FREE Pick: OVER Orioles – Yes, John Danks has some impressive numbers this season but he’s still facing an Orioles team that has averaged over six runs per game this month. Before being held to just three runs apiece in the first two games of this series, the Orioles had exploded for seven runs on Sunday against the Yankees. Danks full season numbers are impressive but let’s not forget that he’s allowed 25 earned runs in his last 8 starts. That still equates to over three earned runs per start. Plus, once Danks is out of the game, the White Sox bullpen will take over and they have not been as solid recently as their full season numbers would indicate. As you can see, the Orioles should scratch their fair share of runs tonight but the real value with this over comes from the White Sox lineup. They are the leading home run hitting team in the majors and they’ve been scoring runs like crazy this month…including last night’s 8-run explosion! They will be facing Radhames Liz of the Orioles. The Baltimore right-hander has allowed 14 homers in less than 52 innings of work this season so, as you can see, this is not a favorable match-up for him. Liz doesn’t even average five innings per start and that will expose an Orioles bullpen that has continued to deteriorate recently! Liz has a 7.32 ERA this season and a 7.19 ERA in his career. He’s continuing to have problems with both walks and homers and that’s never a good combo. As a result, look for a slugfest to erupt at Camden Yards on Wednesday night!

Week 1 – Early Leans

 By Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

After cashing at a 64% clip last year, I’ve gotten off  to a great start this preseason. Entering Friday’s action, I’ve gone 8-1 with my sides. As Coca Cola used to say though, “you can’t beat the real thing.” Despite my preseason dominance, I yearn for the beginning of the regular season. Unable to contain myself any longer, I thought that I’d share a few of my early leans for Week 1. Keep in mind that these are only very early opinions and are subject to change, due to line moves and/or injuries . Also, I’ve intentionally left out the two BIG plays which I have had circled since the schedule was released. Still, it’s never too early to start thinking and talking about Week 1!

1) Washington Redskins @ New York Giants -3.5

You’d probably guess otherwise, but since the beginning of the Millennium, betting on the Super Bowl Champs ATS in the first game the following season has been like a broken bank machine! I knew they’d been a big winner but checked in with Ben Burns to get the actual numbers. According to Burns, one of the sharpest football minds anywhere and also one of my personal friends, defending Super Bowl Champions are 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS the past seven years, in Week 1 of the regular season. I learned the hard way as Ben and I had a friendly wager on last year’s opener between the Colts and the Saints. I had the Saints. The Colts won by about 50 points! Anyway, I digress…

If the Giants play anything like they did in their second pre-season tilt vs. the Browns (a 37-34 thriller, featuring a number of spectacular plays in which Manning looked ‘red hot’), not only should they cover their opener at home vs. the Redskins, but they’re setting themselves up for another deep run into the playoffs (despite losing Strahan and Shockey).

The Redskins may be 3-0 in the preseason, but they still have a number of questions to answer on both sides of the ball.

One bright spot has been the play of Hawaii QB Colt Brennan who has been instrumental in the Redskins success thus far; but head coach Jim Zorn has shot down any idea’s that the rookie will be starting any time soon: “I just don’t want to splash the water on him yet, you know what I mean?” Zorn said.

So the Redskins will stick with Jason Campbell who has looked very uncomfortable in Zorn’s new offense: “He still hesitated a couple of times,” Zorn said. “The rhythm was a little off, and I think he fought through it.”

On opening night, my early lean is for the Giants to win by at least a TD in front of the hometown crowd and the entire nation!

2) New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins +3

Brett Favre will underachieve in New York! If you read my article last week then you know how I feel the veteran QB and the Jets are going to do this season. That said, an opening game against last seasons worst team would seemingly be a golden opportunity for ‘Broadway Favre’ and New York to get off on the proverbial ‘right foot’. 

However, the Dolphins have a new head coach in Bill Parcell’s, and with newly acquired QB Chad Pennington (who would love nothing more than to stick it to the J-E-T-S), throwing to Tedd Ginn Jr. and handing off to Ronnie Brown, the Fish will no doubt get a few more notches in the win column this season.

Although there are a lot of new faces for the Dolphins, they should demonstrate immediate improvement in special teams, commit fewer penalties, and turn the ball over less. They should also be better at stopping the run and running the ball in 2008.

Both teams were horrible last year, and both are starting a lot of new personnel; but in my opinion Miami is perfectly set up to play the roll of spoiler as the home dog in Week 1. Opinion becomes stronger if line climbs to +3.5 or +4.

3) Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns +3.5

I have never been convinced that Tony Romo is everything he’s cracked up to be, and although on paper he has the better team surrounding him, I look for the Brown’s to give the public darling Cowboys a run for their money in Week 1.

Brady Quinn replaced Derek Anderson in the second quarter of the Browns’ loss to the Giants last week and performed well, leading Cleveland to a pair of touchdown drives that helped get them back in the game. Anderson suffered a concussion, and ready or not, Quinn has been thrust into the starters roll. In many ways Anderson and Quinn have similar styles of play, and I think Romeo Crennel can insert either into this offense and get the same result. Early lean to taking the points.

FREE Pick: OVER mariners – The A’s are well known for their weakness at the plate right now as they’ve been mired in a miserable slump. Also, the Mariners have gone cold after enjoying a pretty decent run at the plate! That said, why are we on the over here? It’s really quite simple! There are two key factors here. One is that this is a meaningless game between the two AL West “cellar dwellers” which means that there will be some relaxed sticks at the plate for both clubs tonight. Also, the pitching match-up dictates that there should be plenty of offensive opportunities for both teams this evening in Seattle. Note that Greg Smith of the A’s is just 5-12 this season and he’s allowed four earned runs or more in five of his last nine starts. In his last 8 starts he’s walked 27 while striking out just 21. The Mariners lineup also holds a couple of edges here because they have hit lefties well and they’ve also hit well at home in recent homestands. Look for more of the same tonight. The trouble for Seattle will be their own pitching situation as Ryan Rowland-Smith gets the start for the Mariners. He has mostly been used out of the bullpen this season and, recently, he’s been getting roughed up whether starting or coming out of the pen. Indeed, Rowland-Smith has struggled in six of his last seven outings and this includes a poor outing against the A’s. Watch the bats for these two floundering clubs come to life tonight. OVER in Seattle is the play Thursday night!

FREE Pick: RAYS – It’s certainly impressive what the Angels have managed to accomplish on the road this season. They are not only the only American League team to have a winning record on the road, they are still 14 games above .500 on the road despite losing each of the first two games in this series to the Rays. To put this amazing 39-25 record in perspective, they are one of only four MLB teams with a wining record away from home! The other three are all in the National League with the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and Philadelphia Phillies all above .500 away from home. Now that we said all that “good stuff” about the Angels let us all say this: They’ve now met their match! The Rays have the best home record out of all 30 MLB teams with a fantastic 47-17 mark on the season. Wednesday evening they also send one of Tropicana Field’s most dominating hurlers to the mound! Matt Garza is 6-2 at home this season with a 2.47 ERA and he’s holding opponents to a .225 batting average at Tampa Bay! Note that Garza has allowed 0 or 1 run in six of his last dozen starts. That is dominance and he’s facing an Angels team tonight that has been having trouble scoring runs! The Angels lineup has suddenly hit a brick wall as they’re averaging just three runs per game in their last five games. This won’t cut it against a Rays club that is averaging over 5.5 runs per game this month. Keep in mind Tampa Bay plays with a lot of confidence at home too and confidence is something Angels starter Jered Weaver could be lacking in tonight! The Los Angeles right-hander has averaged just five innings per start in his last five starts. Also, he’s given up 18 earned runs on 10 walks and 29 hits in these 25 innings. That works out to a 1.56 WHIP and those are hardly the numbers that Weaver is use to producing and his struggles will continue here. Weaver is jut 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in his career starts indoors and he’s likely to struggle against at Tropicana Field tonight as Tampa Bay stays red hot at home!

FREE Pick: OVER in Texas – The only reason this play did not make my “pay play” list today is because of a concern about weather. There are expecting quite a bit of rain in the Arlington area but I am hopeful they can get this game in and we should cash an easy over if they do! Kenny Rogers simply tries to do too much against his former team and this has “gotten in his head” and he’s “paid for it” in some of his recent starts against the Rangers. Look for him to get pummeled tonight by a Rangers team that has a strong tendency to knock the cover off of the ball at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. As for the Texas pitching situation, they send Scott Feldman to the mound. After a surprisingly successful start to the season, he has now slipped considerably with a number of subpar recent outings! We look for more of the same tonight and the bad news for Rangers fans is that they also possess one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Last night Dustin Nippert was an early exit but he was spelled by the just called up Kameron Loe. Surprisingly, the Rangers got an excellent outing from Loe but now he won’t be available tonight after throwing five innings last night. That means its back to the usual group of struggling Rangers hurlers that will be coming out of the pen for Texas tonight. The Tigers have displayed bullpen struggles of their own recently as they allowed thirty runs in their three game set against the Orioles! That’s ten runs per game and that’s a bad sign of things to come tonight if Rogers gets hammered like we expect him to! This one clearly has OVER written all “over” it! Good luck – Nick “BookieKiller” Parsons

Indianapolis Colts (+3) @ Atlanta @ 7:30 PM ET on Saturday August 16th – As we noted in last week’s write-up, the Colts suffered a loss in the Hall of Fame Game on Sunday, August 3rd. However, we expected that to give them an edge heading into the “true” Week 1 of the Preseason. Sure enough, although they lost in overtime to the Panthers, the Colts did get the cover in their “second” Week 1 game at Carolina on Saturday. With the Colts having an extra week this preseason, by virtue of playing in the Hall of Fame Game, they did not play their personnel versus the Redskins the way we felt they would last week against the Panthers and this week against the Falcons. Note that the Indianapolis loss was truly a “bad beat” for their backers in the Hall of Fame Game as they outgained Washington by 55 yards and they also had 24 first downs compared to just 20 for the Redskins. So, how did they lose by two touchdowns despite these solid numbers? It had a lot do with an interception run back for a touchdown late in the game. That was the key turnover in the game. However, it was also simply a case of “laying down” a bit too early. Up 16-9 in the third quarter and seemingly “in control” of at least the “spread victory” (Indianapolis was +4.5 in most shops), the Colts somehow saw things quickly become unraveled. Even though this was “just” a Preseason game it was still the type of effort that will have Coach Dungy’s troops a little hungrier this week. That’s because the Colts still ended up losing on Sunday at Carolina even though they got the cash. This means that Indianapolis is now 0-2 straight-up this preseason and they will look to get into the win column at Atlanta this week. Keep in mind that, in the Hall of Fame Game, Indianapolis saw Jim Sorgi complete 7 of 10 passes but he was an early exit from the game since the Colts were playing the first of five preseason games this year. Then, on Saturday against the Panthers, Sorgi completed 6 of 9 passes. Look for him to get in a little more work this week at Atlanta but note that Jared Lorenzen is coming off of a very big game for the Colts and that makes their QB rotation even more dangerous this week! The Colts have now let their games get away from them in EACH of the first two weeks so look for Indianapolis to “close the deal” with a win at Atlanta this week. Good luck from Nick “BookieKiller” Parsons and don’t miss my big TOP SIDE PLAY going in Week Two of the Preseason. My first BIG SIDE PLAY of the Preseason NFL was a BIG WINNER with SDG on Saturday and my picks were documented 64% last season. Don’t miss my next BIG WINNER of  2008, my first BOOKIEKILLER of the 2008 NFLX season goes Saturday! Also, my MLB is on a RED HOT tear heading into Saturday! 23-7 (77%) MLB run! Be there!

FREE Pick: Red Sox RUN LINE -1.5 runs -115 – The Rangers scored 17 runs last night and they still lost on the run line as the Red Sox scored 19 runs! That tells you how bad the current pitching situation is for the Rangers right now! Sending Luis Mendoza to the mound certainly won’t help matters for the struggling Rangers. Of course, we’re certainly not going to advise you to lay the 235 on the money line with the Red Sox here but we do see extremely good value with Boston on the run line as by laying the 1.5 runs we only have to lay about 115 in juice. This is a great value, especially considering the pitching match-up tonight! The Rangers Mendoza is 2-5 with an 8.78 in ten starts. He is coming off of another very poor effort at Baltimore on Friday. Also, he got absolutely hammered in his only career appearance against the Red Sox and that came in April. He certainly will be no match for Boston here! Mendoza faces a real challenge here because of being matched up with Jon Lester of the Red Sox. The Boston southpaw is coming off of a rare, sub-par effort but he is still an amazing 7-1 with a 2.95 ERA in his 12 starts since May 25th! Look for him to quiet the Texas sticks today while, at the same time, he should get a ton of run support as Boston “tees off” on Mendoza and a struggling and over-used Rangers bullpen that is one of the worst in all of baseball! Lay the 1.5 runs with the Red Sox for what should be a dominating win on Wednesday night!

FREE Pick – UNDER in Dodgers – The Dodgers are 8-3 in their last 11 home games but much of that has to do with their starting pitching and that’s why we’re riding the under here! Los Angeles has seen their starting pitchers go 7-2 with a 2.02 ERA in these 11 games. Derek Lowe gets the start for the Dodgers tonight. Although the right-hander is coming off of his worst start of the season, he previously had allowed just two earned runs in his last 14 innings at home. In fact, Lowe has a 1.24 ERA in his last four home starts. Overall, in 12 starts at Dodger Stadium this season, Lowe has a 2.72 ERA. Lowe also has fared well in his career appearances against the Phillies as he’s 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA in six games (four starts) against Philadelphia. Lowe won’t be the only pitcher enjoying success at Dodger Stadium tonight. Kyle Kendrick has recently been in fantastic form! Kendrick is coming off of a very strong start against Florida and, overall, he’s compiled a 1.45 ERA in his last three outings. Even though he has a 6.75 ERA against the Dodgers, that was accumulated in two starts last season and Kendrick is currently pitching the best baseball he’s pitched in his entire career. The Phillies offense has turned quiet since the calendar turned a page to August as they are averaging just three runs per game so far this month. As for the Dodgers hitting, they have scored four runs or less in 14 of their last 18 games! As for the bullpens in tonight’s game, you’re talking about two of the best pens in the game. UNDER!

NFC North: An Early Look

As we are now beyond the MLB All Star Break and into the month of August it means Football is HERE! Preseason NFL kicked off this past Sunday with the Hall of Fame game in Canton, Ohio. With that game completed and with the “real” Week One of the Preseason underway, it’s an ideal time to continue taking a look at the assessments for the NFL teams for the upcoming 2008 season. After covering each division of the AFC in my first four installments, last week it was time to shift gears and head to the NFC. In that segment we took at look at the NFC East and, in this segment, we’ll take a look at the NFC North!

Chicago Bears – The Bears had some problems in 2007 and those have persisted and will continue into 2008. They just don’t have enough talent at the skill positions on offense and defenses are making them pay for that. Chicago is now trying to rely on youth to rebuild the offense and that will take time. The other concerning issue for the Bears is that their once proud defense is “no more” as they suffered a major drop-off statistically from 2006 to 2007 and 2008 doesn’t appear as if it will be any easier for this team to get back to where it once was defensively. This definitely looks like a rebuilding year for Chicago and we may be able to find some value in fading them early this season!

Detroit Lions – This is another team going through a rebuilding year this season. After starting 6-2 last season, the Lions fell apart and a lot of problems had to do with contrasting styles favored by the coaching staff. The Lions will no longer have Mike Martz as he’s moved onto San Francisco. However, with his departure from the offensive coordinator spot it looks like another learning process will be underway for the Lions and they’ll have to get the proper personnel in place. They worked on that in the offseason but it’s going to take awhile for the group to gel and that is unlikely to happen this season!

Green Bay Packers – Finally the Brett Favre saga is behind the Packers and we were waiting to release this article until that fact was a “done deal”. With the Favre now wearing a different green uniform over in Jersey, the Packers can go about preparing for the 2008 season. Keep in mind that even without Favre, Green Bay has twenty returning starters and so they are positioned well for success this season and, at the QB position, it was indeed time for a change. The problem is that, though this change is good for the long-term, it could certainly make things a little tough in the short-term. QB Aaron Rodgers will have some growing pains and the Packer faithful could grow restless in what will be a trip back down after last season’s 13-3 mark!

Minnesota Vikings – QB is the key here. Will Tarvaris Jackson finally show that he’s ready? That is the key question. Note that the Vikings were #1 running the ball last season and #1 defending the run last season! However, until the QB position stabilizes this remains a mediocre club that has some holes. We like Coach Brad Childress and certainly the running game of Minnesota commands respect. However, the Vikings will continue to struggle until they get better defending the pass as well as improving their own offense. Their schedule looks quite tough this season, especially early on, and this could lead to continued struggles for Jackson in the offense as the tough schedule early on won’t help matters! It looks like the Vikings should win the division but it will be by virtue of winning a ‘battle of attrition’.

FREE Pick: GIANTS – As I noted in yesterday’s analysis, the Braves are a different team right now and with Jonathan Sanchez on the mound for the Giants, San Francisco can surely take advantage! Atlanta traded away Mark Texeira and Chipper Jones is on the disabled list. Tim Hudson is also now on the disabled list for the Braves and Atlanta’s win on Sunday was a rare one. Prior to defeating the Brewers 5-0 Sunday, Atlanta had lost seven of their last eight games! Mike Hampton gets the start for the Braves on Tuesday and he’s struggled badly in each of his first two starts since coming off of the disabled list. Note that the Braves are just 18-36 on the road this season after last night’s loss. Hampton has allowed ten earned runs on fifteen hits and six walks while striking out just one in nine innings of work in his first two starts for the Braves. With Sanchez on the mound for the Giants, it shouldn’t take many runs for the Giants to get the win Tuesday night. San Francisco’s lineup struggled on their recent road trip but they’ve been hitting better at home. At AT & T Park the Giants have averaged over four runs per game in their last 15 games and again, with Sanchez on the mound, it shouldn’t take many runs for the Giants to secure this victory! The Giants southpaw struggled in July but note that, prior to last month’s struggles, Sanchez was 6-1 with a 3.06 ERA in his eight prior outings. He’s capable of reproducing that success against a depleted Braves lineup that is lacking in confidence right now. As a result, this one will be all Giants!