes with 17 INTs (all regular season numbers). All Peyton did was go 26-of-39 (66.7 percent) for 377 yards with three TDs and zero INTs, posting a QB rating of 123.6. Wayne and Clark had each caught 100 passes this season but both were pretty much contained. So instead, Manning went to Garcon, a second-year WR from Mount Union and BYU rookie Austin Collie.

Garcon, who had four catches as a rookie and 47 this year, set career highs with 11 catches and 151 yards. Collie, who had 60 catches and seven TDs this season, caught a career high seven balls and topped 100 yards for the first time with 123. Each player had a TD catch. The Colts running game, which ranked last in the league during the regular season (80.9 YPG / 3.5 YPG) and was limited to 42 yards on 25 carries (1.7 YPC) vs the Ravens last weekend, ran for 101 yards on 24 attempts (4.2 YPC) vs the Jets, led by Joseph Addai (16 carries for 80 yards).

The Jets led the NFL with 172.3 YPG (4.5 YPC) on the ground during the regular season and in two postseason wins in 2009, had run for 170.0 YPG (4.3 YPC). However, the Jets were held to just 86 yards rushing on 29 carries (3.0 YPC), as Shonn Greene, the rookie who had run for 135 and 128 yards the last two weekends, was held to 41 on 10 carries and left the game early in the third QB. Thomas Jones, who toped 1,000 yards for the fifth straight season in 2009 with a career high 1,402 yards (as well as a career high 14 rushing TDs), was a non-factor all postseason, rushing for just 117 on 45 carries (2.6 YPC), including 42 yards an 16 carries vs the Colts.

Rookie QB Mark Sanchez became the fourth rookie QB to lead his team to the conference title game and lose but surely has nothing to be ashamed of, completing 17-of-30 passes for 257 yards, his third-best total of the season (18 games). He threw two TDs and his only INT of the entire postseason (68 attempts) came late, after the game had been decided. His QB rating of 93.3 for the game, dwarfs the 60.3 rating he posted during the regular season. Going 2-1 in the playoffs in his rookie season (all games came on the road), is quite an achievement. Remember, Manning is just 9-8 all-time in the postseason, including 2-5 on the road.

Vikings at Saints:

The Vikings outgained the Saints 475 yard to 257 and had 31 FDs compared to 15 for the Saints. However, while the Saints made just one miscue (Reggie Bush’s fumbled punt in the late second quarter), the Vikings fumbled six times (losing three) with Brett Favre throwing two INTs. That’s FIVE turnovers for Minnesota and just one for New Orleans. Three of Minnesota’s turnovers were “game-changers,” the first being the botched hand-off between Favre and Peterson inside the Saints’ five-yard line right after Bush’s fumbled punt (game was tied 14-all). The second came with the scored tied at 21-all and set up the Saints with a first down at the Minnesota seven-yard line (Saints would go up 28-21) and the last of course, was Favre’s final interception (more on that later).

For the Vikings it was a game of “missed opportunities,” while the Saints maximized their chances. Brees averaged 292.5 YPG through the air during the regular season but threw for just 197 yards against the Vikings. After running for 171 yards (on 34 carries / 5.0 YPC) against the Cardinals, the Saints ran for just 68 yards against the Vikings on 23 carries (3.0 YPC). Yet, the Saints would score 31 points. Brees threw for three TDs without an INT (106.5 QB rating) and while Bush, who had posted 217 all-purpose yards vs the Cardinals did very little with 41 all-purpose yards, Pierre Thomas picked up the slack with 139 all-purpose yards.

Favre took a terrible beating and one must admire this 40-year-old and what he’s accomplished this year but AGAIN, he threw a “very stupid” interception at a critical time. This has plagued Favre his entire career. Favre’s career seemed about over when the Packers went 4-12 in 2005 with Brett throwing just 20 TDs and a league-high 29 INTs. Green Bay went 8-8 in 2006, with Brett matching a career-low with 18 TDs (had 18 INTs), while completing a career-low 56.0 percent. However, he rebounded to lead the Packers to a 13-3 record in 2007, completing 66.5 percent of his passes for over 4,000 yards with 28 TDs and 15 INTs.

The Packers hosted the Giants in the NFC championship game that year but Favre famously threw an “awful” interception on the first possession of OT, setting up the Giants game-winning FG. He led the Jets to an 8-3 start last year but the team lost four its final five games with Favre throwing just two TDs and nine INTs down the stretch. His 2009 season with Minnesota was one of his best (at 40 years old!) but it was “déjà vu all over again” on Sunday. The Vikings had a chance to run the clock down for a final play that could have been a 51-yard FG attempt, facing a third-and-10 from the New Orleans 33-yard line. Instead, they called a timeout with the intent of running another play to get slightly closer.

The Vikings screwed that up by getting called for 12 men on the field, moving them back five more yards. That forced Favre to throw for more significant yardage and on the team’s fateful last play, he passed up a chance at running for five or more yards, and instead threw a late and ill-advised pass toward Sidney Rice which was intercepted by Tracy Porter. It was an all-too-familiar ending. It was Favre’s second INT of the game and the sixth time in his last seven playoff losses that he had thrown at least two interceptions. Overall, Favre has 19 interceptions in those seven losses.

I knew I could count on Chris Berman and Tom Jackson of ESPN to “bail out” Favre. Jackson was at his best saying, “He’s not afraid to throw a pick. That’s the thing I admire most about him.” How about that for logic? Can you imagine what they’d be saying about that pass if it had been thrown by someone like Jay Cutler, Jason Campbell, Rex Grossman or Joey Harrington (remember him?)? Why not say this, Tom? “I really like Adrian Peterson because he’s not afraid to fumble!”

Good luck, Larry

The NFL conducted a season-long celebration of the 50th anniversary of the AFL during the 2009 season, as most know. Using simple math, one didn’t have to attend Ohio University to realize that since the AFL began in 1960 and the first year of the merger was the 1970 season, that this weekend’s AFC and NFC championship games are celebrating their 40th anniversary. Both home teams have won and advanced to the Super Bowl 15 times, there have 22 years in which one visiting and one home team won and advanced and just two times, both visiting teams have won and advanced to the Super Bowl.

Those two instances occurred in 1992 (Buffalo won 29-10 at Miami while Dallas won 30-20 at San Francisco) and in 1997 (Denver won 24-21 at Pittsburgh while Green Bay won 23-10 at San Francisco). From 1981 through 1984, home teams were dominant on championship weekend, winning all eight games. However, from 1998 through 2005 (an eight-year span), one home team and won visiting team each season. Both home teams won in 2006 (the Colts 38-34 over the Pats plus the bears 39-14 over the Saints), it was a split in 2007 (Pats won at home over the Chargers with the Giants winning at the Packers) and then last year both home teams won again (Steelers over the Ravens and the Cardinals over the Eagles).

Both No. 1 seeds (Colts and Saints) have advanced to the NFL’s version of its Final Four for the first time since 2004, the Vikings are the NFC’s No. 2 seed and the 9-7 Jets are the AFC’s No. 5 seed. The Jets are also just the fifth 9-7 team to advance to a conference championship game since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule back in 1978. The first team to do it was the the 1979 Rams, who beat the 10-6 Bucs in Tampa, 9-0. The 1984 Steelers went 9-7 and lost 45-28 in Miami to the the 14-2 Dolphins, the 1996 Jaguars were 9-7 and lost in New England to the 11-5 Patriots 20-6 and just last year, the 9-7 Cardinals beat the 9-6-1 Eagles 30-24 at home in a game which featured the worst combined records (18-15-1, .578) of any two championship game opponents.

I’ve been focusing on the point spread records since 1990 in each of my previews, as this is when the NFL went to its 12-team playoff field. This marks the 20th playoff season since that time and home teams are 23-15 SU (.605) over the 19 postseasons in the conference championship games, failing to win reach 50 percent ATS at 18-19-1 (48.6 percent). That’s significantly lower than in the wildcard round, where home teams went 51-25 SU (.671) and 40-33-3 ATS or in the divisional round, where home teams have gone 56-20 SU (.737) and 39-35-3 ATS. Home teams have gone 2-2 SU and ATS in the wildcard round and 3-1 SU and ATS in the divisional round.

One could argue it makes sense that road teams in conference championship games would do well, as by this time, teams have played at least one and sometimes two games. Playing away from home generally affects good teams less than weak ones. However, that would not explain why home teams went 18-6 SU (.750) and 17-7 ATS (70.8 percent) in conference championship games from 1978 through 1989 (the NFL expanded its schedule to 16 games beginning in 1978). Both home teams have won their conference championship games six times, on two occasions both visiting teams have won and in the other 11 seasons, one home and one road team has won.

Home teams are 5-3 SU and ATS through eight postseason games this year with favorites going 4-4 ATS (Arizona was a home dog vs Green Bay). The pointspread has not come into play in a single game, as every favorite to win SU has covered, or the game’s underdog has won outright (Jets in both of their wins, along with the Ravens against the Pats and the Cards over the Packers). The average margin of victory after those eight games is a healthy 17.2 PPG. In comparison there had been a total of 209 playoff games (including Super Bowls) since 1990 heading into this postseason. The average margin of victory in those games was just under two TDs, at 13.1 PPG.

This has become a recurring theme and history shows that the pointspread comes into play least often in the conference championship round since 1990. The SU winner in the 38 conference championship games since 1990 has also covered the spread in 32 of those wins with one push and just five ATS losses. Doing the math, the SU winner has covered the spread in 86.5 percent of the conference championship games. Twenty-six of the 38 games (68.4 percent) have been decided by more than seven points and 14 of the 38 (36.8 percent) have been decided by more than 14 points. However, while from 2002 through 2005 both conference championship games were decided by double digits, five of the last six (including both in the past two seasons) have been decided by single digits.

There here have been five overs and three unders this postseason with the average score being 32.3 PPG for the winning team and 15.1 PPG for the losing team. The history of this round since 1990 shows that the overs have been more prevalent, cashing 23 times with 14 unders and one push (62.1 percent). However, the average games score of 43.4 PPG is no higher than the wildcard average of 43.0 or the divisional round average of 43.2. Margin of victory has also been amazingly similar with wildcard games being decided by 12.4 PPG, divisional round games by 14.0 PPG and conference championship games by 13.4 PPG.

NY Jets at Ind Colts (Colts minus-7 1/2 and the total is 39):

These teams met in Week 16 but little can be drawn from that meeting as the Colts famously (infamously?) removed their starters in the third quarter with a 15-10 lead, making it easier for the Jets to score the game’s final 19 points in a 29-15 victory. This marks the first conference championship game to feature two rookie head coaches (Rex Ryan and Jin Caldwell) and it also matches two teams which couldn’t be less alike. The Jets were the NFL’s No. 1 rushing team during the regular season (172.3 YPG / 4.5 YPC) while the Colts were the worst (80.9 YPG / 3.5 YPC).

The Jets will go with rookie QB Mark Sanchez, who completed only 53.8 percent of his passes in 2009, averaging 162.9 YPG with 12 TDs and 20 INTs (63.9 QB rating). Meanwhile, the Colts have some guy named Peyton Manning, who will likely finish his career as the the NFL’s all-time leader is almost every significant category. He topped 4,000 yards passing (his 4,500 yards were 57 yards of a single-season high) for the 10th time in his last 11 years, completed 68.8 percent of his passes with 33 TDs and 16 INTs (99.9 QB rating).

Sanchez became just the fourth rookie QB to win his playoff debut when the Jets won at Cincinnati on January 9 and last Sunday in San Diego, joined Joe Flacco as the only QBs to earn two wins in their rookie seasons (Flacco did it last year with the Ravens). Sanchez was efficient in the win over the Bengals, going 12-of-15 for 182 yards with one TD pass and zero INTs (139.4 rating). However, he completed just 12-of-23 passes for 100 yards with one TD and one INT vs the Chargers (60.1 rating), registering the fewest passing yards by a Jets QB in a playoff win (minimum 20 attempts).

Manning was solid vs the Ravens, completing 30-of-44 passes for 246 yards with two TDs and one INT. However, the Colts ran for just 42 yards on 25 attempts (1.7 YPC). Can they win (or cover?) doing that again? For all his accomplishments, Manning is just 8-8 in the playoffs (includes a 4-0 mark when the team won the Super Bowl in 2006). The Colts have won seven division titles this decade and their 128 wins are not only more than any team this decade, it’s the most wins of any team in any decade in NFL history. However, the Colts own just one Super Bowl appearance in that span, beating the Bears in Super Bowl XLI.

The Jets beat the Colts in Super Bowl III, arguably the most important football game in NFL history. In their win last Sunday over the 13-3 Chargers, the Jets became just the second 9-7 team since 1997 to beat a team in a divisional playoff game that was 12-4 or better. Here, they meet the 14-2 Colts and the five-game difference between two teams meeting in a conference championship game matches the largest margin since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule (in 1978). It’s happened just two times before, both in the 1984 season. The 14-2 Dolphins beat the 9-7 Steelers 45-28 in the AFC championship game that season, while the 15-1 49ers beat the 10-6 Bears 23-0 in the NFC title game.

Min Vikings at the NO Saints (Saints minus-3 1/2 and the total is 53):

The Saints (31.9 PPG) and the Vikings (29.4 PPG) were the two highest scoring teams in the NFL during the regular season and New Orleans scored 45 points in beating the Cardinals last weekend (Brees completed 71.9 percent of his passes with three TDs, no INTs and a QB rating of 125.4) while the Vikings scored 34 points in beating the Cowboys (Favre threw four TD passes for the first time in 23 career playoff games, posting a 134.4 rating). Head coach Sean Payton and Drew Brees arrived in New Orleans for the 2006 season and have led a major turnaround. Favre famously came out of retirement again to play in 2009 and is one win away from leading the Vikings to their first Super Bowl appearance since the 1976 season and his first trip back since the 1997 season.

The Saints were 63-97 (.394) in the 10 years prior to the arrival of Brees and Payton but are 38-26 (.594) these last four years, while averaging 27.6 PPG (third-best in the NFL in that span). Brees has topped 4,000 yards in passing all four seasons (threw for 5,069 in 2008) with 122 TDs and 57 INTs. His QB rating of 109.6 in 2009 represents a career-best. Favre threw 33 TDs (9th time in 19 seasons) and just seven INTs (fewest in a season by far, as his lowest had been 13) in 2009, posting career bests in completion percentage (68.4) and QB rating (107.2).

While the QB matchup takes center stage in this game, which team runs the ball better may be the deciding factor. The Vikings have Adrian Peterson but the Saints averaged more YPG on the ground during the regular season than the Vikings (131.6-to-119.9) plus averaged more yards per carry (4.5-to-4.1). Note that while the Saints ran for 171 yards vs the Cards last week (Bush had 217 all-purpose yards), the Vikings had just 92 yards rushing vs the Cowboys (3.7 YPC), as AP was held to 63 yards on 26 carries (2.4 YPC).

It can’t go unmentioned that AP has failed to gain 100 yards now in EIGHT consecutive games, averaging 66.1 YPG during that span and 3.3 YPC. However, the Saints allowed 122.2 YPG on the ground this year (4.5 YPC), while the Vikings ranked second in the NFL in rushing D, allowing 87.1 YPG (3.9 YPC). I should point out though, that after Hightower ran 70 yards on Arizona’s first play from scrimmage last weekend, the Saints held the Cards to just 31 yards rushing on 14 attempts the rest of the way. Neither pass D has posted good numbers but while the Vikings allowed 26 TDs and intercepted just 11 passes, the Saints allowed a modest 15 TD passes and came away with 26 INTs.

Enjoy the games and I’ll be back Monday with a recap.

Good luck, Larry

The Texas Longhorns rose to No. 1 back on January 11. Kansas was the nation’s preseason No. 1 and stayed atop the rankings until losing 76-68 at Tennessee on January 10, which gave Texas its opportunity to claim the AP’s top spot for the first time in school history. The Longhorns would garner 56 of the AP’s 65 first-place votes with Kentucky (the only other unbeaten team) getting the other nine. Kansas would fall to No. 3 back on January 11, ending a nine-week run at No. 1. That gave Kansas 51 weeks all-time as the nation’s No. 1 team, the fifth most of any school.

Texas won 90-83 at Iowa State on January 13, winning its first-ever game as the nation’s No. 1 team. The Longhorns then edged Texas A&M back in Austin last Saturday (Jan 16), 72-67 in overtime. As the saying goes, “uneasy is the head that wears the crown.” Texas’ (17-0) two close wins allowed them to remain the AP’s No. 1 team again as the new week opened on Monday (Jan 18), as the Longhorns actually gained one first-place vote (received 57 of 65). Kentucky (18-0), still the nation’s only other unbeaten team, was a solid No. 2 getting the other eight first-place votes.

However, the Longhorns’ 17-game winning streak ended Monday night, as the Wildcats beat them 71-62. Kansas State moved up to No. 9 in the latest AP poll earlier in the day (KSU’s first top-10 ranking since the Wildcats finished the 1972-73 season ranked 9th by the AP) and celebrated Monday night by knocking off the nation’s No. 1 team. Neither team shot well but KSU held Texas (averaging just over 89 PPG) to a season-low 62 points. Despite KSU’s two high-scoring guards Pullen and Clemente shooting a combined 4-of-24 from the floor, KSU improved to 16-2 on the season, including 11-0 (6-0 ATS) in Manhattan.

So look who is poised to claim the nation’s No. 1 ranking come next Monday? John Calipari and his undefeated Kentucky Wildcats have just one game on this week’s schedule and that’s a Saturday home game vs the 8-9 Arkansas Razorbacks (Arkansas will host Florida on Thursday night, before visiting Lexington). Calipari’s success is unquestioned at the college level (we’ll not dwell on his stint as the Nets’ head coach). He took over U Mass at the beginning of the 1988-89 season and stayed eight years. The Minutemen would go the the NCAA tourney in each of his last five seasons, including reaching the Final 4 in his final season of 1995-96.

U Mass was 142-25 (.850) In Calipari’s last five years in Boston with his Final 4 team going 31-1. He then left for the NBA but returned to the college ranks at Memphis to begin the 2000-01 season. The Tigers would win 253 games in his nine seasons while posting nine consecutive 20-win seasons, including an NCAA record four consecutive 30-win seasons from 2005-06 through 2008-09. His teams earned nine consecutive postseason bids, including six NCAA appearances. In his three trips to the NIT, Calipari’s teams made it to Madison Square Garden each time, winning the title in 2002.

Calipari’s Memphis team was a collective 137-14 (.907) over the last four seasons, the most wins in any four-year stretch in college basketball history. The 2007-08 team went 38-2, setting an NCAA record for wins in a single season but lost in the national championship game to Kansas when the Jayhawks rallied from nine points down with 2:12 left in regulation to send the game into OT where Kansas would prevail 75-68. However, as everyone is aware, both of Calipari’s Final 4 teams, the 1995-96 Minutemen and the 2007-08 Tigers, have had their Final 4 appearances vacated by the NCAA for rules violations.

Calipari inherited a Kentucky which had won 18 games two years ago (lost in the first round of the NCAA tourney) and 22 games last year (lost in the NIT quarterfinals). The 6-4 Jodie Meeks (23.7 PPG), who broke Dan Issel’s 39-year-old record of 53 points in one game last season when he had 54 in a 90-72 win over Tennessee on January 13, declared for the NBA draft and was taken in the second round by the Milwaukee Bucks, the 41st player chosen. Through January 19, Meeks is averaging only 13.5 MPG and averaging a modest 4.8 PPG. He would have been an outstanding perimeter scorer for the Wildcats this year and one wonders just how good the 2009-10 Wildcats would have been if Meeks had stayed?

Clearly, the 2009-10 edition of the Wildcats is pretty darned good even without Meeks. The 6-9 Patrick Patterson returned for his junior season and has averaged 16.3 PPG and 7.9 RPG plus sophomore guard Darius Miller has chipped in 7.3 PPG. However, it’s “the new guys” (a Calipari staple), who have been the difference-makers for the Wildcats. No one has made a bigger impression than 6-4 freshman guard John Wall, who leads the team in scoring (17.1) and assists (6.9), while adding 3.7 RPG. Two more freshman, the 6-11 Cousins (15.3-9.3) and 6-1 guard Bledsoe (11.4-2.8-3.0) have also made major contributions.

The 6-7 Darnell Dodson (7.1) is a “Calipari special.” Dodson was signed by Pitt in 2007 but didn’t make it through the NCAA Clearinghouse and enrolled at Miami-Dade CC. He was not allowed to return to the Big East, so he signed with Memphis and played a second season with Miami-Dade (a school which featured six other Div I signees last season). He was set to join Memphis this year but when Calipari left for Kentucky and brought assistant Orlando Antigua with him (Antigua is a former Pitt assistant who originally recruited Dodson for the Panthers), Dodson was allowed to follow the two coaches to Lexington.

Kentucky is averaging 82.2 PPG while shooting 50.0 percent as a team. The Wildcats are holding opponents to 65.3 PPG on 38.4 percent from the floor, an average margin of victory of 16.9 points. However, despite its 18-0 mark, Kentucky is a modest 8-8 ATS. While it’s unlikely the Wildcats will go through the season unbeaten, it’s highly likely they’ll move to 19-0 this coming Saturday by beating the mediocre Razorbacks. A win will guarantee that the Wildcats will be the nation’s new No. 1 team come Monday.

If so, it will mark the 89th time the Wildcats will have been voted the AP’s No. 1 team, the fourth-most of any school. UCLA has spent 134 weeks as the AP’s No. 1 team, the most of any school. Duke has been ranked No. 1 the second-most of any school, spending 111 weeks at No. 1 with North Carolina claiming the top spot 105 times.

Closing thought: Where is the Pac 10? Not a single Pac 10 team was listed among the AP’s top-25 poll released back on January 11. Again this week when the the latest poll was released on January 18, no Pac 10 team made the list. Looking among the category of “others to have received votes,” one will find Arizona State (14-5) ranked 43rd, behind noted basketball powerhouses like Cornell, William & Mary, Louisiana Tech and Old Dominion. Cal (11-6) and Washington (12-5) were both among the preseason top-25 teams with Cal ranked 13th and Washington 14th but neither school received a single vote in the latest poll. John Wooden is not pleased.

Good luck, Larry

Home teams went 2-2 SU and ATS in the wildcard round with underdogs going 3-1 ATS (huge move on the GB/Ari game saw the Cards go from 2 1/2-point favorites to 2 1/2-point underdogs by game time). All four games went over the total (had been 32 overs, 43 unders and one push since 1990) and of course the average of 57.3 PPG was skewered by the GB/Ari game (other three games averaged 44.3 PPG which was consistent with the previous 76 wild card games which averaged 43.0). However, the average margin of victory in the NFL’s opening round was 13.8 PPG, just slightly higher than the 19-year average of 12.4 PPG for the wildcard round.

The NFL’s divisional round was contested this past weekend and has discussed in Friday’s notes, three of this year’s four top seeds had ‘limped’ into the postseason. So what happens? The three so-called “struggling teams,” the Saints, Colts and Vikings win 45-14, 20-3 and 34-3, respectively. That’s a combined score of 99-20! Meanwhile, the Chargers (who entered on an 11-game winning streak having gone 7-3-1 ATS), were upset by the Jets (plus-8 1/2) 17-14. Unfortunately for San Diego fans its was “déjà vu all over again,” as in 2006 the team entered that postseason on a 10-game winning streak and with a 14-2 record held the AFC’s No. 1 seed but lost its first playoff game 24-21 to the Patriots.

Let me also note that the Colts took a nine-game winning streak into last year’s postseason, only to lose their first game as well, 23-17 (OT) at San Diego in the wildcard round. The Colts and Saints both opened the 2009 regular season at 13-0 (first time in NFL history two teams had reached that plateau in the same season) but both teams were roundly criticized for “calling off the dogs” down the stretch. That’s behind both No. 1 seeds now, as the Colts and Saints will host championship games next Sunday. In fact, it marks the first time since 2004 that the No. 1 seed in each conference has advanced to the conference championship games.

As mentioned at the top, home teams went 2-2 SU and ATS in the wildcard round with underdogs going 3-1 ATS. However, home teams (all favorites) went 3-1 SU and ATS in the divisional round. That reversed a recent trend in which visiting teams (all underdogs) had gone 10-2 ATS the past three seasons in the divisional round. The high scoring trend of this postseason continued in Saturday’s first game (Saints led the Cowboys 35-14 at the half), as despite no points being scored in the game’s final 21 1/2 minutes, the Cowboys and Saints went over the closing total of 56 1/2 with New Orleans’ 45-14 win.

That result gave us five straight overs to open the 2009 postseason, with games averaging 57.6 PPG. However, the Colts’ 20-3 win over the Ravens on Saturday was the first of three straight unders to conclude the weekend’s action. Both games went under on Sunday (Vikes beat Cowboys 34-3 and Jets upset the Chargers 17-14), as the final three games of the divisional round averaged a more playoff-like 30.3 PPG. The average winning score for the weekend was 29.0 PPG, while the four losing teams averaged a modest 8.5 PPG. Only one of the four games (NYJ/SD) was decided by less than 17 points, which is similar to the wildcard round in which only one game (GB/Ari) was decided by less than 10 points.

As I continue to point out, it really is surprising that when the NFL’s best teams square off in the postseason, close games are the exception, not the rule. Heading into this season, the average margin of victory since 1990 (76 games) had been 12.4 PPG for the wildcard round and this year’s four games saw teams win by 13.8 PPG. The average margin of victory in the divisional round since 1990 had been 14.0 PPG but despite a three-point game between the Jets and Chargers, the average margin of victory in this past weekend’s four games was 20.5 PPG!

Home teams are 5-3 SU and ATS through eight postseason games with favorites going 4-4 ATS (Arizona was a home dog vs Green Bay). The pointspread has not come into play in a single game, as every favorite to win SU has covered, or the game’s underdog has won outright (Jets in both of their wins, along with the Ravens against the Pats and the Cards over the Packers). There have been five overs and three unders (most recent three games), and the average score has been 32.3 PPG for the winning team and 15.1 PPG for the losing team.

The average margin of victory after eight games is a healthy 17.2 PPG. In comparison, since the NFL adopted its present 12-team playoff format in 1990, there had been a total of 209 playoff games (including Super Bowls) heading into this postseason. The average margin of victory in those games was just under two TDs, at 13.1 PPG. Taking a quick peek ahead to Sunday’s championship games, the Saints are favored by 4 1/2 points over the Vikings (52 1/2) and the Colts are 7 1/2-point choices over the Jets (40 1/2). Note that since 1990, home teams are 23-15 SU but just 18-19-1 ATS over the last 38 championship games with the average margin of victory being 13.4 PPG (28.4-15.0).

Good luck…Larry

The Cards, Cowboys, Jets and Ravens advanced last week and all four will play on the road this week against rested teams which were able to have last weekend off after a grueling 17-week (16-game) regular season. As I’ve mentioned in previous columns, the NFL has featured a 12-team playoff field since 1990. Since that time, the teams with the best records in each conference have had a bye during wildcard weekend and the No. 1 seeds from each conference get to host games on Saturday, which sometimes give them the added advantage of playing teams off short rest. That applies this year with both the Cards (who play the Saints) and the Ravens (who play the Colts) both played last Sunday.

However, three of this year’s four top seeds have ‘limped’ into the postseason. The Colts own the NFL’s best overall record at 14-2 but as everyone remembers, Indy opened the year 14-0 while breaking the NFL’s all-time record for regular season wins (Colts won 23 straight, including their final nine games of the 2008 regular season), before “throwing in the towel” in the third quarter of their Week 16 with the Jets. The Jets would score the game’s final 19 points in a 29-15 win and then the Colts lost 30-7 at Buffalo in Week 17.

It should also be noted that even while winning, the Colts have hardly been dominant in 2009. Seven of the team’s 14 wins have come by four points or less and the Colts have been outgained in seven of their last nine games. The Saints are the NFC’s No. 1 seed and by losing their final three games, become the first-ever No. 1 seed to enter the playoffs on a three-game winning streak. New Orleans opened the year 6-0 SU and ATS (averaging 39.7 PPG) but were just 2-8 ATS over their final 10 games, including 0-5 in their last five (Saints were outgained in their final four games!)

Minnesota, is the NFC’s No. 2 seed and the Vikes are in only slightly better current form. Minnesota lost three of its final five games (ATS), although all three losses came on the road and Minnesota is at home on Sunday where it is 8-0 SU, but then again, so were the Pats!. San Diego is the lone ‘hot’ team among the top-four seeds, having won 11 in a row (7-3-1 ATS). With that in mind, one wonders if the bye week was a good thing for Chargers, who may have wanted to be on the field this past weekend, as to not lose any of their momentum (we’ll see).

Home teams have gone 56-20 SU and 39-35-2 ATS (52.7 percent) in this round since 1990. Favorites are 53-22 SU and 36-37-2 ATS (49.3 percent) with the the Indy/New England game in 2004 closing at ‘pick.’ There have been 37 overs, 38 unders and one ‘push,’ as the 76 games have averaged 43.2 PPG with the average margin of victory being 14.0 PPG. Forty of the 76 previous games have been decided by more than 10 points and 30 (39.5 percent) by 14 points or more. All four games went over the total last week (had been 32 overs, 43 unders and one push since 1990) and of course the average of 57.3 PPG was skewered by the GB/Ari game (other three games averaged 44.3 PPG which was consistent with the previous 76 wild card games which averaged 43.0 ). However, the average margin of victory last week was 13.8 PPG, just slightly higher than the 19-year average of 12.4 PPG for the wildcard round.

Favorites have had their greatest success in the divisional round of the playoffs but recently, underdogs (synonymous with road teams during this span) have been the “way to go.” In each of the previous three seasons, the home team was favored in every divisional round game, yet the road team was able to win seven of the 12 games SU while going 10-2 ATS. For the fourth consecutive year, all four home teams are favored again and as of Friday at 12 noon ET, the lines and totals of this weekend’s games are the following. The Saints are minus-7 (57), the Colts minus-6 1/2 (44), the Vikings minus-2 1/2 (45 1/2) and the Chargers minus-7 1/2 (42).

Will the team which gets the better effort from their respective QBs be the one which will come out on top? Here’s a few thoughts on the four QB matchups. Two games features excellent QB duels and two others seem like mismatches. Saturday’s first game features Kurt Warner vs Drew Brees and Sunday’s first game matches Tony Romo against Brett Favre. The late games on the two days will match Joe Flacco vs Peyton Manning and Mark Sanchez vs Philip Rivers.

It doesn’t get much better than Warner vs Brees. Warner’s a two-time MVP (1999 and 2001) and has led three teams to a Super Bowl, the Rams in in ‘99 and ‘01 plus the Cards last year. Warner threw five TD passes and completed 29 of 33 passes for 379 yards in last Sunday’s 51-45 victory over the Packers. He became one of the very few QBs in NFL history to throw more touchdowns (5) than incompletions (4) in a playoff game. Warner finished the game with the second highest quarterback rating in NFL playoff history (154.1) and became the second quarterback to throw for five TD passes in a playoff game twice (first to do so since the merger). Warner is now 9-3 as a playoff starter, including 7-0 at home (that won’t help Saturday with the game in New Orleans.

Brees has topped 4.000 yards passing in all four of his seasons with the Saints (5,069 in 2008) , owns a 122-57 TD-to-INT ratio in that span and in 2009 set a single-season record by completing 70.62 percent of his passes (Ken Anderson completed 70.55 back in 1982). However, while the Saints have had the NFL’s No. 1 total offense in three of the four seasons since the arrival of Brees and coach Sean Payton, they have just one playoff win. Brees is 1-1 as playoff starter with the Saints and 0-1 in his once chance (2004) with the Chargers.

Tony Romo came into the 2009 postseason with an 0-2 record but was outstanding against Philly, completing 23-of-35 passes for 2444 yards with two TDs and zero INTs (104.9 QB rating). Romo’s completing 67.5 percent of his passes over Dallas’ last seven games, averaging 300.4 YPG with a TD-to-INT ratio of 13-2. Can he outplay Favre? Favre completed 68.1 percent of his passes this year (career high), threw for 4,202 yards (3rd-best total of his career) and topped 30 TD passes (33) for the ninth time. He had just seven INTs (fewest of any of his season) and had a career-best QB rating of 107.2 (career mark is 86.6).

Favre’s 12-10 as a playoff starter and his 10 losses is tied with Marino for the most all-time. He’s thrown 39 TDs but also 28 INTs, which is tied with Jim Kelly for the most in playoff history. Note that after winning the Super Bowl after the 1996 season and then losing to the Broncos in the Super Bowl after the 1997 season, Favre is just 3-6 as a playoff starter. His teams have missed the playoffs in five of his 12 seasons since Super Bowl XXXII and one wonders if his seventh postseason since that Super Bowl loss will be a “lucky 7.”

Mark Sanchez became just the fourth rookie QB in NFL history to win his postseason debut last weekend, joining Shaun King (’99 Bucs), Ben Roethlisberger (’04 Steelers) and Joe Flacco (’08 Ravens). Sanchez went 12 of 15 for 182 yards (one TD / 0 INTs) and had a passer rating of 139.4. He’s now gone three games without an interception (just 50 attempts) but also has passed for a modest 351 yards. Will he be good enough to keep San Diego’s offense ‘honest?’ Will the Jets D stand up to Philip Rivers?

Rivers took over for Brees four years ago and has completed 63.2 percent of his passes while averaging right at 3,700 yards per season through the air, going over 4,000 yards in each of the last two. He’s thrown 105 TDs with just 44 INTs in that span and takes a 3-3 record as a playoff starter into Sunday’s game. Note that the Chargers averaged 28.4 PPG in 2009 (4th-best) and San Diego has now averaged more than 25 points per game for the sixth consecutive year. Think that’s easy to do? The only other NFL team to average that many points per game over that many seasons was Paul Brown’s Cleveland Browns from 1950 to 1955!

In the weekend’s only rematch from a regular season game, the Ravens at the Colts, the QB ‘battle’ seems like a total mismatch with Joe Flacco taking on Peyton Manning. Peyton just won his 4th MVP award (most of all-time) and his accomplishments are too lengthy to mention. However, with all his success, he’s got just one Super Bowl ring and if one were to take away his team’s 4-0 playoff run in 2006, Manning’s record as a playoff starter is just 3-8, including 0-3 (in ‘99, ‘05 and ‘07) when the Colts’ first playoff game came at home after getting a bye in the wildcard round (sound familiar?).

Now here’s the catch. What are we to make of Flacco? He’s 3-1 as a playoff starter with all four games coming on the road (this will be another road playoff start). How hard is it to win three playoff road games in a career, no less in under two full seasons? Let’s take a look. Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana both own four Super Bowl rings but neither owns three road wins as a playoff starter. Bradshaw went just 2-3 in five career playoff road games and Montana was even worse, going 2-5 (1-3 with SF and 1-2 with KC). Hard to believe isn’t it?

Flacco was a horrendous 4-of-10 for 34 yards with one INT (0 TDs) in Baltimore’s 33-14 win at New England last Sunday, posting a QB rating of 10.0 (that’s not a typo!). The win tied him for the most playoff road wins of any active QB with Tom Brady (3-2 ) and Donovan McNabb (3-4). However, let me list Flacco’s passing stats in his other three playoff starts (two wins and a loss). He was 9-of-23 for 135 yards with no TDs or INTs (59.1 rating) in a 27-9 wild card win last year at Miami. He the went 11-of-22 for 161 yards with one TD (0 INTs) with a rating of 89.4 in a 13-10 win at Tennessee in last year’s divisional round.

In last year’s AFC championship game at Pittsburgh, Flacco was 13-of-30 for 141 yards without a TD and threw three INTs, posting an 18.2 rating. He may be 3-1 as a playoff starter but it seems quite a stretch to give him too much credit for that record. Then again, if he moves to 4-1 with a win over the Colts on Saturday, how do we explain it?

For you Cowboy fans, let me note that Roger Staubach was a perfect 5-0 in his only five playoff road starts. Not bad!

I’ll be back on Monday with a recap of the weekend’s games.

Good luck, Larry

It’s seems like just yesterday that South Carolina beat North Carolina St 7-3 and Boise St beat Oregon 19-8. In fact, the date was September 3, 2009 and those two games were the marquee contests of CFB 2009’s opening day (night) of action. September 5 marked the first Saturday of the season and shockwaves resonated across the nation when 2008 Heisman winner Sam Bradford of Oklahoma was injured the the first half of the then-No. 3 ranked Sooners’ game with then-No. 20 BYU. The Cougars would upset the Sooners 14-13 in that game and Bradford would sit out the team’s next three contests. He would return to lead a rout of Baylor on October 10 but the following week, in Oklahoma’s annual showdown with Texas, Bradford reinjured his shoulder and was done for the year.

Truth be told, after Oklahoma lost to BYU back on September 5, most close followers of the sport anticipated that the 2009 BCS championship game would pit the winner of the SEC championship game (Alabama vs Florida) against Texas. While all three schools had a handful of ’scares,’ that’s exactly what happened. Then, in the year’s biggest game, No. 1 Alabama vs No. 2 Texas in the Rose Bowl on January 7, Texas Colt McCoy was injured on the game’s fifth play. The Tide would go on to win 37-21 and the win gave Alabama its eighth major poll national championship, tying Notre Dame for the most ever.

Alabama coach Nick Saban became the second coach (Urban Meyer) to win two BCS national championships and with his first title coming with LSU in 2003, became the first head coach to win BCS titles with different schools. In fact, he’s the only head coach to have won a national title at more than one school since polls first appeared with the introduction of the AP poll back in 1936. Alabama finished 14-0 (as did Boise St) and those schools join Ohio State (2002) as the only three to have posted 14-0 records in Division I-A history (now FBS) . However, let me return the beginning of the year.

Florida was named preseason No.1 in the coaches’ poll (no sense talking about the AP poll, as it isn’t part of the BCS standings), garnering 53 of the 59 first-place votes. Texas came in No. 2 (four 1st place votes), Oklahoma No. 3 (one 1st place vote), USC No. 4 (one 1st place vote) and Alabama No. 5. The SEC had five schools in the top-25 (four in the top-10), with last year’s preseason No. 1 (Georgia) getting ranked No. 13. It was interesting to note that the MWC placed as many schools in the preseason top-25 (three) as the Big 10. Boise State (WAC) was the highest-ranked school from a non-BCS conference at No. 16. Boise’s ranking ties the highest preseason ranking of any non-BCS school (BCS’ first year was back in 1998) and the four schools from leagues without automatic BCS bids (TCU is 17th, Utah 18th and BYU 24th) represents the most-ever in a preseason poll from outside the six BCS conferences.

Also of note is that the Big East did not place a single team in the coaches preseason top-25. It marked the first time that a BCS conference got shut out of the top-25. It should be noted that no school has begun a season unranked by the coaches and gone on to play in the BCS title game (12 years). More recently, no school not in the coaches’ top-10 during the preseason has reached the title game over the last six years. It matters where a team is placed during the preseason, as it is very difficult to “come out of nowhere” and overtake the established schools.

That being said, both Alabama and Utah defied conventional wisdom in 2008 by beginning the season unranked and becoming a major part of the national title ‘picture.’ Utah finished as college football’s only unbeaten team in 2008 at 13-0, including its impressive 31-17 win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. The Tide won their first 12 games and took the nation’s No. 1 ranking into the SEC championship game before losing to Florida (a win would have had them in the BCS title game). TCU also began the 2008 season unranked but would finish at No. 7 in the season’s final poll, after beating then-unbeaten Boise State 17-16 in the Poinsettia Bowl. Boise State was also unranked in last year’s preseason pool but would finished ranked No. 13.

So how did the coaches do last year? Actually, not so well. Georgia was last year’s preseason No. 1 but the Bulldogs would go on to lose 41-30 at home to Alabama (trailed 31-0 at the half), 49-10 to Florida at Jacksonville and 45-42 at home to Georgia Tech (led 28-12 at the half). Georgia would beat Michigan State 24-12 in the Citrus Bowl (trailed 6-3 at the half) to finish 10-3 and ended the year ranked No. 10. The coaches hardly got that one right. That may be too critical but consider the following.

How many of last year’s preseason teams ended up in the top-25 at year’s end? The answer is just 12 (less than half). That means that 13 schools chosen by the coaches to be among the coming year’s top-25, didn’t live up to expectations. Six of the 13 didn’t even finish with a winning record, with 3-9 Michigan (ranked 24th in the preseason) and 4-8 Wisconsin (ranked 12th), being the “worst offenders.” Just one school (9-4 West Va, which opened at No. of the 13 which failed to end up in the final top-25 even won more than eight games.

That begs the question, how did this current season’s preseason rankings fare? Much better. Every school ranked in the top-10 in the preseason finished in the final top-25 poll except Oklahoma and Bradford’s injury was directly responsible for that. In all, 18 of the preseason’s top-25 teams found their way into the final poll. No. 1 Alabama opened at No. 5 in the preseason poll, No. 2 Texas at No. 2, No. 3 Florida began at No. 1, No. 4 Boise St at No. 16 and No. 5 Ohio St at No. 6. Other than Oklahoma, the only top-15 schools to not “make the grade” come the final poll were No. 12 Cal and No. 13 Georgia (both the Bears and Bulldogs finished with 8-5 records).

The biggest goof by the coaches was in the surprising strength of the Big East. The first BCS conference to get shut out of a preseason top-25 finished with three schools in the final poll. Cincinnati, No. 3 in the final BCS standings and a missed Texas FG against Nebraska away from playing in the BCS title game, finished No. 9 in the final coaches’ poll with a 12-1 record. Pitt finished at No. 15 with a 10-3 record, giving the school its first 10-win season since Dan Marino led the Panthers to an 11-1 record back in 1981. West Virginia finished 9-4 on the year and No. 22 in the final poll.

Bowl recap:

Favorites finished the 2009-10 bowl season 16-18 SU and 13-19-2 ATS (40.6 percent). Playing every underdog (using closing lines) left a bettor plus-4.7 net games. Under bettors eked out a profit as well, with 19 of the 34 games (55.9 percent) staying under the total for a net profit of plus-2.5 games. With 34 bowl games (68 schools) we saw eight, 6-6 teams play in the postseason. Two of those schools, Iowa State and Minnesota met in the Independence Bowl (Cyclones won 14-13) while the other six went 4-2 SU and ATS, including Bobby Bowden’s Florida State team.

The Seminoles’ 33-21 win over West Virginia upped Bowden’s career bowl record to 22-10-1 and his .682 bowl winning percentage is the best in NCAA history among coaches to coach in at least 20 bowl games. The Seminoles finished the season 7-6, giving Bowden his 33rd straight winning season at FSU after a 5-6 mark in his first year in Tallahassee. His overall record sits at 389-129-4, leaving him second all-time to Joe Paterno. Joe Pa wrapped up his 44th season on the sidelines at Penn State with a 19-17 win over LSU, his 394th career win. It was also his 24th career bowl victory, extending his own NCAA record.

The MWC had the best overall winning percentage of any conference going 4-1 SU and ATS, with the league’s best team, TCU, suffering the lone loss (to Boise St). The Big East went 4-2 SU and ATS, while the SEC finished 6-4 SU but 4-6 ATS. Don’t be too critical of the SEC’s overall record as Alabama’s win in the BCS title game gave the SEC its fourth straight national title and makes the conference 6-0 all-time in BCS championship games. The Big 10 went 4-3 SU (5-2 ATS), giving that conference its first winning bowl season since 2002 and it was a welcome sight after last year’s 1-6 SU (3-4 ATS) mark.

The MAC went 1-4 SU and 0-3-2 ATS this bowl season but the conference was also involved in arguably this year’s two most exciting bowl games. Bowling Green lost 43-42 to Idaho in the Humanitarian Bowl when the Vandals went for two and the win after scoring a TD with just four seconds remaining in the game. Central Michigan, playing as a ranked team (No. 25) for the first time in school history (and led by QB Dan LeFevour), ended the MAC’s 14-game bowl losing streak (1-12-1 ATS) with a 44-41 double-overtime win over Troy in the GMAC Bowl.

The Pac 10 was a dismal 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS during the recently completed bowl season while the ACC went 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS. Ga Tech lost 24-14 to Iowa in the Orange Bowl, as the ACC fell to 2-10 all-time in BCS Bowls. Putting that in perspective, Boise State of the WAC owns two BCS Bowls wins all by itself. Speaking of the Broncos, they entered the 2009 season with 98 wins for the decade, second behind Oklahoma’s 102. However, after all the dust had settled on this first decade of the new millennium, it’s Boise St which owns the most wins of any FBS program from 2000-09 with an overall mark of 112-17 (.868). The Sooners, who struggled to an 8-5 mark in 2009, rank second at 110-24 (.821).

I’ll be back on Friday with notes on the NFL’s upcoming divisional round of the 2009 postseason.

Good luck, Larry

The NFL’s wildcard weekend opened with Mark Sanchez becoming just the fourth rookie QB in NFL history to win his postseason debut, as the Jets beat the Bengals in Cincinnati 24-14. It ended with Arizona beating Green Bay 51-45 (OT), a game which ranks as the highest-scoring playoff game in NFL history. In between, the Cowboys made it a 3-0 sweep of the Eagles this year with a 34-14 win Saturday night at Dallas and the Ravens routed the Patriots 33-14 Sunday afternoon in Foxboro. Home teams went 2-2 SU and ATS with underdogs going 3-1 ATS (huge move on the GB/Ari game saw the Cards go from 2 1/2-point favorites to 2 1/2-point underdogs by game time.

All four games went over the total and the average score of the four games was 35.5-21.8 for an average margin of victory of 13.7 PPG. That’s nothing new (pointed out in last week’s article), as the average margin of victory in the previous 76 wildcard games since 1990 (when NFL expanded the playoff field to 12 teams) had been 12.4 PPG (27.7-15.3). Scoring was up this year but it’s amazing how similar the margins of victory have been through the years and in the individual rounds as well (more info on the divisional round will be provided in my Friday preview). As reported last week, 40 of the previous 76 wildcard games (52.6 percent) had been decided by 11 points or more and 29 (38.2 percent) by 14 points or more.

This weekend’s schedule is set with the Cards visiting New Orleans to play the top-seeded Saints at 4:30 ET on Saturday. The Saints opened as 6 1/2 point favorites with a total of 56 (as of 12 noon ET on Monday it was New Orleans minus-7 and 57). The Colts are the AFC’s No. 1 seed and will host the Ravens at 8:15 ET Saturday night. Indy opened as a 6 1/2-point choice with a total of 46 1/2 (it’s now Indy minus-6 1/2 and 44 1/2). The first of two Sunday games sees the Cowboys at the Vikings at 1:00 ET. Minnesota opened as a three-point choice with a total of 48 (it’s now Minny minus-2 1/2 and 46). The Jets will be in San Diego at 4:40 ET on Sunday in the second game. The Chargers opened as nine-point favorites with a total of 42 1/2. (it’s now SD minus-7 1/2 and 42 1/2). Unlike last week when all four games involved teams which had met during the regular season (three meetings in Week 17), only the Ravens and Colts met during the 2009 regular season with Indy winning 17-15 at Baltimore in Week 11. My divisional round preview will be posted on Friday.

Saturday recap:

The Bengals scored first on Saturday but the Jets took a 14-7 lead at half and were never headed. Mark Sanchez became just the fourth rookie QB in NFL history to win his postseason debut, joining Shaun King (’99 Bucs), Ben Roethlisberger (’04 Steelers) and Joe Flacco (’08 Ravens). Sanchez, unlike the other three rookie QBs who won their debuts, played well despite tough conditions. The Cincy defense tried its best to put the game in the hands of New York’s rookie QB but playing in single-digit wind chill conditions Sanchez went 12 of 15 for 182 yards and a passer rating of 139.4. ESPN threw up a graphic of the combined numbers of King, Big Ben and Flacco but while I wrote them down, I can’t find them now (it’s old age). Anyway, I do remember that the trio completed less than 50 percent of their passes and had an abysmally low QB rating.

The Jets ran for 171 yards, led by rookie Shonn Greene who had 135 yards, including a 39-yard TD. Greene is the third rookie since 2000 to rush for 100 yards in a playoff game and while the Bengals also ran for 171 yards (Cedric Benson ran for a Bengals-record 169 yards in a playoff game), Cincy managed little else. Palmer was awful (18-of-36 for 146 yards with one TD, one INT and a passer rating of 58.3) while Ochocinco had two catches for 28 yards. The Bengals have not won a playoff game since 1990 (0-3) and their 19-year drought is the longest active streak in the NFL.

The Eagles and Cowboys played a scoreless first quarter on Saturday night but Romo and the Cowboys broke the game open with five straight scoring drives in the second quarter to take a 27-7 halftime lead. Felix Jones added a 73 yard TD in the third quarter and the Cowboys made it a 3-0 sweep of the Eagles in 2009. Jones rushed 16 times for 148 yards (3rd-highest rushing total in Cowboys playoff history behind Tony Dorsett and Emmitt Smith) while Tony Romo got his first playoff win after losing his first two appearances. He finished 23-of-35 for 244 yards with two TDs and no INTs.

It was the Cowboys first playoff win since 1996, when they beat the Vikings in the wild card round, only to go on to lose to the Panthers in the divisional round. That loss to Carolina began a five-game playoff losing skid (1-4 ATS) that’s now over, ending a 4,760-day drought. It also marked head coach Wade Phillips’ first career postseason win in his fifth try. He had lost as Denver’s head coach in 1993, twice with Buffalo (’98 and ‘99) and with the Cowboys in 2007. The Eagles are “one-and-done” in the postseason for the first time under head coach Andy Reid, who took over the Eagles back in 1999. QB Donovan McNabb had started six of those seven games and took his first loss in a playoff opener, as well.

Sunday recap:

Bill Belichick, like Andy Reid, had been perfect in his playoff openers since taking over in New England (6-0 SU and 3-2-1 ATS). The Pats went 8-0 at home during the 2009 regular season and entered Sunday’s game with 11 straight home playoff wins since a 31-14 loss to the Houston Oilers in 1978. Baltimore’s 33-14 win marks the first home playoff loss for both Belichick and QB Tom Brady (now 8-1). Ray Rice scored on an 83-yard rushing TD on the first play from scrimmage (the second-longest rushing TD in postseason history) and it was all Baltimore the rest of the way.

Tom Brady lost a fumble and was picked off three times for the game, with three of his turnovers coming in the first quarter when Baltimore took a 24-0 lead, tying for the second-most first-quarter points in postseason history. Rice finished with a team playoff record 159 yards rushing (had two TDs), as the Ravens ran for a franchise playoff-game record 234 yards. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco was a pathetic 4-of-10 for 34 yards without a TD and with one INT (QB rating of 10.0!). However, he improved to 3-1 as a starting QB in the playoffs with all three wins coming on the road. His road three wins are tied for the most among active QBs, something I will elaborate on this coming Friday.

It would be hard to find a more entertaining game than Sunday’s Packers/Cardinals contest. Nothing went right for Green Bay in the first quarter and the Cards jumped out to a 17-0 lead. It was 24-10 at the half and when Arizona took a 31-10 lead early in the third quarter, the Packers looked ‘dead.’ I’m sure most if not all of you saw it, so I’ll just conclude that after the teams combined for 1,024 yards, the game was decided by Karlos Dansby’s 17-yard fumble return on the first possession of the overtime. The winning score came just 1:18 into the extra period, making it the second-quickest finish to an OT playoff game in NFL history.

It also marked just the second time (out of 26 previous postseason OT games) in which a defensive TD won the game. Green Bay was also involved in the other one, which occurred in a 2003 NFC wildcard game in which the Packers beat the Seahawks 33-27 when Al Harris ended the contest with a 52-yard interception return for the winning score. Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers completed 28-of-42 passes for 422 yards with four TDs and one INT, while Arizona’s Kurt Warner completed 29-of-33 for 379 yards with five TDs and zero INTs.

This was just the second time in the Super Bowl era in which both QBs threw for at least 300 yards and four passing TDs in the same game. Ironically, Kurt Warner has been involved in both. The other was the 1999 Divisional playoff game against Jeff George and the Vikings. It was Warner’s second career five-TD postseason game, joining Daryle “the Mad Bomber” Lamonica as the only players with a pair of games with at least five passing TDs. WR Larry Fitzgerald had two TD catches, giving him nine in his postseason career. That’s the highest total in NFL history through any player’s first five playoff games.

I’ll be back on Wednesday with a quick look back at the 2009 CFB season.

Good luck, Larry

NFL’s Second Season:

The NFC’s playoff field of six was set heading into last Sunday. The winner of the Philly/Dallas game would clinch the NFC East title and those two teams plus the Cards and Vikes all had some chance of earning the No. 2 seed (Saints had clinched the No. 1 seed in Week 16). As for the AFC, the four division winners were set with the Bengals and Pats ‘fighting’ over the No. 3 seed plus seven teams were still ‘alive’ (some just barely) for the AFC’s two wild card spots. However, both the Jets and Ravens controlled their own destines (win and get in), and each team did just that.

The NFL expanded its playoff field to include 12 teams beginning in the 1990 season. Heading into this season, there have been 110 teams from 1991 through 2008 to follow a playoff appearance with another one the very next season. That’s an average of 6.1 per season. Back in 1995, eight of 12 teams returned to the postseason from 1994, the most-ever from one year to the next. The fewest “repeaters” in any one season has been four, which happened just once (in 2003).

The 2009 playoff field includes six teams from last year and six teams that sat out last year’s postseason (nothing surprising about that). Interestingly, the top-three seeds from last year’s AFC field all failed to qualify for this year’s postseason (Titans, Steelers and Dolphins), while neither of the NFC’s top-two seeds from last year are playing this January, either (Giants and Panthers). Returning teams from last year are the Cards, Chargers, Colts, Eagles, Ravens and Vikings. New this year are the Bengals, Cowboys, Jets, Packers, Patriots and Saints.

The 2008 Pats (at 11-5) became just the fifth team to win double digits in a single year and not qualify for the playoffs since the NFL expanded its playoff format to include 12 teams. They became the first to win 11 games and not do so. The 1985 Broncos also failed to qualify for that year’s postseason despite an 11-5 record, but the playoff field that year consisted of 10, not 12 teams. No team with double digit wins failed to make the 2009 playoff field while two 9-7 teams got in (Jets and Ravens) and three were left out (Falcons, Steelers and Texans).

The Bengals went from 4-11-1 last year to 10-6 and winners of the AFC North in ‘09, the Packers from 6-10 to 11-5 (No. 5 seed) and the Saints from 8-8 to the winners of the NFC South (13-3), as well as claiming the conference’s No. 1 seed. However, the Saints are the first No. 1 seed to ever enter the postseason on a three-game losing streak. The Chargers, who got into last year’s postseason with a win in Week 17 and an 8-8 record, will take an 11-game winning streak into their game on January 17.

This year’s playoff field went a combined 133-59 (.692) which pretty much mirrors the last few seasons, as last year’s playoff teams were 130-61-1 (.680), the 2007 playoff field was 135-57 (.703) and the 2006 playoff field 129-63 (.672). This year’s 12 playoff teams were 106-82-4 ATS (56.4 percent) with 87 ‘overs’, 102 ‘unders’ and three ‘pushes’ (54.0 percent to the under). The Bengals are the lone playoff team with a losing ATS mark (7-9), while the Packers’ 11-4-1 ATS mark represents the best mark of any NFL team in 2009.

The NFL merger came back in 1970 and the term “wild card” was first introduced. The AFC and NFC each featured three divisions and beginning in that 1970 season the non-division winner with the best record from each conference were coined “wild card” entrants and completed an eight-team playoff field. For the record, the first wild card teams were the 10-4 Lions from the NFC and the 10-4 Dolphins from the AFC. The Lions lost at Dallas in 1970 by the infamous final of 5-0, while the Dolphins lost at Oakland (the West champs with just an 8-4-2 record), 21-14.

When the NFL expanded its schedule to 16 games in 1978, a second wild card team was added in each conference, expanding the playoff field from eight to 10. It remained that way until 1990 when a third wildcard team was added to each conference, upping the total number of postseason ‘players’ to 12. This change expanded the opening weekend of the postseason (”wildcard weekend”) from two to four games, as only the top-two division winners from each conference would get a “bye” in the first round, while the division winner with the worst record joined the three wildcard teams.

The NFL would expand to 32 teams in 2002 and reconfigure its division, going from six to eight. However, the wildcard round wasn’t fundamentally changed. The NFL cut the number of wildcard teams from three in each conference to two but with four divisions winners in each conference instead of three, the size of the playoff field remained at 12. Therefore, we have a fairly decent ‘history’ to work with, as the 12-team playoff field is entering its 20th postseason.

The Colts and Chargers are the AFC’s top-two seeds and the Saints and Vikings hold that distinction in the NFC. The four have earned the right to watch this weekend’s games and await the outcome of this weekend’s wild card games. After all the ‘dust’ had settled this past Sunday, we were left with a “one-of-kind” situation. Three of this weekend’s games feature “instant rematches” of Week 17 games.The 1993 and 2001 postseasons featured two rematches of regular season finales but this marks the first time a wildcard round has had three.

Adding even more intrigue to the situation is that all three of this weekend’s rematches were Week 17 blowouts! The Jets beat the Bengals 37-0 in the Meadowlands, the Cowboys shut out the Eagles 24-0 in Dallas and the Packers won 33-7 in Arizona over the Cards. While the venues haven’t changed for the Philly/Dallas or Green Bay/Arizona contests, the Bengals will get a chance to avenge last Sunday’s loss to the Jets back home in Cincinnati.

The playoff ‘history book’ reveals that there have been nine previous wild card games involving teams that had just met a week earlier to end the regular season, since 1990 (12-team field). The home team has gone 8-1 SU in those games but let’s note of those eight “home winners,” four had won the regular season finale while four others got ‘revenge’ by winning the wild card games after having lost the previous week. As for the lone “road winner,” it had lost on the road the previous week, as well.

Let’s not forget the fourth wild card matchup, as the Ravens visit Foxboro to take on the Patriots. While these teams did not play in Week 17, they did meet (at New England) in Week 4 with the Pats winning 27-21. All four home teams opened as favorites. The Bengals opened as 3 1/2-point favorites and as of Friday morning stood at minus-2 1/2 (total is 33 1/2). The Cowboys opened as a 1 1/2-point choice and are now minus-4 (total is 45). The Pats opened as four-point favorites and are now favored by three points (total is 43). The Cards opened as a 2 1/2-point choice and are now favored by just one-point (total is 47).

At least one favorite has lost SU in the wild card round in all but two seasons (2003 and 2006), since the 12-team playoff format was adopted in 1990 (19 years, including 76 games). A quick five-year recap shows that in 2004, three of four road underdogs won SU and in 2005, three road teams won SU again, although the Steelers were a small road favorite at Cincinnati. The 2006 season saw a change, as all four home favorites won (2-2 ATS). Home teams went 2-2 SU in 2007 and then last year, Baltimore and Philly won outright as road dogs. The Chargers won outright as a home dog and Arizona was left as the lone home favorite to win SU (also covered).

Home teams are 51-25 SU in the 76 wild card games since 1990, going 40-33-3 ATS (that’s 54.8 percent). There have been 32 overs and 43 unders (one push), meaning under bettors have cashed at a rate of 57.3 percent. The average score has been 27.7-15.3, a margin of 12.4 PPG. Note that 40 of the 76 games have been decided by more than 10 points (52.6 percent), including 29 (38.2 percent) by more than two TDs.

Good luck, Larry

Bowl Journal (Jan 4)

The current bowl season really ‘heated up’ this past weekend with five games apiece on Thursday (Dec 31), Friday (Jan 1) and Saturday (Jan 2), before yielding to the NFL’s final Sunday of the regular season. The 2009-10 bowl season concludes with a battle of unbeatens in the Fiesta Bowl (13-0 Boise St vs 12-0 TCU) on Monday, Iowa vs Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl, Troy vs Central Michigan in the highly-anticipated GMAC Bowl on Wednesday and then finally, the BCS championship game between No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Texas on Thursday from the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California on Thursday.

Let’s take a quick look back, before looking forward. Bowl favorites were 6-7 SU and ATS through 13 games (as of Dec 29) with six overs and seven unders, as under bettors had cashed in seven of eight games heading into Wednesday when a featured my last Bowl Journal. Favorites are now 14-16 SU but just 12-17-1 ATS (41.4 percent) through the bowl season’s first 30 games. Under bettors are hitting 56.7 percent with 17 of the 30 games staying under the total.

Monday night’s Fiesta Bowl features the second rematch of the current bowl season (AF/Hou was the first), as 13-0 Boise State takes on 12-0 TCU. I can’t believe either school is happy with this matchup, despite what they may say. How couldn’t each one of these “BCS Bowl busters” not want a shot at a name school from a BCS conference? The fact that the Broncos and Horned Frogs just met last year in the Poinsettia Bowl diminishes this bowl even more.

Here’s an idea. Let the final BCS standings determine the No. 1 vs No. 2 matchups for the championship game but then throw conference affiliations out for the remaining four BCS Bowls while instead creating the most interesting matchups. Wouldn’t this year’s BCS Bowl schedule have been more interesting with Ohio St taking on Cincinnati in a “Battle of Ohio,” TCU’s No. 1 defense taking on Tim Tebow and the Gators, Boise St meeting Ga Tech and Oregon taking on Iowa? Just a thought.

Getting back to the Fiesta Bowl. The Broncos come in as the winningest team in CFB this decade (111-17, .867) and return to the scene of the school’s biggest win ever, its 43-42 overtime win against Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl (2006 season), which could be good karma. Head coach Chris Petersen (48-4 in four years at Boise) just recently agreed to a five-year contract through 2014, so all systems are go for the Broncos.

However, that’s not to dismiss the Horned Frogs, who own the nation’s No. 1 defense (233.3 YPG) and have a better-balanced offense than last year, as QB Andy Dalton doubled his TD passes from 11 to 22 with just five INTs and his ability to throw downfield has greatly improved. TCU head coach Gary Patterson can’t match Peterson’s .923 winning percentage but his mark of 85-27 (.759) in nine years at Fort Worth is hardly chopped liver.

TCU (a two-loss team last season) edged then-unbeaten Boise St 17-16 in last year’s bowl meeting. TCU spent most of that contest in catch-up mode after falling behind 13-0. However, by game’s end, the Horned Frogs had outgained the Broncos 472-250 in yards, led 28-15 in FDs and controlled the ball for more than 36 minutes. Can Boise St avenge last year’s loss behind Kellen Moore? Boise’s QB has a TD-to-INT ratio of 39-3 while throwing for 3,325 yards and getting sacked just five times (QB rating of 167.4 is No. 1 in the nation). TCU is favored by 7 1/2 points and the total is 53 1/2.

The Orange Bowl is set for Tuesday night, as Iowa takes on Ga Tech. Iowa hardly looked like a contender for a BCS Bowl bid when it needed two blocked FG attempts on consecutive plays in its season opener to edge Northern Iowa 17-16. However, the Hawkeyes would win their first nine games before QB Ricky Stanzi went down with an ankle injury. The Hawkeyes dropped back-to-back games vs Northwestern and at Ohio State but closed the regular season with a 12-0 shutout of Minnesota.

The Hawkeyes got this bid over Penn St and they deserved it, having won 21-10 in Happy Valley this year. Kirk Ferentz has covered four of his last five bowl trips with Iowa and he brings a defense which allowed 286.7 YPG (122.0 rushing), while ranking 10th in scoring defense at 15.5 PPG. Let’s also not forget the rabid Hawkeye faithful, which travel to these postseason affairs as well as any school. Iowa’s offense is hardly explosive but the return to health of Stanzi and top RB Adam Robinson (775 YR / 4.6 YPC) is good news for Iowa fans.

One could do an entire article on Ga Tech head coach Paul Johnson, who first turned around Navy’s football program at the start of this decade and in two years in Atlanta has led the Yellow Jackets to a 20-6 (16-7 ATS) mark. In just his second season with the Yellow Jackets, Tech went 11-2 and beat Clemson 39-34 in the ACC championship game to give Yellow Jackets their first outright ACC title since 1990. Wanna talk pointspreads? Johnson-led teams are now 52-28 ATS in his last 80 games dating back to early 2003 and his days at Navy.

Many wondered whether Johnson could be successful with his option-attack in the “big time” but that question has been answered. His Yellow Jackets are 11th in total offense (442.7 YPG) and 11th in scoring (35.3 PPG), ranking second in rushing (307.2 YPG / 5.3 YPC) but just 116th in passing (140.8 YPG). Johnson’s first bowl game with Tech was a disaster (lost 38-3 to LSU last year in Atlanta) while Iowa’s only previous BCS appearance also was in the Orange Bowl in 2003 (2002 season), a 38-17 loss to USC. Ga Tech is favored by 4 1/2 or five points and the total is 50 1/2.

The final bowl game before the Alabama/Texas showdown is the GMAC Bowl, Troy vs Central Michigan. Central Michigan was the last MAC school to win a bowl game, a 31-14 Motor City Bowl win over Middle Tenn St back in 2006. The conference has lost 14 bowl games in a row since that time (1-12-1 ATS), with the Chippewas contributing two losses to the streak, back-to-back Motor City Bowl losses to Purdue (51-48) and Florida Atlantic (24-21).

While the MAC’s long bowl losing streak ‘hovers’ over this game, it’s really a terrific matchup of two superb QBs. Central Michigan’s four-year starter Dan LeFevour has thrown for 27 TDs and run for 14 to bring his career total to 147 TDs passing, rushing and receiving. He now owns the major college football mark for TDs accounted for, previously shared by Hawaii’s Colt Brennan and Texas Tech’s Graham Harrell. LeFevour’s completed 66.6 percent of his career passes for 12,510 yards with 101 TDs and just 35 INTs. He’s rushed for 2,936 yards and added 46 TDs.

Most people have heard of LeFevour but Troy’s Levi Brown has garnered little publicity. However, Brown entered his senior year off a junior season in which he fought for playing time, ending with 2,030 yards (61.7%), 15 TDs and just three INTs. How’d he do as a senior? Brown enters this game having completed 64.7 percent of his passes for 3,868 yards with 22 TDs and nine INTs. He ranks second in the nation in total offense (232.9 YPG) to only Houston’s Case Keenum. Central Michigan will take the school’s first-ever AP ranking (Chippewas are No. 25) into this game with the weight of an entire conference on its shoulders. CMU is favored by three points and the total is 63.

I’ll be back on Wednesday with a BCS championship game preview plus a look at the NFL wild card round.

Good luck, Larry

Bowl recap (Dec 30-Jan 2): The Humanitarian Bowl was a 43-42 shootout won by Idaho over Bowling Green, when the Vandals “went for two” after closing within one point with four seconds remaining. Bowling Green’s WR Freddie Barnes caught 17 pass (219 yards with three TDs), giving him 155 on the year, a new single-season record. The Holiday Bowl, known for its exciting games and wild finishes produced a yawner, as Nebraska beat Arizona 33-0, the first shutout in that bowl’s 32-year history and the first shutout by Nebraska in its 46-game bowl history.

New Year’s Eve day and night saw favorites go 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS with three of the five games going over (average game score was 50.2 PPG). Air Force routed Houston 47-20 , avenging last year’s bowl loss (also in the Armed Forces Bowl) to the Cougars, intercepting Case Keenum six times (the six INTs tied for the most by any QB in bowl play all-time!). The Falcons gained 563 yards (402 rushing), totals almost matched by Navy (Midshipmen had 515 total yards, including 385 on the ground), which beat Missouri 35-13 in the Texas Bowl and reached 10 wins for just the third time in school history (also in 1905 and 2004)

Oklahoma beat Stanford 31-27 in the Sun Bowl. The stat sheet said Oklahoma 477 yards and 28 FDs with Stanford gaining just 262 yards (13 FDs) but it was close throughout. Oklahoma WR Broyles had 13 catches and three TDs (both Oklahoma bowl records) while Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart had 135 YR and two TDs for the Cardinal (his 28 TDs are the most by any player this year and his 172 points are the seventh-most in a single season in FBS history)

I guess when 6-6 teams meet (Iowa St and Minnesota in the Insight Bowl), a 14-13 final shouldn’t come as a surprise. Iowa St came out on top to finish 7-6, which is pretty impressive considering the Cyclones lost their final 10 games of the 2008 season. Va Tech, led by freshman RB Williams (who broke Kevin Jones’ single-season rushing record with 1,655 yards), shut out Tennessee in the second half of the Chick Fil-A Bowl, earning 10 victories for the sixth straight year with a 37-14 win. Tech’s been to 17 straight bowl games but is a modest 8-9 SU in those contests.

New Year’s Day (and night) saw favorites go 2-3 SU and just 1-4 ATS. Northwestern opened New Year’s day play by losing its seventh straight bowl game (Wildcats lone bowl win came in the 1949 Rose Bowl, ‘48 season), despite QB Mike Kafka’s Outback Bowl record 532 yards passing (his 47 completions and 78 attempts set all-time bowl records). However, while Kafka threw four TDs, he also was intercepted five times!

Bobby Bowden ended his 44-year career by leading FSU to its 33rd straight winning season with a 33-21 Gator Bowl win over West Va. It marked FSU’s 28th straight bowl appearance and left Bowden with a 22-10-1 (.682) bowl record, the highest winning percentage of any coach with at least 20 bowl appearances. Bowden’s career mark sits at 389-129-4. The only coach with more wins is Penn State’s Joe Paterno, who got his 24th bowl win (most of all time) and 394th career win when his Nittany Lions beat LSU 19-17 in the Capital One Bowl.

PSU opened as a 2 1/2-point favorite in this game but a huge line ‘move’ came in on LSU starting Thursday night and by game time, the Tigers were favored by two points. LSU’s Les Miles entered this game 4-0 SU and ATS in bowl games since taking over the Tigers (had outscored opponents 157-44) but LSU was held to just nine FDs. A driving rainstorm turned the field into a mosh pit in some places and conditions were so bad for both offenses early on that the teams combined for 15 punts, which shattered the bowl record of 10 set by Miami, Ohio and Florida in the 1973 Tangerine Bowl.

Ohio St broke a three-game BCS Bowl losing streak (including losses in back-to-back title games) by beating Oregon 26-14 in the Rose Bowl. Terrelle Pryor passed for a career-high 262 yards (two TDs) and added 72 yards rushing while Oregon, which entered having averaged 44.4 PPG in its last 11 games as well as 37.7 PPG and 424.7 YPG on the season, was held to 12 FDs and a modest 260 yards. It was Ohio State’s first Rose Bowl win since 1997 (1996 season) and leaves Oregon winless in the Rose Bowl since a 14-0 win over Pennsylvania in 1917 (1916 season).

The Sugar Bowl was a tribute to Tim Tebow and if he had played anywhere near that level during the regular season, he might have won this year’s Heisman Trophy unanimously! Tebow threw for a career-high 482 yards and three TDs, ran for 51 yards with another score and Florida overwhelmed Cincinnati 51-24. He finished with 533 total yards, the most by any player in Bowl Championship Series history. The previous record was held by Vince Young who had 467 yards in the 2005 national championship game against USC.

Favorites were a combined 2-8 ATS Thursday and Friday but while Thursday’s games averaged 50.2 PPG with three of the five going over, Friday’s games averaged more points (56.2), but three of the five went under. Saturday saw favorites go 3-2 SU and ATS and the first four games go under (averaging on 30.5 PPG) before Texas Tech beat Michigan State 41-31 in the Alamo Bowl, the day’s lone over. Michigan State was the last of this bowl season’s 6-6 teams to play (eight in all) and as a group, they preformed well.

Iowa St and Minnesota played each other but the other six .500 teams went 4-2 SU and ATS. MSU actually led Texas Tech 31-27 but Tech got two late TDs for the win and cover. That game was somewhat overshadowed by the Mike Leach saga (no need to elaborate) but one must admire Tech’s effort in spite of the distractions. QB Taylor Potts threw for an Alamo bowl record 372 yards and two TDs before injuring his non-throwing hand, then Steven Sheffield came off the bench to complete 9-of-11 passes for 88 yards (one TD pass) and lead the Tech to two TDs and the win.

Mike Leavitt is the only head coach USF has had (13 seasons since joining Div I-A) and the Bulls have been dealing with a coach/player incident similar too but clearly not quite a serious as the Texas Tech situation. The Bulls dominated Northern Illinois 27-3, making it 14 straight bowl losses (1-12-1 ATS) by MAC schools. Another Big East school, U Conn, embarrassed South Carolina 20-7 in Papajohns.com Bowl, prompting Steve Spurrier to call it “a sad, sad effort.”

Ole Miss opened as the AP’s 8th-ranked team in the preseason and Oklahoma St was ranked 9th. Both schools had hoped to be playing in a more important game than the Cotton Bowl and it showed. Oklahoma St had seven TOs (QB Robinson had four INTs) and Ole Miss five (QB Snead had three INTs) and the game was tied seven-all late into the 4th quarter. Dexter McCluster ran for a Cotton Bowl record 184 yards with two TDs (the go-ahead one came with 4:03 left) and a fumble return for a TD less than a minute later gave Ole Miss a 21-7 win. McCluster was the game’s offensive MVP for the second year in a row and became the first player in SEC history with more than 1,000 rushing yards (1,170) and 500 receiving yards (520) in one season.

Arkansas won a bowl game for just the third time in its last 15 tries and East Carolina basically gave the Razorbacks the win. East Carolina’s senior PK Ben Hartman missed four FG attempts in all. He hit the left upright from 39 yards with 1:03 remaining in regulation with the score tied and missed from 39 yards again on the final play of the fourth quarter. He then missed from 35 yards in overtime. Alex Tejada’s 37-yard FG in OT gave Arkansas a 20-17, as the Razorbacks became only the second major college team this season to win without converting a third down (0-for-13). Colorado State went 0-for-8 on third down while beating Weber State 24-23 on September 12.