Monday Night Preview

October 6^th, 2008-10-03

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

We were treated to another great Monday Night Football game last weekend as the Steelers came from behind to steal a victory from the Ravens 23-20, and with the Vikings on the road to take the on the Saints (-3) this week, one would think that we’re going to be in store for another high-scoring affair.

After falling 30-17 last week to the undefeated Tennessee Titans, the Minnesota Vikings (1-3) will stay on the road for the second consecutive week, playing their second Monday Night game of the 2008 season. The Vikes are 1-1 with veteran pivot Gus Frerotte in the drivers seat versus an 0-2 mark with season starter Tavaris Jackson.

This will be the first time the Vikings have played the Saints on Monday Night Football and features a 3rd-ranked New Orleans’ offense that is averaging 414.3 yards per game against a 6th-ranked Minnesota defense that’s allowed just 279.3 yards a game thus far.

The Saints are 2-2 and look to move above the .500 mark behind an offense that is averaging 87 yards a game rushing and 327.3 yards per game passing. Drew Brees is coming off being named the NFC Offensive Player of the Week and will look to have a solid game in front of the hometown crowd.

So what can we expect this week? Here are a few ATS stats to keep in mind before wagering on this contest:

The Vikings are just 1-3 ATS this season when the line is between +3 to -3, and over the last three years they are a dismal 4-10 ATS in this situation. Minnesota is 0-3 ATS this season as an underdog, but over the last three years are a perfect 3-0 ATS against NFC South division opponents.

The Saints are 2-0 ATS this season when playing the role of favorite, but are just 1-3 ATS over the last three seasons as a home favorite of 3 points or less.

Will Brees duplicate his performance of a week ago and will the Saints get over the hump?

Can Frerotte lead his team to victory and will Adrian Peterson have a monster ‘breakout’ game?

These questions and more will be answered on Monday October 6^th!

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons continues to live up to his nickname! He punished the books last Saturday with a PERFECT 5-0 in College Football. Overall, entering action on Friday, October 3rd, The BookieKiller has a 10-3 Football run going and he has NO plans of slowing down this week! Indeed, a HUGE weekend of Football is on tap! Be right HERE on a daily basis for more RED HOT WINNERS!

NFL Game #413 – Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ Philadelphia @ 4:15 PM ET on Sunday September 21^st – Those that were willing to stay up late on Monday night – and who wouldn’t have for one of the best match-ups on Monday night  Football this season? – witnessed the Eagles get into an amazing battle with the Cowboys down in Dallas. We feel strongly that the crazy, back and forth 41-37 loss is going to leave the Eagles “gasping for air” in this week’s game. It’s tough to go down to Dallas, play such a tough game and than have to come back on a short week to play a very physical Pittsburgh team. The Steelers have looked very good in their first two games and they battle hard with the Browns in Cleveland on Sunday night in what was truly a tough situation. They have got their running game going early this season and that is going to create problems for an Eagles team that has been known for it’s struggles against the run in recent seasons. Also, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has looked good early this season and he can take advantage of some of the same holes in the Eagles secondary and that QB Tony Romo and the Cowboys did on Monday night! Also, on the other side of the ball it is quite likely that the Eagles offense will struggle with a “bend but don’t break” defense of the Steelers that has allowed a total of just 23 points so far in their first two games of the season! The Eagles are coming off of a physical brawl with the Cowboys that’s going to make it very tough for them to come up with the physicality necessary to turn away a Steelers team that relies on their own aggression in the trenches as a strength! The Eagles did manage to win the next game after playing Dallas in each instance last season. However, this is the exception rather than the norm. In the prior two seasons the Eagles failed to cover all four games in the week after playing the Cowboys. It’s such a huge rivalry it just doesn’t leave Philly with much “left in the tank” and Pittsburgh is the play on Sunday afternoon!

Monday Night

Preview

By Nick “BookieKiller” Parsons

The second week of the NFL once again has two games on Monday night; the Ravens and Texans (rescheduled), and the always popular and overhyped matchup between the Cowboys (-7) and Eagles. I’ll be focusing on the latter.

Both teams won big in their openers, but the ‘Boys will be looking to win their final home opener at Texas Stadium (moving into their new $1 billion dollar facility next season), and will be looking to avoid a third consecutive home loss to the Eagles.

TO and Romo, however, have been held in check in Philadelphia’s last two visits to Dallas. Romo had a 32.6 QB rating in those games and Owens accounted for just four catches.

Dallas was held to a total of 136 rushing yards in those two losses, but ran for 167 last week against Cleveland. Marion Barber rushed for 80 yards and two TD’s on 16 attempts despite leaving in the third quarter with bruised ribs, though he is expected to play this week.

Keep in mind though that the Eagles run defense looked very good last week as it held three-time 1,000-yard rusher Steven Jackson to 40 yards on 14 attempts. Philadelphia was seventh in the league against the run last season, allowing an average of 95.8 yards per game, while Dallas ranked sixth at 94.6.

Coming off a season in which he was recovering from knee surgery and didn’t appear to hit his stride until late in the year, Donavan McNabb looked very healthy to open this season as he threw for 361 yards and three TD’s.

A few interesting ATS trends to keep in mind this Monday Night:

Over the last three seasons the Cowboys are 0-3 ATS on Monday Nights and 4-8 ATS vs. division opponents over the same time frame.

The Eagles have historically had a leg up on Dallas in ATS stats:

Over the last three years Philly is 4-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, they are also a perfect 3-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 7 points and an amazing 10-2 ATS the last three seasons as an underdog!

So it comes as no surprise to learn that 61% of the public’s money, according to a popular online consensus site, is currently on the Eagles from Philadelphia.

Put all the subplots on the back-burner; whoever comes out on top of this one is sure to leave their stamp as the favorite to win the NFC East. Good luck this weekend.

Nick followed up his Monday Night winner on the Packers by starting the week with an easy winner on North Carolina outright over Rutgers. Don’t miss any of his guaranteed winners this weekend!

Free Pick: WHITE SOX – The rain washed away yesterday’s game so we come right back with it here on Tuesday. The rain has now moved through so there should be no problem for the teams in getting in today’s game in beautiful early autumn weather! Under sunny afternoon skies, these teams will play Game One of a double-header starting at 2 PM ET and Vazquez and Burnett are slated to get the start. Javier Vazquez is fully capable of shutting down the Blue Jays and we also look for AJ Burnett of the Jays to get roughed up by a White Sox team that has flourished at home this season. Note that even though Toronto has won eight straight games they are still a team that is four games under .500 on the road. Also, they’re facing one of the top home teams in baseball today. The White Sox are a rock solid 25 games above .500 at US Cellular Field this season! Note that Vazquez is just 1-4 in his last five home starts but it hasn’t been his fault as he’s compiled a 3.55 ERA during this stretch of solid work. Today, Vazquez absolutely should get the run support and yet he may not need much of it! That’s because the ChiSox right-hander, despite a 2-2 mark, has a stellar 1.15 ERA in his last four starts against the Blue Jays. Toronto’s Burnett has decent numbers against the White Sox as he’s 1-2 with a 3.55 ERA against them in four career starts. However, he’s winless in his last three starts with a 4.15 ERA. Note that Burnett is just 6-7 on the road this season with a 4.13 ERA. The Blue Jays did win his most recent start, at home against the Twins, but previously he had allowed at least four earned runs in four of his last six starts. Keep in mind that, with Vazquez on the mound for Chicago, it’s not going to take much for the White Sox to get the win here! That’s why we’re laying the very small price here with the home team and, because of Burnett’s recent “slip-ups” of four earned runs or more, we’re expecting an easy win to result!

FREE Pick: OVER twins – This line is way too low considering these two bullpens and considering the very capable lineups of both of these clubs. The Twins bullpen has suddenly become a glaring weakness after being a strength for much of this season. Minnesota has allowed 21 runs in their last three games and these problems are unlikely to stop against a very potent Tigers lineup. Detroit was held to one run yesterday but they had previously scored 22 runs in their last three games! Francisco Liriano is a big name pitcher but he has struggled against the Tigers in his career and they’ve pounded left-handers for much of this season. As for the Tigers Armando Galarraga, he certainly has impressed often this season. However, he’s 0-3 in his career against Minnesota and they’ve hit him at a .291 clip. Also, the Tigers right-hander has given up 36 hits in his last 33.7 innings so he’s certainly not just dominating teams right now. Galarraga has also allowed six homers in those five starts (33.7 innings). The Detroit hurler has struggled against left-handed lumber and he will see plenty of that tonight against the Twins. As you can see, both teams should enjoy plenty of success at the plate this evening and that should send this game easily over the total.

FREE Pick: OVER Orioles – Yes, John Danks has some impressive numbers this season but he’s still facing an Orioles team that has averaged over six runs per game this month. Before being held to just three runs apiece in the first two games of this series, the Orioles had exploded for seven runs on Sunday against the Yankees. Danks full season numbers are impressive but let’s not forget that he’s allowed 25 earned runs in his last 8 starts. That still equates to over three earned runs per start. Plus, once Danks is out of the game, the White Sox bullpen will take over and they have not been as solid recently as their full season numbers would indicate. As you can see, the Orioles should scratch their fair share of runs tonight but the real value with this over comes from the White Sox lineup. They are the leading home run hitting team in the majors and they’ve been scoring runs like crazy this month…including last night’s 8-run explosion! They will be facing Radhames Liz of the Orioles. The Baltimore right-hander has allowed 14 homers in less than 52 innings of work this season so, as you can see, this is not a favorable match-up for him. Liz doesn’t even average five innings per start and that will expose an Orioles bullpen that has continued to deteriorate recently! Liz has a 7.32 ERA this season and a 7.19 ERA in his career. He’s continuing to have problems with both walks and homers and that’s never a good combo. As a result, look for a slugfest to erupt at Camden Yards on Wednesday night!

Week 1 – Early Leans

 By Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

After cashing at a 64% clip last year, I’ve gotten off  to a great start this preseason. Entering Friday’s action, I’ve gone 8-1 with my sides. As Coca Cola used to say though, “you can’t beat the real thing.” Despite my preseason dominance, I yearn for the beginning of the regular season. Unable to contain myself any longer, I thought that I’d share a few of my early leans for Week 1. Keep in mind that these are only very early opinions and are subject to change, due to line moves and/or injuries . Also, I’ve intentionally left out the two BIG plays which I have had circled since the schedule was released. Still, it’s never too early to start thinking and talking about Week 1!

1) Washington Redskins @ New York Giants -3.5

You’d probably guess otherwise, but since the beginning of the Millennium, betting on the Super Bowl Champs ATS in the first game the following season has been like a broken bank machine! I knew they’d been a big winner but checked in with Ben Burns to get the actual numbers. According to Burns, one of the sharpest football minds anywhere and also one of my personal friends, defending Super Bowl Champions are 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS the past seven years, in Week 1 of the regular season. I learned the hard way as Ben and I had a friendly wager on last year’s opener between the Colts and the Saints. I had the Saints. The Colts won by about 50 points! Anyway, I digress…

If the Giants play anything like they did in their second pre-season tilt vs. the Browns (a 37-34 thriller, featuring a number of spectacular plays in which Manning looked ‘red hot’), not only should they cover their opener at home vs. the Redskins, but they’re setting themselves up for another deep run into the playoffs (despite losing Strahan and Shockey).

The Redskins may be 3-0 in the preseason, but they still have a number of questions to answer on both sides of the ball.

One bright spot has been the play of Hawaii QB Colt Brennan who has been instrumental in the Redskins success thus far; but head coach Jim Zorn has shot down any idea’s that the rookie will be starting any time soon: “I just don’t want to splash the water on him yet, you know what I mean?” Zorn said.

So the Redskins will stick with Jason Campbell who has looked very uncomfortable in Zorn’s new offense: “He still hesitated a couple of times,” Zorn said. “The rhythm was a little off, and I think he fought through it.”

On opening night, my early lean is for the Giants to win by at least a TD in front of the hometown crowd and the entire nation!

2) New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins +3

Brett Favre will underachieve in New York! If you read my article last week then you know how I feel the veteran QB and the Jets are going to do this season. That said, an opening game against last seasons worst team would seemingly be a golden opportunity for ‘Broadway Favre’ and New York to get off on the proverbial ‘right foot’. 

However, the Dolphins have a new head coach in Bill Parcell’s, and with newly acquired QB Chad Pennington (who would love nothing more than to stick it to the J-E-T-S), throwing to Tedd Ginn Jr. and handing off to Ronnie Brown, the Fish will no doubt get a few more notches in the win column this season.

Although there are a lot of new faces for the Dolphins, they should demonstrate immediate improvement in special teams, commit fewer penalties, and turn the ball over less. They should also be better at stopping the run and running the ball in 2008.

Both teams were horrible last year, and both are starting a lot of new personnel; but in my opinion Miami is perfectly set up to play the roll of spoiler as the home dog in Week 1. Opinion becomes stronger if line climbs to +3.5 or +4.

3) Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns +3.5

I have never been convinced that Tony Romo is everything he’s cracked up to be, and although on paper he has the better team surrounding him, I look for the Brown’s to give the public darling Cowboys a run for their money in Week 1.

Brady Quinn replaced Derek Anderson in the second quarter of the Browns’ loss to the Giants last week and performed well, leading Cleveland to a pair of touchdown drives that helped get them back in the game. Anderson suffered a concussion, and ready or not, Quinn has been thrust into the starters roll. In many ways Anderson and Quinn have similar styles of play, and I think Romeo Crennel can insert either into this offense and get the same result. Early lean to taking the points.

FREE Pick: OVER mariners – The A’s are well known for their weakness at the plate right now as they’ve been mired in a miserable slump. Also, the Mariners have gone cold after enjoying a pretty decent run at the plate! That said, why are we on the over here? It’s really quite simple! There are two key factors here. One is that this is a meaningless game between the two AL West “cellar dwellers” which means that there will be some relaxed sticks at the plate for both clubs tonight. Also, the pitching match-up dictates that there should be plenty of offensive opportunities for both teams this evening in Seattle. Note that Greg Smith of the A’s is just 5-12 this season and he’s allowed four earned runs or more in five of his last nine starts. In his last 8 starts he’s walked 27 while striking out just 21. The Mariners lineup also holds a couple of edges here because they have hit lefties well and they’ve also hit well at home in recent homestands. Look for more of the same tonight. The trouble for Seattle will be their own pitching situation as Ryan Rowland-Smith gets the start for the Mariners. He has mostly been used out of the bullpen this season and, recently, he’s been getting roughed up whether starting or coming out of the pen. Indeed, Rowland-Smith has struggled in six of his last seven outings and this includes a poor outing against the A’s. Watch the bats for these two floundering clubs come to life tonight. OVER in Seattle is the play Thursday night!