FREE Pick: RAYS – It’s certainly impressive what the Angels have managed to accomplish on the road this season. They are not only the only American League team to have a winning record on the road, they are still 14 games above .500 on the road despite losing each of the first two games in this series to the Rays. To put this amazing 39-25 record in perspective, they are one of only four MLB teams with a wining record away from home! The other three are all in the National League with the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and Philadelphia Phillies all above .500 away from home. Now that we said all that “good stuff” about the Angels let us all say this: They’ve now met their match! The Rays have the best home record out of all 30 MLB teams with a fantastic 47-17 mark on the season. Wednesday evening they also send one of Tropicana Field’s most dominating hurlers to the mound! Matt Garza is 6-2 at home this season with a 2.47 ERA and he’s holding opponents to a .225 batting average at Tampa Bay! Note that Garza has allowed 0 or 1 run in six of his last dozen starts. That is dominance and he’s facing an Angels team tonight that has been having trouble scoring runs! The Angels lineup has suddenly hit a brick wall as they’re averaging just three runs per game in their last five games. This won’t cut it against a Rays club that is averaging over 5.5 runs per game this month. Keep in mind Tampa Bay plays with a lot of confidence at home too and confidence is something Angels starter Jered Weaver could be lacking in tonight! The Los Angeles right-hander has averaged just five innings per start in his last five starts. Also, he’s given up 18 earned runs on 10 walks and 29 hits in these 25 innings. That works out to a 1.56 WHIP and those are hardly the numbers that Weaver is use to producing and his struggles will continue here. Weaver is jut 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in his career starts indoors and he’s likely to struggle against at Tropicana Field tonight as Tampa Bay stays red hot at home!

FREE Pick: OVER in Texas – The only reason this play did not make my “pay play” list today is because of a concern about weather. There are expecting quite a bit of rain in the Arlington area but I am hopeful they can get this game in and we should cash an easy over if they do! Kenny Rogers simply tries to do too much against his former team and this has “gotten in his head” and he’s “paid for it” in some of his recent starts against the Rangers. Look for him to get pummeled tonight by a Rangers team that has a strong tendency to knock the cover off of the ball at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. As for the Texas pitching situation, they send Scott Feldman to the mound. After a surprisingly successful start to the season, he has now slipped considerably with a number of subpar recent outings! We look for more of the same tonight and the bad news for Rangers fans is that they also possess one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Last night Dustin Nippert was an early exit but he was spelled by the just called up Kameron Loe. Surprisingly, the Rangers got an excellent outing from Loe but now he won’t be available tonight after throwing five innings last night. That means its back to the usual group of struggling Rangers hurlers that will be coming out of the pen for Texas tonight. The Tigers have displayed bullpen struggles of their own recently as they allowed thirty runs in their three game set against the Orioles! That’s ten runs per game and that’s a bad sign of things to come tonight if Rogers gets hammered like we expect him to! This one clearly has OVER written all “over” it! Good luck – Nick “BookieKiller” Parsons

Indianapolis Colts (+3) @ Atlanta @ 7:30 PM ET on Saturday August 16th – As we noted in last week’s write-up, the Colts suffered a loss in the Hall of Fame Game on Sunday, August 3rd. However, we expected that to give them an edge heading into the “true” Week 1 of the Preseason. Sure enough, although they lost in overtime to the Panthers, the Colts did get the cover in their “second” Week 1 game at Carolina on Saturday. With the Colts having an extra week this preseason, by virtue of playing in the Hall of Fame Game, they did not play their personnel versus the Redskins the way we felt they would last week against the Panthers and this week against the Falcons. Note that the Indianapolis loss was truly a “bad beat” for their backers in the Hall of Fame Game as they outgained Washington by 55 yards and they also had 24 first downs compared to just 20 for the Redskins. So, how did they lose by two touchdowns despite these solid numbers? It had a lot do with an interception run back for a touchdown late in the game. That was the key turnover in the game. However, it was also simply a case of “laying down” a bit too early. Up 16-9 in the third quarter and seemingly “in control” of at least the “spread victory” (Indianapolis was +4.5 in most shops), the Colts somehow saw things quickly become unraveled. Even though this was “just” a Preseason game it was still the type of effort that will have Coach Dungy’s troops a little hungrier this week. That’s because the Colts still ended up losing on Sunday at Carolina even though they got the cash. This means that Indianapolis is now 0-2 straight-up this preseason and they will look to get into the win column at Atlanta this week. Keep in mind that, in the Hall of Fame Game, Indianapolis saw Jim Sorgi complete 7 of 10 passes but he was an early exit from the game since the Colts were playing the first of five preseason games this year. Then, on Saturday against the Panthers, Sorgi completed 6 of 9 passes. Look for him to get in a little more work this week at Atlanta but note that Jared Lorenzen is coming off of a very big game for the Colts and that makes their QB rotation even more dangerous this week! The Colts have now let their games get away from them in EACH of the first two weeks so look for Indianapolis to “close the deal” with a win at Atlanta this week. Good luck from Nick “BookieKiller” Parsons and don’t miss my big TOP SIDE PLAY going in Week Two of the Preseason. My first BIG SIDE PLAY of the Preseason NFL was a BIG WINNER with SDG on Saturday and my picks were documented 64% last season. Don’t miss my next BIG WINNER of  2008, my first BOOKIEKILLER of the 2008 NFLX season goes Saturday! Also, my MLB is on a RED HOT tear heading into Saturday! 23-7 (77%) MLB run! Be there!

FREE Pick: Red Sox RUN LINE -1.5 runs -115 – The Rangers scored 17 runs last night and they still lost on the run line as the Red Sox scored 19 runs! That tells you how bad the current pitching situation is for the Rangers right now! Sending Luis Mendoza to the mound certainly won’t help matters for the struggling Rangers. Of course, we’re certainly not going to advise you to lay the 235 on the money line with the Red Sox here but we do see extremely good value with Boston on the run line as by laying the 1.5 runs we only have to lay about 115 in juice. This is a great value, especially considering the pitching match-up tonight! The Rangers Mendoza is 2-5 with an 8.78 in ten starts. He is coming off of another very poor effort at Baltimore on Friday. Also, he got absolutely hammered in his only career appearance against the Red Sox and that came in April. He certainly will be no match for Boston here! Mendoza faces a real challenge here because of being matched up with Jon Lester of the Red Sox. The Boston southpaw is coming off of a rare, sub-par effort but he is still an amazing 7-1 with a 2.95 ERA in his 12 starts since May 25th! Look for him to quiet the Texas sticks today while, at the same time, he should get a ton of run support as Boston “tees off” on Mendoza and a struggling and over-used Rangers bullpen that is one of the worst in all of baseball! Lay the 1.5 runs with the Red Sox for what should be a dominating win on Wednesday night!

FREE Pick – UNDER in Dodgers – The Dodgers are 8-3 in their last 11 home games but much of that has to do with their starting pitching and that’s why we’re riding the under here! Los Angeles has seen their starting pitchers go 7-2 with a 2.02 ERA in these 11 games. Derek Lowe gets the start for the Dodgers tonight. Although the right-hander is coming off of his worst start of the season, he previously had allowed just two earned runs in his last 14 innings at home. In fact, Lowe has a 1.24 ERA in his last four home starts. Overall, in 12 starts at Dodger Stadium this season, Lowe has a 2.72 ERA. Lowe also has fared well in his career appearances against the Phillies as he’s 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA in six games (four starts) against Philadelphia. Lowe won’t be the only pitcher enjoying success at Dodger Stadium tonight. Kyle Kendrick has recently been in fantastic form! Kendrick is coming off of a very strong start against Florida and, overall, he’s compiled a 1.45 ERA in his last three outings. Even though he has a 6.75 ERA against the Dodgers, that was accumulated in two starts last season and Kendrick is currently pitching the best baseball he’s pitched in his entire career. The Phillies offense has turned quiet since the calendar turned a page to August as they are averaging just three runs per game so far this month. As for the Dodgers hitting, they have scored four runs or less in 14 of their last 18 games! As for the bullpens in tonight’s game, you’re talking about two of the best pens in the game. UNDER!

NFC North: An Early Look

As we are now beyond the MLB All Star Break and into the month of August it means Football is HERE! Preseason NFL kicked off this past Sunday with the Hall of Fame game in Canton, Ohio. With that game completed and with the “real” Week One of the Preseason underway, it’s an ideal time to continue taking a look at the assessments for the NFL teams for the upcoming 2008 season. After covering each division of the AFC in my first four installments, last week it was time to shift gears and head to the NFC. In that segment we took at look at the NFC East and, in this segment, we’ll take a look at the NFC North!

Chicago Bears – The Bears had some problems in 2007 and those have persisted and will continue into 2008. They just don’t have enough talent at the skill positions on offense and defenses are making them pay for that. Chicago is now trying to rely on youth to rebuild the offense and that will take time. The other concerning issue for the Bears is that their once proud defense is “no more” as they suffered a major drop-off statistically from 2006 to 2007 and 2008 doesn’t appear as if it will be any easier for this team to get back to where it once was defensively. This definitely looks like a rebuilding year for Chicago and we may be able to find some value in fading them early this season!

Detroit Lions – This is another team going through a rebuilding year this season. After starting 6-2 last season, the Lions fell apart and a lot of problems had to do with contrasting styles favored by the coaching staff. The Lions will no longer have Mike Martz as he’s moved onto San Francisco. However, with his departure from the offensive coordinator spot it looks like another learning process will be underway for the Lions and they’ll have to get the proper personnel in place. They worked on that in the offseason but it’s going to take awhile for the group to gel and that is unlikely to happen this season!

Green Bay Packers – Finally the Brett Favre saga is behind the Packers and we were waiting to release this article until that fact was a “done deal”. With the Favre now wearing a different green uniform over in Jersey, the Packers can go about preparing for the 2008 season. Keep in mind that even without Favre, Green Bay has twenty returning starters and so they are positioned well for success this season and, at the QB position, it was indeed time for a change. The problem is that, though this change is good for the long-term, it could certainly make things a little tough in the short-term. QB Aaron Rodgers will have some growing pains and the Packer faithful could grow restless in what will be a trip back down after last season’s 13-3 mark!

Minnesota Vikings – QB is the key here. Will Tarvaris Jackson finally show that he’s ready? That is the key question. Note that the Vikings were #1 running the ball last season and #1 defending the run last season! However, until the QB position stabilizes this remains a mediocre club that has some holes. We like Coach Brad Childress and certainly the running game of Minnesota commands respect. However, the Vikings will continue to struggle until they get better defending the pass as well as improving their own offense. Their schedule looks quite tough this season, especially early on, and this could lead to continued struggles for Jackson in the offense as the tough schedule early on won’t help matters! It looks like the Vikings should win the division but it will be by virtue of winning a ‘battle of attrition’.

FREE Pick: GIANTS – As I noted in yesterday’s analysis, the Braves are a different team right now and with Jonathan Sanchez on the mound for the Giants, San Francisco can surely take advantage! Atlanta traded away Mark Texeira and Chipper Jones is on the disabled list. Tim Hudson is also now on the disabled list for the Braves and Atlanta’s win on Sunday was a rare one. Prior to defeating the Brewers 5-0 Sunday, Atlanta had lost seven of their last eight games! Mike Hampton gets the start for the Braves on Tuesday and he’s struggled badly in each of his first two starts since coming off of the disabled list. Note that the Braves are just 18-36 on the road this season after last night’s loss. Hampton has allowed ten earned runs on fifteen hits and six walks while striking out just one in nine innings of work in his first two starts for the Braves. With Sanchez on the mound for the Giants, it shouldn’t take many runs for the Giants to get the win Tuesday night. San Francisco’s lineup struggled on their recent road trip but they’ve been hitting better at home. At AT & T Park the Giants have averaged over four runs per game in their last 15 games and again, with Sanchez on the mound, it shouldn’t take many runs for the Giants to secure this victory! The Giants southpaw struggled in July but note that, prior to last month’s struggles, Sanchez was 6-1 with a 3.06 ERA in his eight prior outings. He’s capable of reproducing that success against a depleted Braves lineup that is lacking in confidence right now. As a result, this one will be all Giants!

FREE Pick: CARDINALS – Todd Wellemeyer has allowed three earned runs or less in 14 of his 21 starts this season. Don’t be fooled by his 9.00 ERA against the Phillies in his career as he’s only made two starts against them in his career and note that Philadelphia has only hit .267 against him. Wellemeyer is a solid 8-4 this season and he is 6-3 under the lights. His counterpart tonight is Brett Myers of the Phillies. The Phils right-hander can not be trusted here. Yes, he’s looked a little better since coming back to the rotation but he did walk five in five innings against the Mets in his first start back. Then, in his second start back he only struck out two batters in seven innings even though he faced the punch-less Washington Nationals. Myers is 4-9 this season with a 5.46 ERA and he’s produced some of his worst starts on the road. Away from home this season, Myers is 1-6 with a 6.98 ERA and opponents are pummeling him at a .322 clip! Even though the right-hander is 3-2 in his career against St Louis, he has a 5.43 ERA versus the Cardinals and the Cards have hit .319 against him. This series has been a 1-1 split so far but the Phillies have only produced five total runs of offense. Unless the bats pick up (and that is unlikely against Wellemeyer) than Myers is not going to get much run support and that will spell doom for the Phillies here in the series finale and that is precisely what we’re predicting. The Cardinals are the play on Sunday night!

FREE Pick – UNDER Astros – Yesterday we used the under in this match-up as a guaranteed pick and it ended up being a push for most of you as the game ended with 9 runs scored. However, as noted in yesterday’s analysis: Heading into Monday, the Reds just wrapped up a three game series at home against the Rockies where they were swept and scored just three runs. After that miserable performance they certainly can’t be expected to go on the road and enjoy much success at Minute Maid Park against the Astros! Also, the Reds are facing an Astros club whose bats have not been making a lot of noise lately. Prior to scoring 11 runs in Sunday’s game and 5 runs in Monday’s game, the Astros had scored just 25 runs in their first eight games after the All Star Break. Indeed Tuesday’s game has all the makings of a pitchers duel as Brian Moehler of Houston and Bronson Arroyo of Cincinnati are squaring off. Moehler has ugly career numbers against the Reds but he hasn’t faced them yet this season and, simply put, he’s been a different pitcher this season then in past years! Also, the Astros right-hander is coming off of a very ugly start against the Pirates but, prior to this outing, he had allowed just one earned run in four of his prior six starts! He could be matched pitch for pitch tonight by Arroyo. The Reds right-hander has revenge on his mind after he was rocked by the Astros back in late April. Certainly, based on the way he’s been pitching lately, Arroyo has a great shot at shutting down Houston. The Reds hurler has thrown four quality starts in his last five outings. He’s won five straight starts and he’s given up just 27 hits in his last 32 innings of work. The teams combined for just 17 hits and only left 9 men on base last night so you can see there were not many missed opportunities. In other words, it’s not like either team was pounding the ball last night and we don’t expect that to change tonight either. UNDER!

FREE Pick – OVER Indians – This opened up as the highest total on the entire board for Monday and the big number was absolutely justified here. Even though Kenny Rogers of the Tigers and Paul Byrd of the Indians have each proven capable of putting together occasional solid starts there is a reason they have an average ERA of 4.88 between them. The fact is that each of these guys has been way too inconsistent this season and here we get some value by essentially (with the use of this over) going against both of them. Rogers just held Kansas City to one earned run and four hits in six solid innings in his last start. However, prior to this outing Rogers had allowed 19 earned runs on 43 hits in his last 32 innings of work. As you can see, the southpaw certainly hadn’t been faring too well in recent starts. Byrd of Cleveland has had similar issues. He allowed just one earned run in 5.3 innings against the Angels (but note the nine hits). Also, prior to this start, the Indians right-hander had given up 27 earned runs on 45 hits in his last 31.3 innings of work. Those are some really horrific numbers and neither one of these starters is likely to get much help from their bullpens tonight. The Tigers bullpen has both injury and performance issues while the Cleveland pen has been a disaster and they no longer have a ‘true’ closer. Add it all up and there are plenty of reasons to take the over in this one. It’s not as if you needed any more “ammo” for the over but note that the Tigers have averaged 7.5 runs per game in their ten games since the All Star Break. This one has slugfest written all “over” it!