2008 Surprise College FB ATS Teams


College football season kicks off this weekend. While all the attention is focused on teams like Florida, USC and defending champion LSU, sports bettors are more interested in teams that are going to cover the weekly number. Every year there are teams that rise and fall based on expectations.

A year ago in this column I had Georgia as a team to keep an eye on. The Bulldogs had a tough defense, plus they returned 13 of 26 starters off the 2006 Chick-fil-A Bowl Championship team, one that ended the season on a 3-0 SU/2-0-1 ATS run while topping Virginia Tech. Georgia indeed was a money-maker last fall at 8-4 ATS (2-0 SU/ATS as a dog).


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MLB Free Play! - Thursday 8/28


Play On: Florida w/Sanchez vs Morton

Note: The Marlins take on the Braves in the finale of their three-games series this evening when Anibel Sanchez faces Charlie Morton in Atlanta.  Aside from being in solid current form, Sanchez is 3-1 in his career team starts on Thursdays.  Meanwhile, Morton is 1-6 at home with an 8.18 ERA.  With that we'll back the better pitcher and the better team here tonight.


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Ross Benjamin Free Selection


Ross get the college football season started on Thursday night with a 10* total and a 10* underdog. Ross finished the 2007 college football season 8-3 (72%) and is 18-9 (67%) with his last 27 football selections overall.

Mr. Benjamin also cashed his highest rated 20* MLB Underdog Game of the Month on Wednesday night with Cleveland +155! He gets your day started on Thursday afternoon with a 10* winning side in the game between the Reds and Astros with the first pitch at 2:05 PM ET.


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Sun Belt Conference Part II


UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns

The Ragin Cajuns will have 16 returning starters from last year’s teams. RB Tyrell Fenroy will be the featured running back and quarterback Michael Desormeaux will be running the show. The team will be able to move the ball. The defense will have to tighten up against the run if they want to improve and compete against Troy and Atlantic Florida. The linebacker corps will be the best in the league. The schedule will be tough for the Cajuns. Playing out of conference games against Southern Miss, Illinois, and Kansas State will be hard to come out of with a winning record. In conference will be a different story but road wins against the favorites, Troy and FAU, will be necessary if they are to claim the conference title.


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Wednesday Update (free play for Saturday's CFB)


Las Vegas Insider set for Wednesday's MLB / CFB '08 opens Thursday!Larry earned a profit with his premium MLB selections in the just completed week of Aug 18-24. It was the 11th time in the past 16 weeks he had done so.

However, he's opened the new week, going 0-3 since Monday. He can't "get it all back" in one day, especially on a day like Wednesday, where 10 of the 15 games opened with one team favored by $1.70 or higher, including five instances of $2.00 (or higher) favorites.


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The Tribe Is On The Warpath


It may come as a surprise to the oddsmakers, but Cleveland has won nine straight games and 15 of its last 18. That's why it comes as a shock that Detroit is a prohibitive favorite on Wednesday. Yes, Justin Verlander hasn't alllowed an earned run in his last two starts. But he has lost 11 of 15 decisions against division foes this season and is 4-8 with a 6.51 ERA in his career against the Indians.

Fausto Carmona seems to have found his groove, yielding just two earned runs over his last 12 2/3 innings. Carmona is 14-2 after two or more consecutive wins and he's won five of six career decisions against the Tigers with a 2.81 ERA.


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Smart CFB- 2008 SEC Preview (West Division)


Alabama Crimson Tide (7-6, 4-4 in 2007, 5th place in SEC West)

 


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Nick Parsons FREE Pick for Wednesday MLB!


FREE Pick: OVER Orioles – Yes, John Danks has some impressive numbers this season but he’s still facing an Orioles team that has averaged over six runs per game this month. Before being held to just three runs apiece in the first two games of this series, the Orioles had exploded for seven runs on Sunday against the Yankees. Danks full season numbers are impressive but let’s not forget that he’s allowed 25 earned runs in his last 8 starts. That still equates to over three earned runs per start. Plus, once Danks is out of the game, the White Sox bullpen will take over and they have not been as solid recently as their full season numbers would indicate. As you can see, the Orioles should scratch their fair share of runs tonight but the real value with this over comes from the White Sox lineup. They are the leading home run hitting team in the majors and they’ve been scoring runs like crazy this month…including last night’s 8-run explosion! They will be facing Radhames Liz of the Orioles. The Baltimore right-hander has allowed 14 homers in less than 52 innings of work this season so, as you can see, this is not a favorable match-up for him. Liz doesn’t even average five innings per start and that will expose an Orioles bullpen that has continued to deteriorate recently! Liz has a 7.32 ERA this season and a 7.19 ERA in his career. He’s continuing to have problems with both walks and homers and that’s never a good combo. As a result, look for a slugfest to erupt at Camden Yards on Wednesday night!


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Bad Beats: MLB heartbreakers


Only three of this week's first 15 NFLX games were decided by three points or less vs. the pointspread. As a group, the Week 3 pointspread winners covered by an average margin of 13.8 points. With the average Week 3 spread being covered by two touchdowns, there weren't as many last second heartbreakers as usual.

Therefore, for this week's edition of "Bad Beats" we'll be looking at a pair of tough losses (for some) from Sunday's baseball slate. We'll be having much bigger football cards from here on out, so there should be plenty of gridiron action to talk about. Remember, if you'd like to see your bad beat stories featured in next week's column, email editorial@donbest.com and provide the details.


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QB EXPERIENCE & CFB RULE CHANGES


It's always been one of the most important factors for college football handicappers to consider in season openers. Now, with some last second rules changes that have been implemented, it's probably the key element we have to evaluate.

You've probably heard by now that college football has done some more tinkering with the clock. There will be 40 seconds between plays this season rather than a 25-second clock that starts once the ball is ready. And, out-of-bounds plays will now only temporarily stop the clock. There will be a restart once the ball is set for the next snap.


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Greg Daraban's SUNDAY AUG 24 FREE PLAY


965 Florida 66-64 at 966 Arizona 68-61

Nolasco vs Davis


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Gator Bait


GreyFox starts his SEC breakdown with the Florida Gators

Since Urban Meyer’s arrival, the Gators have compiled a 70-16 record, with a daunting 19-1 home mark. After an opening 8-3 regular season in ’05, Meyer took Ron Zook’s prize recruiting class to a National Title in ’06. Last season ended with a disappointing bowl loss to Michigan, but the Gators are bringing back a Heisman Trophy winner along with 15 potential starters from that squad, and seem to have a favorable schedule.


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2008 Big 12 Preview


2007 was a breakthrough year for the Big 12 Conference as four teams finished the season in the top 10, including Missouri and Kansas out of the North Division, two teams that came out of nowhere. This season, the conference has clearly emerged as the second best league in America as for the 2nd straight year, it will have as many as five teams finish in the Top 25, all of which will probably be in the Top 15.

Oklahoma is the consensus favorite to win the conference for a third straight year while Texas Tech is being heralded as the top sleeper team in the country. Over in the North, Missouri and Kansas have a combined 29 returning starters. We haven’t even mentioned Texas yet! After the Longhorns, there is a sizable dropoff, but the fact remains that this may be the deepest edition of the Big 12 in history.


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