It’s always been one of the most important factors for college football handicappers to consider in season openers. Now, with some last second rules changes that have been implemented, it’s probably the key element we have to evaluate.

You’ve probably heard by now that college football has done some more tinkering with the clock. There will be 40 seconds between plays this season rather than a 25-second clock that starts once the ball is ready. And, out-of-bounds plays will now only temporarily stop the clock. There will be a restart once the ball is set for the next snap.

It’s too early to say what the full ramifications of these changes will be. We’ve seen time and time again in the world of sports that things which seem little often have a big impact. Take a few inches off the pitching mound, add a smidge to the strike zone, kick off from the 30 instead of the 35, and a Pandora’s Box is opened that can be hard to shut. Time will tell if the changes announced last week will help or hurt the game. I’m very confident that they will temporarily reward experienced teams and punish newcomers.

Why is that?

Time management has become a very important part of the college game. The NFL has really been emphasizing this for several years now. The colleges usually catch up to what the pros are doing once they’ve seen it in action for awhile. Ohio State runs clock the way the Indianapolis Colts do. Many spread offenses try to mimic the most dangerous of the NFL passing games. Blitz schematics became much more complicated in the colleges about a half-dozen years after they started getting more complicated in the NFL.

Amidst this evolutionary cycle, we now have last second changes that will make it very easy to sit on leads, and much less easy to play from behind. Give an experienced quarterback a lead, and make an inexperienced guy play from behind, and you’ve got a comfortable victory that’s probably going to stay Under the posted total.

If two conservative coaches are meeting heads up with experienced signal callers on the field, you’re going to see an extremely fast game that could end in 2.5 hours tied at 16 points apiece. If two inexperienced coaches are meeting heads up, with new young quarterbacks, all heck is going to break loose. There’s no telling what might happen.

It’s very important to go through all the board teams and make note of quarterback quality and experience. The best veterans will have little trouble adjusting to the rules changes because they’re already in command of the offense and strategies. The greenest newcomers will be making several mistakes, calling time outs, and walking backward over and over again from repeated penalties. Yes, veterans always have an edge over rookies in the first week. These late summer changes will likely magnify those edges to an extreme degree in my view.

Some suggestions for the first couple of weekends:

*Look at veteran quarterbacks vs. rookies at any reasonable price.

*Look at Unders when conservative coaches with veteran quarterbacks match up.

*Look at Unders when conservative coaches with veteran quarterbacks are big favorites. They’ll be able to make the clock disappear in the fourth quarter.

*Look at Unders if there are any bad weather games. The combination of weather AND confusion about the clock will really limit a teams ability to drive the field quickly and efficiently.

*Think back to all the coaches you’ve ever yelled at for poor clock management in the past, and try to go against them at value prices. If they were mistake-prone under the old rules, they’re likely to be really panicky in this first week of the 2008 season.

*Think back to all the coaches who have impressed you with play calling or clock management in big games, and try to take them at value prices. The smartest coaches will have little trouble adjusting. Sorry to say it, but a significant number of college coaches just aren’t that great at on-the-fly thinking. Recruiters, teachers, leaders of men…fine. Chess players? It’s not a strength for many. Those who aren’t intimidated by change will thrive right out of the gate. The rest will be punting.

I have to say this is one of the most interesting opening weeks in my handicapping career. There were some intriguing matchups anyway. These last second rules changes make things a lot more interesting. That’s fine with me. I trust my ability to map out the ramifications much more than I trust the oddsmakers. They know the smart money already has some keys figured out.

Make sure YOU are the smart money!

NFL PRESEASON EVALUATIONS

   Preseason football offers various chances to see coaching staffs implementing new wrinkles on offense and defense. It’s all predicated on personnel, however, and one must need to approach these changes with a careful eye.

  For instance, six years ago Steve Spurrier brought his Fun-n-Gun offense to the NFL with the Washington Redskins. Spurrier put on a show his first preseason, with trick plays and a wide-open offensive assault. It was impressive, with his teams winning and going over the total often.

  However, that didn’t hold when the games were played for real. His offenses were largely anemic in the regular season, against first-string defenses and blitzing attacks. I think about this watching the Redskins under first-year coach Jim Zorn. Washington has been impressive on offense with his uptempo, West Coast attack.

  Zorn likes to keep defenses off balance with his play calling. In three games the offense has tallied 355 yards (156 rushing), 341 yards (155 rushing) and 359 yards (181 rushing), winning all three games. However, I see a bit of Spurrier in this, as well. The Redskins have had offensive line troubles and a lot of injuries.  In Saturday’s win over the Jets, running back Ladell Betts didn’t play much because of an injury while RB Clinton Portis was given the night off.

  The bulk of the yards were racked up by RBs Rock Cartwright and Marcus Mason. I can hear the collective echo of…”Who?” Cartwright is a 7-year veteran, so it’s unlikely the Redskins found a gem of a back everyone else has missed the previous six years. The point is, I like what Zorn is doing with his offense, but don’t make the “Spurrier mistake” of expecting this offense to be just as potent in the regular season, especially on the ground. After all, Washington was 20^th and 15^th in total offense the last two seasons under Al Saunders, a guy with an excellent reputation for running potent offenses.

  One thing I did like, though, was the way Zorn has thrown rookie QB Colt Brennan into the fire. Trailing 10-6, Washington took over on its 20-yard line with 2 minutes 4 seconds remaining. Brennan had entered in the third quarter in Washington’s first two preseason games but came in to start the fourth quarter Saturday. That’s because Zorn wanted to evaluate the rookie in a late-game situation with the team either in a hurry-up mode because it trailed or trying to manage the clock with a lead.

   The kid passed the test. On the drive’s first play, Brennan completed a 37-yard pass to wide receiver Billy McMullen. After a sack, the Redskins went to a no-huddle offense, and Brennan teamed with tight end Jason Goode on a 33-yard touchdown pass over the middle with 1:09 to play. That’s a significant part of preseason – testing the kids. Brennan might be a bit like Kurt Warner, an unknown who surprises in the pro game because of his quick thinking skills developed after playing in a hurry-up offense in college (or in Warner’s case, the Arena League).

  Speaking of evaluating styles of play, how about the Raiders/Titans game last week? Tennessee ran for 140 yards, Oakland ran for 224. Now this is a good example of what you could expect in the regular season – run first offenses.

  The Titans have been that way the last two years with young QB Vince Young and limited wideout talent. Last year Tennessee was 5^th in rushing, 27^th in passing. I wouldn’t expect that to change this season, especially with their RB depth (they took RB Chris Johnson in the first round). Oakland is turning the reigns over to second-year QB JaMarcus Russell and the kid has very little WR talent or speed to work with. You can’t run a wide-open, spread offense if you don’t have the personnel. 

   That’s a mistake the Jets made last season on both sides of the ball. Eric Mangini wants to run a 3-4 defense but hasn’t had the run stuffers up front to really make it work. And on offense, they haven’t had a QB that can throw deep, which is what they prefer under OC Brian Schottenheimer. They’ve felt opposing defenses have cheated, bringing defensive backs closer to the line of scrimmage and jamming the run. NY ranked 19^th in rushing and 25^th in passing in 2007.

  That’s why they jumped to dump Chad Pennington and bring in Brett Favre. Look for NY to spread the field and for Favre to throw deep (which he will do whether you ask him to or not), as the plan is to have a better running game because they believe there will be larger seams for the RBs. This is the plan, that is. I wonder about Favre’s arm strength at age 38, his propensity to throw into traffic, and the new-look NY offensive line.

   A team that has looked positively brutal on offense is the Chicago Bears, a team less than two years removed from being NFC Champs. This offensive line hasn’t look better (30^th in rushing last season): they had 51 yards rushing Saturday at Seattle. Chicago produced 82 yards, three first downs and no points in 23 plays with Rex Grossman. That was one week after the first team offense got 3 points in the first half against the Chiefs.

   “This will be my fifth year with this coaching staff. They’ve seen me for four years,” Grossman said. “I think they should know.” Unfortunately, Rex, we ALL know. What was it that former Bears WR Mushim Muhammad said? “Chicago is a place where wide receivers go to die.” Or as General McArthur would add, to “just fade away.” At this point, things don’t look much improved for the Chicago offense in 2008, so that defense had better return to its 2006 form.

   We’re less than two weeks away from opening kick of the college football season. I’ll return to the CFB grids with next week’s update getting us all set up for a great 2008 season.  

Last week I focused on a team (Air Force) that I felt was a bit overrated by the linesmakers heading into the 2008 college football season. I suggested a play on the Falcons to finish with less than seven total wins. This week, while many radio shows are jumping on the Texas Tech bandwagon, I feel the strongest “Over” play on the board is a play on the North Carolina Tar Heels.

The Heels finished last season with a 4-8 SU mark. The Over/Under wins prop this season is 6 1/2 wins. Obviously, to cash the Over ticket, UNC must finish with seven wins. While that total may seem high at first glance, consider the following:
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I’m taking the Air Force Falcons to finish UNDER their projected seven-win total. Last season’s squad truly over-achieved for then first year coach Troy Calhoun. Air Force finished the conference season with a 6-2 SU mark, going 9-4, overall. Looking closer at the 6-2 mark within the Mountain West Conference and you’ll see this team was out-gained on average by more than 10 yards per game. When a team finishes with a conference mark as good as 6-2, yet were out-gained, it normally means they were not as good as their record would indicate. In fact, the Falcons won four games that could have easily gone the other way over the final quarter of play. Air Force was basically a handful of plays from being 5-8, rather than 9-4.

This season will be a true test of Calhoun’s coaching prowess, and probably more importantly, his patience as a young coach. First of all, QB Shaun Carney is gone, leaving the Falcons with a group of signal callers who have COMBINED to throw a grand total of 12 collegiate passes! All of their top skill players have moved on due to graduation, leaving Air Force with new faces at quarterback, fullback, tailback, wide receiver and their “WRZ” position. The offensive line loses three starters from last year’s unit, including All-Mountain West Center Blaine Guenther.

Calhoun and defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter switched to a 3-4 alignment last season. That was a great move considering the talent they had at linebacker. But this season is a different story. The Falcons only return one starter (Hunter Altman) to the unit. Calhoun must replace the team’s top tackler and 2nd team all-conference linebacker Drew Fowler, along with 1st-team all-conference linebacker John Rabold, who finished last season with no less than 17 tackles for loss.

The losses in the secondary may be even tougher to replace. Air Force made great strides in pass defense, returning all but one starter to last year’s squad. This year, only one starter (SS - Chris Thomas) returns. The three players lost to graduation combined to make almost 90 starts between them in their playing careers. So much for the “academies are always replacing starters” theory.

The schedule does them no favors. Air Force “escaped” with a controversial win over Wyoming last season. This year, they have to travel to Laramie in week-two, with their young squad. The Falcons follow that roadie with a trip to Houston the following week, before returning home to face a very strong Utah team that will have revenge on their mind. AFA knocked off the Utes last season, but Utah played without several key starters, including QB Brian Johnson. They have their usual tilt with Navy in early October, followed by back-to-back road games within the conference. Included in that stretch will be a game at UNLV, who outgained the Falcons by 17 yards, yet lost 31-14, thanks to catastrophic mistakes in the final quarter. AFA plays at Army this season. They wrap up the season with BYU at home and a road game at TCU. The Cougars are thinking undefeated season, and the Horned Frogs are yet another team that will be out for revenge when they host the Falcons on 11/22.

It’s a tough slate for a team without much experience in several key positions. The Over/Under was set at seven wins. I’ll be surprised if Air Force finishes with more than five. In fact, a 4-8 season in Calhoun’s second at the helm is not out of the question. I’ll take a look at more futures as we inch closer to the season. Until next week…good betting!

The process of handicapping preseason NFL footall is not quite as simple as it used to be. Just a few short seasons ago, you’d get almost all you needed from reading a coach’s plan in the local newspaper. But if you’ve been watching most of the games over the past couple of seasons, you’ve seen the following:

*The top priority for all teams is to avoid injuries! Star players aren’t on the field nearly as often as they used to be, and the plays that are run have a low risk for serious contact.

*The second top priority is to get the timing down between quarterbacks and receivers. They do this all the time in practice anyway. The coaches want to see that it’s working at game speed as well. Once they see that, the passing game basically disappears. Teams don’t want their receivers or quarterbacks exposed to big hits.

*The third priority is running the clock. This fits with avoiding injuries. The fewer number of plays, the fewer chances for injury. But even with the backups now, you see offenses focused on moving the chains and running the clock rather than storming their way into the end zone. In a sense, ball control offense has become a style of defense, and teams are practicing their defense.

Folks, this isn’t even football as we know it any more! It’s as if there’s a gentleman’s agreement NOT to play football in the exhibition season. The players agree to it because they don’t want to get hurt. Coaches agree to it because they’re conservative to begin with. I don’t think the average fan has truly noticed it yet. They’re just so excited to watch games again that they don’t realize what’s really going on.

Well, I noticed what’s going on! And it greatly affected my handicapping approach.

*I focus on Unders in the first week of the season, including the HOF game because the games have gotten so low scoring. There are certain coaches that are just automatic Unders early in the preseason unless there are defensive touchdowns or the refs keep handing away free pass interference penalties. These coaches are particularly strong on Unders in the second halves of games because they just want to get things over with and go home. If you can play halftime lines, look to take advantage this year. In general, there have been 21 Unders and just 10 Overs over the last two preseasons during HOF/Week-One action. Overs tend to catch up over the following couple of weeks.

*I focus on the handful of coaches who have established that scoreboard results still matter to them. These guys will usually cover three of their four games. A 2-2 ATS record is a worst-case scenario. So, backing them means you’re risking the vigorish in a split record to make some good money. You have to look at the month as a four-game hunk with these teams. Don’t try to cherry-pick the wins. Let the tendency play out however it’s going to play out, and count up the profit at the end of the month.

*I focus on the quality of the third-team quarterback. Winners in August typically come down to this level of quarterback. In the past, it was the #2 guy that you focused on. The starters would get their timing down, then the backups would come in and determine who won the game. Now, the starters get their timing down, the #2 guy works on running the clock, and it’s up to the #3 guy to win the game. I can tell you some local bettors took a bath last year when #2 guys that they loved to bet on were kept on a tight leash by their coaches. If you can find a handful of #3 guys who like to go for the glory, they’ll take you to the winner’s circle.

*I allow myself the luxury of passing many of the games. This is the toughest thing for the general public to do, but the easiest thing for professional wagerers to do. In past years, there were really a lot of edges to exploit in preseason games. It wouldn’t be surprising for me to have more team side action in a preseason weekend than a regular season weekend in the NFL. Lately, it’s been about finding the few games each weekend where either a head coach or a third string quarterback is going to sway the equation my way.

As a handicapper, my percentage hasn’t changed at all. You take what they give you. If this preseason mirrors the last few, you’re going to make money looking for Unders early on, particularly if you can play halftime lines in front of dead second halves.

It won’t be fun to watch unless you’re a timekeeper with a plane to catch. But preseason football will always be profitable for handicappers who can stay at least one step ahead of the oddsmakers!

Last week I showed you that first place teams at the All-Star Break in major league baseball often turn out to be money losers in the second half of the season. They can’t maintain the pace of the first half, but the market prices them very high because of their full season record.

This week, I want to turn things around and outline strategies for finding teams who WILL offer value from now through the end of September. What are the main characteristics of the “super surgers” who close the season very strong?

*PITCHING DEPTH

You just can’t string together victories unless you have quality deep in your starting rotation. Some teams are top heavy, with one or two great starters followed by mediocrity or worse. A team that “surges” will win two thirds or three fourths of its games over a sustained period. That doesn’t happen by going win-win-cross your fingers-loss-loss. Too many fans and wagerers look for teams to get hot who just don’t have the right kind of talent distribution. Believe it or not, a team that’s “pretty good” in all five spots (or at least four of the five) is better positioned for a long winning surge.

I should also mention that bullpen quality is crucial too. Surging teams typically have a set-up man and ace reliever they can rely on down the stretch. The New York Yankees and Mariano Rivera have had some great second halves for example.

To me, this is the number one qualifier. Remember, I’m not talking about high end pitching. DEPTH is what matters here.

*CONSISTENT OFFENSE

It’s easy to fall in love with slugging offenses that occasionally post huge numbers. They look like superstars in those games where they happen to run into a struggling pitcher, or weather conditions that favor home runs. This type of team isn’t consistent though. They alternate poor games with huge games. This creates a great average, but a won-loss record that treads water. Think back to the San Francisco Giants in Barry Bonds best seasons. They had the most dominant hitter of the era, yet typically weren’t in the playoff mix.

You want teams who get people on base and bring them around to score. That’s why on-base percentage is my favorite offensive stat. There’s a strong correlation to winning. Look for offenses that are going to post 4-5 runs most every time they take the field. Combine that with pitching depth, and the pieces are in place for a winning surge.

*HEALTH

You often hear announcers talk about teams suffering bad luck with injuries. I’ve found that many ideal super-surge teams are those who were injured earlier in the year, but are now healthy. The players have a sense of urgency because they’re making up for lost time. The betting markets are still pricing the team based on those earlier performances. This is a great combination for the sharp wagerer. Look for teams who used to be shorthanded but aren’t any more.

*CHEMISTRY

This is one of the hardest things in sports to quantify. You know it when you see it with your own eyes. It can be hard to find in the raw numbers. Well, you probably watch a lot of games. Look for chemistry with your own eyes! Look for enthusiastic teams who are playing like every game matters. Look for teamwork in the field, particularly in the area of turning double plays. Look for offenses that work together rather than sitting around waiting for home runs (this typically goes hand in hand with the consistency issue I mentioned earlier). Surging teams always have a great spirit about them. That spirit is evident very early in the surge.

*AN “US AGAINST THE WORLD” MENTALITY

I’ve found that many surging teams are held together by a sense that they’re not getting enough respect. I think this is part of what slows down some first place teams. They do get respect because they’re in first place, so they lose a step while stopping to smell the roses. Read postgame quotes from newspaper accounts, and watch interviews on TV. If you hear the players talking about wanting to prove a point, or being tired of hearing how great another team is, you may be onto something very good. This is a great edge to look for in all sports, particularly with underdogs.

I’ve got a few teams under the microscope for the second half of the 2008 season. I’m not going to mention them here because I plan on profiting from them for the next several weeks. I’m confident that serious handicappers will be able to use the guidelines I posted today to make a quality list of their own. Some handicapping approaches help you find a winner that day. Others help you find weeks, or even months of winners. You owe it to yourself to be on the lookout for second half explosions in both the American and National Leagues. The reward is substantial!

We’ve reached the week in Major League Baseball where you hear ranting and raving about All-Star selections. It’s all over newspaper columns, sports call-in shows, sports bar discussions, and of course, in Las Vegas sportsbooks.

The discussions invariably revolve around “snubbed” players who had great stats in the first half of the season, but didn’t quite make the team. The most vitriol is aimed at established stars who made the team despite having ordinary seasons by their standards. This has happened for as long as I can remember. Many of you who were baseball fans as kids were probably arguing with your buddies about the All-Star teams of the time. 

The heart of these discussions actually shed a lot of light on why bettors lose money in baseball and other sports. They typically overrate recent form, and underrate established quality.

Imagine for a second that you’re building a team from scratch. You want to build a champion that has the best chance to win tomorrow, and in the second half of the season.

*Are you going to take a guy hitting .320 in the first half of the season whose career average is closer to .265?

*Or are you going to take an established star from the past two seasons why may only be hitting .290 or so this year?

If you’re smart, you’ll take the established talent. He’s likely to return his normal level in the foreseeable future. If you’re not, you’ll take the relative nobody who’s playing way over his head for a few months.

I’ve always been amazed how often media pundits throw tantrums because some mediocrity on a hot streak isn’t getting recognition. Fans do the same thing if that guy plays on their local team. They don’t understand the role randomness plays over a few months of baseball. They don’t understand that statistics can be very misleading over the short term. Apparently, they believe a guy who’s always been 15^th or 20^th best at his position is now among the elite, because he’s put up some good numbers over 80 games. A year later, they don’t notice that the player has returned to his normal form because they’ve become obsessed with a new hot player at a different position.

Many casual sports gamblers do this all the time. Well, ALL gamblers do this much of the time, including sports bettors! Partiers at the craps tables believe in hot runs and cold runs. Tourists at the blackjack tables adjust their bet sizes based on whether they’re “running” hot and cold. Baseball bettors make this kind of mistake in two different areas:

*Baseball bettors will invest in pitchers or teams who are playing over their heads, rather than betting that they will return to normal form.

*Baseball bettors will adjust their own betting patterns after misjudging their own abilities. Not only do they misread athletic performance, they misread their own betting performance.

When waiting to place a bet at a Vegas sportsbook, I’ve often overheard other gamblers talking about their reasons for a pick. They’ll say stuff like:

*These guys are swinging the bats well.

*This pitcher has a great ERA his last two starts.

*This team has won three in a row

It doesn’t matter if the batters just got to face bad pitching in a great hitter’s park. It doesn’t matter if the pitcher got to face anemic offenses in a great pitcher’s park. It doesn’t matter if the team just swept the worst team in baseball. They’re all “hot,” and gamblers love to bet on hot.

And, if the bettor himself is on a good run, he’ll overbet his bankroll significantly on the assumption that his amazing percentage is going to continue. He’ll go 4-1 on small bets one day, but then go 1-4 on big bets the next and get crushed. His “hot” teams or pitchers regressed to the mean, and his “hot” betting disappeared too. He went 50/50 but lost BIG!

If you’re trying to handicap a baseball game, or really any sporting event, multi-season, long-term performance will give you the best sense of expectations. A pitcher coming off a few good starts hasn’t turned into Cy Young. A hitter with a few home runs the past few days isn’t Willie Mays. A team that’s been beating up on losers during a soft spot in the schedule isn’t the ‘27 Yankees. You need to handicap based on the reality of the athletes, not on short term illusions.

Think about that this week if you become a part of any All-Star discussions regarding snubbed players. Check to see if the debate is really “established star vs. mediocrity playing over his head.” See if your own baseball selections are a bit too heavily weighted toward short term stats rather than confirmed characteristics. Are you backing quality? Or, are you just trying to ride hot hands?

Professional gamblers bet on quality…whether it’s on sports bets, while playing No-Limit Texas Hold-em, or sitting at a blackjack table when the count is favorable. Be sure you’re applying the pro mindset to your baseball bets this week.

Now that Interleague play is over, handicappers will have to avoid the temptation to think that the whole National League stinks!

Compared to the American League, they are clearly inferior. Hopefully you had a chance to take advantage of that through the month of June. Now that order will be restored in the schedules, you have to make sure your judgment isn’t clouded.

* The best teams in the National League are still the best teams! Many contenders posted losing records against the AL. They’re not playing those guys any more, so it doesn’t matter. Look for spots to take superior teams at affordable prices.

* The best pitchers in the National League are still the best pitchers! Some will have ugly stats that will suggest poor recent form. That can happen when you step up in class, particularly if you’re throwing road games against a Designated Hitter in hitters’ parks. The top NL hurlers will be stepping back down in class from this point forward. You can trust them to go back to getting people out.

This happened to many handicappers two years ago, the last time the AL was THIS dominant over the NL in Interleague play. Most smart wagerers try to find quality when making their bets. When a whole league seems to be performing badly, you just don’t see quality.

Suddenly all of your bets are in the American League. The AL dogs look “live” because many are on perceived hot streaks after an easy schedule stretch. Many AL pitchers look like gods because their recent stats are so impressive. You can’t bring yourself to pull the trigger on an NL team because they all seem to be in slumps.

Here’s my advice. Erase June from the equation and go back to how you had teams rated before IL play started. I wrote an article several weeks ago talking about how bad the NL West is. It’s still bad! But NL East entry Philadelphia isn’t bad just because they had a tough stretch against the AL. The Chicago Cubs aren’t bad even though they got swept at Tampa Bay and at U.S. Cellular.

NL CONTENDERS
Chicago Cubs
St. Louis
Milwaukee (on a good run in recent weeks)
Philadelphia
Florida

NL QUESTION MARKS
NY Mets
Atlanta
Arizona (though I’m tempted to put them in the “struggler” category)

NL STRUGGLERS
Washington
Pittsburgh
Houston
Cincinnati
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco
Colorado
San Diego

You can see why IL play was such a disaster! This league had several struggling teams even before running into the superior league.

My point is: Philadelphia is 12 games over .500 against NL opposition. The fact that they had a worse record against the AL than some other teams doesn’t mean they’ve turned into the Washington Nationals. St. Louis had a losing record against the AL. Albert Pujols should be fresh after his return from injury. The Cards could very well post a great record these next few weeks.

Some good NL teams are about to take the field with a massive chip on their shoulder! You can’t be passing their games if the prices are affordable.

If you just follow your instincts, you’ll be avoiding teams you should be betting because “they aren’t swinging the bats well” or “this pitcher lost his rhythm.” Don’t fall into that trap.

Let’s use a college football analogy for a second. It would be helpful if you thought of the American League as one of the “major” BCS conferences. The National League doesn’t measure up any more. It’s a “mid major” like the WAC or the Sun Belt. If the best team in the Sun Belt lost badly to an ACC or SEC team, you’d still take them at an affordable price when they’re back in league play. You’ve seen enough of those situations now to know that you just have to throw out the blowout loss to the power team. It’s second nature in college football.

It’s not second nature in baseball because it’s hard to imagine that one league can be this much better than another. It’s true though. This is the fourth straight season the AL has spanked the NL in IL play. We really do have a major/mid major parallel. Apply your football fundamentals to this new baseball phenomenon.

I anticipate many great wagering opportunities this week because the wagering public won’t have the right mindset. They’ll be avoiding teams who are about to catch fire. They’ll be avoiding pitchers who will be happy they don’t have to face AL sluggers any more. Be sure you step in to take advantage!

We’ve just had three managerial changes in Major League Baseball in recent days. That made this the IDEAL time to talk about handicapping games right after changes in leadership.

As a general rule, you should expect a team to improve after firing its manager:

* The players may have stopped listening to the former manager, and will play enthusiastically for the new guy.

* Whenever the ax starts falling, people start worrying about their own jobs. Of course, players are guaranteed their money, but they don’t want to be benched because of bad performance. Many players who had been “slumping” suddenly develop a new sense of urgency about their contributions.

* New managers aren’t afraid to make changes that help the team. There’s no loyalty to guys for what they may have done in past seasons. If you’re not producing now, the new manager will replace you with somebody who’s going to produce. So, whether an underachiever fixes his own problems, or gets benched, improvement comes from that spot in the lineup.

* Sometimes teams go through bad spells because of rotten luck. When that regresses to the mean, they start winning again. That would have happened even without the managerial change. You’ll find that many mid-season changes come when teams were losing more often than they should have because of some bad luck. The new manager benefits from the changes in fortune.

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