We’re deep enough into the season now that handicappers have to be very careful evaluating won-lost records.

Early on, you pretty much remember who everyone played while going 4-0 or 3-2 in the early weeks of the season Now that we’ve reached the midpoint, it’s easy to lose track of all the details. You might give too much credit to a team with a great record when all they did was outscore a bunch of inferior opponents. You might write somebody off who had the misfortune of dealing with a gauntlet of tough challenges.

That’s why I always make it a point to check in on strength of schedule evaluations at this stage in the season. What you learn will help you avoid making a big mistake or two in key games and will help find “surprise” squads who seem to catch fire when all that’s happened is that the schedule softened up.

There are a variety of places that rank strengths of schedules in cyberspace. Most reports agree in general, but might disagree in tiny specifics. One place will say a team played the 4^th tough schedule while another says it was 9^th toughest. One place will say a team had the easiest schedule of everyone while another calculation says it was just 26^th. The exact rankings don’t really matter much. You just want to know who’s played a tough schedule, and who’s played an easy schedule.

Here are the teams so far that there seems to be clear agreement regarding playing easy schedules: Indianapolis, Dallas, Philadelphia, Green Bay, the Giants, Houston, Carolina, Jacksonville, and Washington.

I wouldn’t be surprised if a few of the teams listed that are way up in the standings start to “cool off” just a little bit. You can’t keep playing almost nothing but bad teams all year long! I’m confident in saying that group as a whole will underachieve against the spread over the next month. Won-lost standings strongly influence Las Vegas pointspreads because the general public bets on records rather than true power ratings.

What’s really amazing in this particular season is that we have a couple of teams with poor results even though they had it easy! Imagine how ugly things would have gotten in Washington if they didn’t have so many games against cellar dwellers. Jacksonville might be bending over backward to get their head coach fired given how poorly they’ve performed vs. a weak schedule.

Now, I’m not saying you should blindly bet against everyone listed in that group. Look for spots where those teams are clearly “mis-priced” because the betting markets haven’t properly adjusted for the issue. Maybe lines will adjust for Indianapolis but not for Green Bay. It’s our job to learn as much as we can, then read and react as events unfold.

Here are the teams where there’s agreement they played difficult schedules: Denver, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Miami, the Jets, Cleveland, Oakland, and Tennessee. There are a few teams there who have very strong records even with the tough schedules! That could be a good hidden indicator come playoff time. As bad as Cleveland and Oakland have looked most weeks, they haven’t caught many breaks in the schedule.

I’m confident this group as a whole will perform better than expectations over the next month. These teams should be getting more respect than they are given what I’ve learned from years of studying strength of schedule data at the midway mark. I’ve found that the underdog record is particularly strong because you’re getting teams who are used to challenges. That doesn’t mean the underdog record of this group is currently strong. It means it will be from this point forward because they’re not getting the respect they deserve in the line as a group.

With this group, be sure to look for pointspreads that make you scratch your head. You’re probably on to something if you’re asking yourself “Doesn’t Vegas know these guys have played a tough schedule?” I should say here that oddsmakers aren’t oblivious to this factor. But, they’re basing the lines on how they expect the public to bet, and the public generally is oblivious!

Give it a shot. Save the lists in this article, and monitor the situation through the month of November. This is a fluid stat because a team’s strength of schedule adjusts every week. Tough Novembers will balance out things for the teams who’ve had it easy. Soft Novembers will balance things out for the teams who’ve had it tough. By the time December rolls around, there will be a whole new set of polluted results for us to adjust to!

If you’re trying to beat the spread, your schedule is ALWAYS tough! I hope today’s suggestions will help make things a little easier.

Adrian Peterson had a huge opening week in the 2009 season. He rushed for 180 yards and three touchdowns in a blowout victory at Cleveland. You immediately heard from all the TV pundits that even though Brett Favre had come out of retirement to lead the Vikings, their success or failure this year would depend on Adrian Peterson.

Is that true?

Hey, I love Peterson as much as the next guy. I’m the “smash mouth handicapper,” so I love running backs who make big plays! But I’ve learned over the years that a team’s success against the spread is often at odds with what the running backs are doing. That’s what matters most for handicappers. How do teams do against expectations?

You might be surprised to learn that:

*Minnesota was just 6-11 ATS last year in the regular season and playoffs even though Peterson was having a fantastic campaign. He rushed for 1,760 yards in the regular season, (smashing the goal of 1,000 that’s the standard for quality backs), and moved past 1,800 if you count the playoffs. Put those two together, and you have a great back but a lousy team ATS.

*Minnesota failed to cover Peterson’s best game, when he rushed for 192 yards in a 28-27 nailbiter over Green Bay. The Vikings were 3-point favorites.

*Minnesota did cover Peterson’s worst game, when he rushed for just 32 yards on 21 carries at New Orleans in a 30-27 victory. Minnesota was a three-point underdog, but won the game outright.

*Peterson topped 100 yards on 10 different occasions last year. That’s the much accepted mark for a “big” game from a running back in the NFL. Minnesota was 3-7 ATS in those 10 games.
*Peterson failed to reach 90 yards six times in the regular season. Minnesota was a break even 3-3 ATS in those games. The more yards Peterson gained, the worse the Vikings were against the spread!

Those factors go against the grain in terms of what you normally hear about running backs. Analysts who place a lot of weight on rushing will tell you that success on the ground leads to success on the scoreboard and against the spread. Those who are skeptical of rushing stats will tell you that backs pad their yardage when a team is sitting on a lead, and any correlation between rushing and success is an “after the fact” thing that’s tough to handicap. In this case, Peterson was gaining yards, but the team couldn’t have been sitting on huge leads because they weren’t covering spreads!

What’s going on here? It’s not like Minnesota was blowing covers because of a bad defense. They ranked sixth in total defense in 2008 in the NFL, fourth in preventing third down conversions, and 7th in yards allowed per play. You’d think a team with an excellent defense and a star running back would be dominating the league. Didn’t happen.

Here were the keys to me:

*Minnesota’s passing offense was poor. The Vikings ranked 25th in the league through the air, and had a tendency to make turnovers. A total of 17 interceptions on the season helped create a negative-six turnover differential for the season.

*The media, oddsmakers, and bettors, saw all the defensive highlights, all the Adrian Peterson highlights, and decided the team was better than it really was. Those expectations were built into Vegas lines that ended up being way too high. This wasn’t a great team. It was two-thirds of a great team that was hampered significantly by its problems at the quarterback position. 

*There’s not as big a correlation between great rushing production and scoreboard success as people think. Sometimes, as happened at Cleveland in the season opener, a running back or the rushing game, (particularly in college football), does drive a big result. You’d be surprised though at how often the rushing game ends up being relatively irrelevant. The team that wins and covers does so for other reasons. Remember that Minnesota won and covered Peterson’s worst game. They barely won and didn’t cover his best game. They were 3-7 ATS when he topped 100 yards on the ground.

*When it was all said and done, turnovers were what determined when the Vikings covered and when they didn’t. There were eight games counting the playoffs last year where Minnesota gave the ball away two times or more. They were 0-8 ATS in those games. Minnesota was 6-3 ATS with 0 or 1 giveaway. They lost the ball three times the day Peterson gained 192 yards in a non-cover. They didn’t lose it once in his poor production game at New Orleans that they won outright.

Keep this in mind as you handicap pro football games this weekend and the rest of the season. You can’t ignore the running game. But, you can’t put it on a pedestal either. If a great back helps you win your fantasy league, put up as many posters on the wall as you want. If you’re betting the NFL, Vegas-style, you won’t make money unless you use a comprehensive approach to handicapping that keeps all elements of the game in proper perspective.

And, that comprehensive approach better include strategies for recognizing potential turnover problems!

People talk about parity all the time in pro football. “True” parity doesn’t exist, because you have some good teams and some bad teams. Several coaches are proven winners. Several others are so new to the field that they haven’t established yet whether they can win or not. There aren’t 32 “starting” caliber quarterbacks to fill out the 32 teams. So, there are differences.

But, teams are more evenly packed in this sport than in college football, or even pro basketball, where you’d figure there would be plenty of talent to go around. And, there’s a clear driving force that keeps teams at the bottom motivated to work there way back toward the top.

I was thinking about that the other day when looking over the 2009 prospects for the worst teams in 2008. There are seasons where you can tell that a disaster is imminent. A bad coach hasn’t been fired yet. Management is stubbornly sticking with a quarterback with proven limitations. Ownership refuses to loosen the purse strings in a way that would bring in a superstar talent. Handicappers should be aware that seemingly all of last year’s worst teams are in position to improve this season.

Let’s take a look. Here’s a list of all the teams who finished at 6-10 or worse in 2008. There’s a total of nine. That tells you something interesting right there. Fully 23 of the league’s 32 teams were within a game of .500 or better! Any team with a flat tire saw the rest of the league race by them. 

GREEN BAY (6-10)
The Packers were disappointed with their record, but had very good stats for a 6-10 team. In fact, they had the stats of a playoff contender. Teams typically play to their stats rather than having their stats adjust to match their record. They also have a head coach and quarterback who learned from their mistakes in 2008. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this team compete for the NFC North title.

JACKSONVILLE (5-11)
A traditional power kind of hit a wall because of injuries, and what were reported to be attitude problems in the locker room with certain personnel. Those players are no longer with the team, so many expect the Jaguars to look like their usual selves this coming season. Based on prior form this decade, 5-11 was an aberration.

OAKLAND (5-11)
Oakland changed coaches a month into the season, and showed improvement under Tom Cable. They will either have a young quarterback who’s maturing with experience, or will go with a veteran in Jeff Garcia who’s better than a 5-11 quarterback. It might be a baby step forward rather than a big leap. But, you could see potential improvement here.

CINCINNATI (4-11-1)
The Bengals lost star quarterback Carson Palmer to injury last season. They’re clearly better than 4-11-1 when he’s healthy. This is also a team with some chemistry issues that may have been dealt with. Maybe it’s going to take a coaching change to really turn things around completely. In terms of 2009 expectations, these guys will be better just by staying healthy.

CLEVELAND (4-12)
The last five teams on the list all went 4-12 or worse last year, and all changed head coaches. That right there is a good indicator for improvement. If the prior coach was in over his head, that’s not an issue any more. If the prior coach simply lost his players, they’re likely to go all out for the new guy because they want to keep their jobs. In the case of the Browns, they also had the worst quarterback play in the league last year. Mathematically, they have to improve in that area as well.

SEATTLE (4-12)
The Seahawks were a perennial playoff team that was ravaged by injuries last year, just as a veteran coach was in his lame duck season before retiring. There will be a new coach, more healthy bodies, and much more intensity this season.

ST. LOUIS (2-14)
The Rams were just going through the motions most of last season. Now the former defensive coordinator of the NY Giants is in charge of the team to make sure that doesn’t happen. Injuries were also a big deal with this franchise last year. One of the biggest causes of bad seasons is injuries. One of the main reasons those teams bounce back the following year is that they’re healthier, and the bad injury luck is hitting other franchises.

KANSAS CITY (2-14)
Another new head coach who came from a successful staff. Plus the Chiefs are very likely to have much better quarterback play.

DETROIT (0-16)
It’s obviously impossible to get WORSE than 0-16! The Lions will be better this year by definition.

It’s not really going out on a limb to say that teams who finished 2-14 or worse are going to get better or that traditional playoff teams who had an off year are going to bounce back. But, this is what handicapping is all about! It’s not going out on a limb, it’s realizing the common sense stuff that the public is missing. Las Vegas lines are based on public perceptions and you can make good money by exploiting what they’re not thinking about!

*Teams like the Lions, Chiefs, and Rams won’t get much respect in the line early in the season even though they’ve made clear improvements. They were 4-44 combined last year, and the public just won’t bet on teams like that!

*Teams like the Seahawks, Jaguars, and Bengals won’t be priced like playoff contenders even though they were all playoff contenders before injuries and chemistry issues set in.

*Teams like the Packers and Browns may be much more competitive than the final standings from last year would suggest.

We need to be thinking about issues like this now so we’re ready to hit the ground running when the season starts in a few weeks. Vegas lines are often the softest right out of the gate. And, that’s because the public is making bad early season bets based on old perceptions!

So many teams change form in the second half of a baseball season, that I often think its best for handicappers to just start from scratch after the All-Star break.

*Mediocre teams who had been hanging around .500 start to fall off the pace because they lose their spirit, or because key guys who had been playing over their heads fall back to earth. If you think of them as a 50/50 team as they’re turning into a 40/60 team (or worse) percentage-wise, you’re going to lose money.

*Horrible teams who are so far off the radar nobody’s thinking about them start to play better. They make personnel changes that improve production. They run into opponents who don’t get fired up for them. Maybe they make a managerial change that brings new direction. If you think of them as a 35/65 team as they’re turning into a 50/50 team, you’re going to lose money.

*Some pennant contenders close the campaign on fire. Experienced veterans know that races are won in the second half of the season, and they go about trying to win a race. We’ve seen this time and time again over the years. The Oakland A’s were known for this back when the had “Moneyball” talent. A few contenders surged home strong last season. If you think of these contenders as a 55/45 teams as they’re turning into a 65/35 team, you’re going to lose money.

*Other pennant contenders choke under the pressure. They’re not ready for the big time yet. The hitters start to press too hard and lose their rhythm. Pitchers try to make every throw perfect and wear down from the strain. This is more likely to happen to young teams than veteran teams. We have some young contenders this year. If you think of these squads as a 55/45 team as they’re turning into a 45/55 team, you’re going to lose money.

I don’t want you to lose money!

I want you to stay ahead of the curve. One way to do that is start your record keeping (particularly the way you monitor the standings) all over again. Keep separate notes where everybody begins play on July 16^th at 0-0. And, do so with an eye on the developments that are about to take place.

*Pay special attention to all the mediocrities who are just going through the motions within striking distance of the .500 mark. See if you can anticipate which ones are about to fall off the map. Quick hint: franchises who start trading star players to “build for the future” are great nominees for poor second halves. Players know a fire a sale when they see one. It kills their spirit.

*Pay special attention to all the last place teams to see if you can find one that will be a money maker in the coming months. Will the Washington Nationals stay this horrible all season? Or, will gather up some pride and string some wins together. Maybe it won’t be the Nats. But somebody from off the radar is going to be a good moneymaker in the coming months.

*Evaluate the veteran make-up of the divisional contenders. Which teams have been through a pennant race before, and are likely to close well as they try to reach the postseason? Which teams mostly have newcomers who may develop a “deer in the headlights” look about them? Figure out how to bet on the headlights!

You should also do this with pitchers. Throw out the stats from the first half! If a star develops a tired arm, you’ll be betting on him because of his great stats, when you should be betting against him because he’s not in form right now. This year there are several decent arms who had bad early stretches that ruined their stats. They’re going to pitch well in the second half of the season, but you’ll be betting against them because their stats are so ugly.

If you start all pitchers over at 0-0, and calculate their ERA’s based ONLY on what’s happening in the second half, you’ll be in synch with reality rather than at the mercy of old news.

Your mind has a tendency to turn a long season into a slow and steady race where teams are all traveling at pre-determined speeds. That’s an illusion. The first half was its own race. A new one is about to start. Some cars you thought were slow are about to get faster. Some cars you thought were fast are about to slow down. Some cars you weren’t really paying attention to are about to become the biggest stars in the story (either through crashes or sprints).

Don’t let what happened in the first half loom too large in your imagination as you handicap the games. Let the mainstream media and other bettors stay behind the curve. We need to get out in front winning money!

Two weeks ago I wrote about the importance of studying on-base percentage when evaluating baseball offenses. I’m constantly surprised at how many people bet on bad offenses to score runs, or bet against teams with good offenses hoping they won’t score much that day.  If you missed that article, I hope you’ll check the archives and get up to date!

Today I want to talk about pitchers. Most of you already devote some study to the starting pitchers. Are you looking at the right things? Here are the stats I consider to be most important when evaluating starting pitchers:

*WHIP: This is simply Walks Plus Hits Allowed per Inning Pitched. Or, “baserunners” allowed by the pitcher per inning. It’s the inverse of what we looked at with on-base percentages for offenses. Teams who get guys on base score runs. Teams who can’t, don’t. Pitchers who keep guys off base win games. Pitchers who can’t, don’t!

I wish a true pitcher’s version of “on-base percentage” was widely available. You can find stat geek places that have it. But I’m trying to keep my list limited to things that are easy for everyone to find. WHIP is widely available at most baseball or handicapping sites.

Look to invest in guys who are at 1.2 or lower (the lower the better!). Look to go against guys who are at 1.5 or higher (the higher the number, the lower the likelihood that the pitcher will be able to stay in the rotation.

If I had to pick ONE stat that best described a pitcher, it would be his career WHIP number. That’s as close to a pitcher power rating as you can find that truly tells you what you’re going to get in a typical game.

*IP PER START: This is Innings Pitched Per Start, and can be calculated simply by dividing the number of innings the pitcher has thrown by his starts. I’m always amazed at how little attention is paid to this!

Any hurler who can average close to 7 innings per start is a Cy Young candidate, and a great guy to bet on at value prices. Not only is he getting people out for seven full innings, but he’s handing the game off the set-up man and the ace reliever. That’s as potent a combination as you can have when trying to find smart bets.

Any hurler at 6.5 to 6.9 is doing very well, and deserves respect.

Guys just around 6.0 are fairly generic. Be careful asking to much of them as favorites, but trust them as underdogs to at least keep you in the game.

Anything at 5.9 or below is poor. In fact, few starters are allowed to stay in the rotation with a number this low. Go against them before they get benched! Not only are these guys allowing runs, but they’re replaced by the lousy middle relievers who can really cause a game to blow up. The difference between 7.0 and 5.8 is even bigger than it seems because the caliber of pitcher is so bad who comes in to replace the 5.8 guy.

If you like handicapping totals, you should obviously be looking at Unders when two guys with high IP PER START numbers are going head to head and Overs when two guys with poor numbers are on the mound in the same game.

*STRIKEOUTS PER NINE INNINGS: The stathead industry discovered long ago that strikeout rates had more correlation to long term success than anything else Pitchers with high rates can stick around forever (Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson being two obvious examples that come to mind). Pitchers with low rates are always playing with fire, and eventually get replaced by better strikeout pitchers! Oddsmakers and the general public tend to ignore this stat for some reason, choosing to rely on Earned Run Average instead. Look, if you have two guys who are at 4.00 in ERA, but one gets a lot of K’s and the other doesn’t, then the high K pitcher is MUCH more likely to get better and last longer. The low K guy will eventually be allowing too much contact to be effective. You want to go against him when that starts to happen!

What about earned run average? Isn’t that the hallmark stat when it comes to starting pitchers?

I use it like everyone else does. My concern is that everyone plays too much weight on this stat at the expense of other indicators. Also, ERA is prone to short term extremes that cause gamblers to get too excited in one direction or another. A pitcher may go through hot or cold stretches that send the ERA careening off in a wild direction. He’s about to regress to the mean. Studying WHIP, IP PER START, and STRIKEOUT PER 9 INNINGS will keep you more grounded. Those stats don’t dart around as much. 

As handicappers, you need to know which starting pitchers will keep runners off base; which pitchers have the ability to strike out hitters if guys are on base; and which pitchers can last long enough to hand things off to the best relievers. You know THAT, and most of the battle is won. Throw in your knowledge of the opposing offenses, and the pieces will come into place very neatly.

That’s my pitch. Now see if you can swing for the fences!

I have to say this has to be one of the most interesting Aprils we’ve had in Major League Baseball in quite some time.

*Many of the projected superpowers have had trouble getting things going.

*Many projected patsies have been contending, or even leading their divisions.

*We have two new stadiums in the sport’s biggest city, and one of them may turn baseball into a circus. Like the New York Yankees franchise wasn’t already a circus!

*We have many teams scrambling to hold their own while their pitching ace recovers on the Disabled List. We have others scrambling to hold their own because their ace is struggling and they can’t figure out what’s wrong!

*The lack of elite pitching has led to many dramatic come-from-behind victories. No lead is safe! (So, be sure you know which teams have superior bullpens!)

All of this bedlam has led to a lot of confusion here in Las Vegas. Sports bettors who used to win in April are having troubles because pitchers they relied on in the past are letting them down (or sitting in street clothes). Oddsmakers have misread so many teams from top to bottom that you can’t even believe they make lines for a living. But\ sportsbooks are still making money because the public misread things even worse!

There are lessons to be learned from baseball as we see it “now.” And those lessons should influence our thinking from this point forward in the season.

*There’s more parity than people realize in baseball. There’s an assumption from the media and the public that the rich will crush the poor given time. It’s true that the rich have some edges. But those edges come from stockpiling expensive talent. If the expensive talent is on the Disabled List, or is otherwise struggling, then there’s really no difference between rich and poor. Run through the standings in your morning newspaper. That’s what you see. In April of 2009, there’s no difference between rich and poor in Major League Baseball.

*The level of parity is such that suffering more than one key injury is like having a flat tire in a car race. Everybody passes you! Getting “a little bit” worse can mean falling from being one of the best teams to being one of the worst. Look at the record of the Los Angeles Angels right after Vladimir Guerrero got hurt. They had suffered other injuries (and a tragedy) before that. In a finger snap, they had one of the least productive rosters in the American League. Oddsmakers and the public barely adjusted at first even though this was obvious. I do expect the team to make some adjustments and become more competitive. That first week without Vlad was brutal. If you’ve ever had a flat tire on a freeway you know what I’m talking about!

*Young and hungry players are often better than you realize. The public in particular will assume that a collection of guys they never heard of must be terrible. Sometimes that’s true. Sometimes it isn’t. If you can recognize when it isn’t before the betting markets adjust, you can make a lot of money. April of 2009 proves that dramatically.

*Teams who compete in the “shadows” of the high profile franchises have a tendency to be better than expected against outside competition. You saw that last year with the Tampa Bay Rays, who grasped the American League pennant from the desperate claws of Boston and New York. You’re seeing it so far in April 2009 with Toronto from the same division. They’ve only played teams from outside the A.L. East so far. Have you checked their record lately?

*In normal times, having great starting pitchers is what separates the best from the pack. When those pitchers aren’t in the mix because of injuries, pitching DEPTH becomes the tie-breaker. That’s true in the rotation, and late in close games. If some teams have some “A” guys and some “C” guys, and others have mostly “B” guys, who’s going to win when the “A” guys are on the Disabled List?

*Probably the biggest lesson is that the baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint! I wouldn’t be surprised if many of the power franchises do get their acts together and work their way toward the top of the standings by September. A lot of big name players are due to get healthy. And, veteran teams in particular have learned to pace themselves for a long season. There’s no prize for being the best team in April. What’s important for handicappers to realize is that oddsmakers price the games as if it’s the end of the marathon rather than the beginning. The superpowers are being priced RIGHT NOW like champions even though they’re just playing generic baseball. That creates a window of opportunity that sharp handicappers can drive a truck through.

If you’ve been winning so far in the bases, congratulations! If you’ve been struggling so far, I hope the lessons you learned today will turn things around. Baseball is a sport that’s easy to beat if you’re willing to do your homework!

I’ll get to this week’s notes in just a moment.  But first, be sure to call me this week for my NBA playoff packages.  We closed last postseason on a 13-1 ATS run, including a perfect 6-0, 100% in the NBA Finals.  We also enter the postseason on a 36-21, 63% run to close the regular season.  Get my Playoff packages at 1-888-222-6391!  Call now to take full advantage for my early-bird specials.

Now to this week’s thoughts:

The NBA playoffs start this weekend, and I want to warn about the dangers of putting too much weight on “recent form” when analyzing each series.

A variety of factors can give you a false read. Among the most important:

*The BEST teams have been trying to save something lately for the games that really matter most. Once the seedings are pretty much in place, there’s no reason to go all out in early April. Coaches want their players to do enough to stay sharp, but they also want to rest up for the true wars coming up in the postseason. Pointspread results just don’t matter for these teams. I wouldn’t say they’re going at half speed. Maybe three-quarter speed. Impressive teams will post some unimpressive results in early April. Once the playoffs start, you need to think of those teams as impressive rather than unimpressive.

*Teams in the bottom half of the brackets really emphasized late March and early April because they wanted to make sure they made the playoffs. They were going all out most nights, and are due to hit a wall very soon. The recent results look impressive, but you can’t assume they’re going to carry into the “second” season. It’s like exhausting yourself climbing a mountain only to find Sasquatch at the top. Who are you going to like between Sasquatch and an exhausted climber? The quality of the climb really doesn’t matter at that point.

*Many teams outside of the playoffs have barely been going through the motions in recent weeks. Some are losing on purpose to improve their position in the draft lottery. Others are experimenting with new lineups in hopes of finding something that clicks for next season. The point here is that some of the “hot” streaks you saw from mid-level playoff contenders were really just strings of games against opponents who didn’t care. This creates illusions every year!

So, don’t say to yourself, “I’m going against this big name favorite because they haven’t been winning by big margins lately.”

And, don’t say to yourself, “I’m taking this team because they were on fire down the stretch.”

History has made it very clear that those things don’t matter all that much. Occasionally a hot team will stay hot. Occasionally a powerhouse really does have some issues that will cause problems. As handicappers, we’re trying to play the percentages. Most of the time, teams will return to the form you would expect when everyone is going at 100% intensity. The elite teams will look great again. Those beneath them in the standings will have their weaknesses exposed because they’re not facing soft opposition that doesn’t care.

If you want to pick winners in the opening weekend of the playoffs, and all through the postseason, focus on these keys:

*Defense! It’s always the most important factor in the playoffs. It’s the reason Boston beat the Lakers last year. It’s the reason San Antonio has been a dynasty (when healthy) the past several seasons. You can go all the way back to Bill Russell’s days with the Celtics. Defense wins championships in this sport. Look at defensive field goal percentages, forced turnovers, steals, blocked shots, defensive efficiency (points allowed adjusted for possessions), and a knack for preventing the opposing star from getting good looks at the basket (the hidden secret to San Antonio’s dynasty).

*Teamwork! This is important on both sides of the ball. It’s a big part of defense, because so much of modern defense is about rotating properly to make sure opponents don’t get easy shots. And, it’s a big part of offense because you have to work as a team to get your own open looks. Look at assist numbers on offense. Look for a balance of scoring from a variety of weapons. Look for contributions from behind the arc, as most top teams now have guys they can count on to hit three’s from long range. The TV networks tend to focus on the high scorer for each team. Winning handicappers will be looking for balance across the full spectrum of weapons.

*Respect from the Refs! It’s a shame that officiating plays such a big role in this sport. But avid fans know what I’m talking about. The team that’s likely to get more respect from the refs is likely to get a few extra calls go their way in a close game. When the pointspreads are close to pick-em (which they often are when top teams are playing each other), that’s going to heavily influence pointspread results. Use your knowledge of NBA officiating to its fullest. And, watch the early round games to see if any new young stars are starting to get some respect.

*Health! It has to be said this year that injuries are going to loom large over both conferences. San Antonio will miss Manu Ginobili for the playoffs and Tim Duncan is playing on one leg. Andrew Bynum just came back from an injury, probably making the top seeded Lakers even stronger. Kevin Garnett of Boston probably won’t be able to have the impact on this year’s playoffs that he did last year. Time will tell regarding that. If shorthanded teams wear down or give up hope, nothing else is going to matter.

Defense, teamwork, and respect from the refs only wins playoff games if you’re healthy!

Best of luck handicapping the NBA playoffs this year. There are several first round matchups I’m very excited about analyzing. And, if the seedings hold, we’re going to see some truly great basketball in the later rounds. Enter with the right mindset, and you’ll enjoy a very profitable Spring and Summer! We definitely did last playoff season, closing with a 13-1 ATS run, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in the Finals. Good Luck this opening weekend and I’ll post my next update on Tuesday, April 21.

A lot of old school handicappers were caught napping last season in Major League baseball.

The sport changed dramatically because steroids were cleaned out of the game. Strategies that had worked through the “steroid era” took a beating.

*Games that used to fly Over stayed Under, particularly in the cooler months of the year.

*Pitchers who used to give up a lot of gopher balls were suddenly getting people out. Fly balls to the warning track aren’t much of a problem unless there’s a runner on third.

*Veteran teams suddenly became VERY injury prone. Franchises had spent big money on productive veterans only to find that the production disappeared and many guys were on the disabled list with aches and pains that hadn’t bothered them before.

*Teams that had developed the habit of waiting around for somebody to hit a home run stopped scoring runs. Those who were aggressive in trying to “create” runs jumped to the top of the standings.

I warned you about this early on last year. I’m hoping you took my advice and cleaned up! Many professional wagerers and respected pundits were slow to catch on. In fact, some never did and just kept assuming that things would return to normal once the weather warmed up, or once the veterans got healthy, or once players found a new way to skirt the rules.

A new season is upon us. It’s vital that you enter the 2009 campaign in the right frame of mind. Here are some guidelines to follow as you try to pick winners this week, this month, and through the rest of the season.

*Pay close attention to what pitchers are doing NOW. It’s easy to fall back into bad habits and bet based on your perceptions from the other era. You need to monitor recent stats, and reports from the mlb.com website and regional publications to see who’s dealing with shoulder issues, elbow issues, and inconsistency with the release point. You know, pitcher’s used steroids too. Some of those guys became injury prone last year. Some of those guys lost a few miles-per-hour off the fastball and became mortal. Focus on recent form until the steroid era is further back in the rear-view mirror. The end of that era helped a lot of guys, but hurt a few others.

*Pay close attention to how offenses are scoring runs. I hope you got to watch some of the World Baseball Classic a few weeks ago. The championship game between Japan and Korea was a throwback to when teams used whatever strategies they could to advance runners and score runs. Teams from the US, Venezuela, and the Dominican Republic sat back and waited for home runs that didn’t happen. Then, they sat on their couches and watched the championship game with you! I expect more teams to be aggressive with small-ball approaches this season. Too many franchises spent big money to watch NOTHING happen last year. Offenses that develop a variety of resources will find their way to the winner’s circle more often than not.

*Have respect for the power that DOES exist! Not all home run hitters were cheaters. Some guys last year were able to go deep consistently and their teams put runs on the board. You have to assume that last year’s power was clean and that the 2008 power guys will still produce in 2009. It’s okay to play for three-run homers if you’ve got some guys who can actually clear the fence. It’s all about putting runs on the board.

I’ll talk more about baseball in the coming weeks. You can look forward to articles about the NBA playoffs and early season Major League action for the next few months.

I can’t emphasize enough that you have to forego many of your old baseball approaches until the dust has settled in the new era. Not only are we dealing with shrinking ballplayers, we’re dealing with a shrinking economy. Some franchises are just going to hunker down for awhile and accept losing. Bet against them! Some franchises are going to get creative on smaller payrolls, and find ways to grind out wins. The betting markets were slow to catch up to Oakland during the “Moneyball” years and never did respect Minnesota all the years they were a contender. Think about Tampa Bay last year! They offered line value all the way through the American League championships.

And the old school guys just kept betting against them because of old, FALSE, perceptions.

Make it a top priority to stay on top of things out of the gate this year. Know which pitchers are ready to go, and which are dealing with distractions. Know which offenses have solved the riddle, and which are still throwing darts and hoping for the best. The better your start, the bigger your profit pyramid will be at the end of the season!

One of the truisms of handicapping big time games in Las Vegas is that, believe it or not, the pointspread doesn’t matter!

Let’s not go off the deep end here. The pointspread always matters. It’s just that in big games, a half point here or there rarely come into play. If it’s a small spread, the favorite wins by a medium or large amount or loses outright. If it’s a medium spread, you either see an upset over an arrogant favorite or a blowout from the superior side. At spreads near pick-em, whoever wins covers the game.

If you want to pick winners in the Final Four and National Championship games this Saturday and Monday, you’ll need to focus on the TEAMS rather than sweating line value.

Here’s a look at last year’s scores from this weekend:

Memphis (-2.5) beat UCLA 78-63

Kansas (+3.5) beat North Carolina 84-66

Kansas (+2) beat Memphis 75-68

And, the year before:

Ohio State (+1) beat Georgetown 67-60

Florida (-3) beat UCLA 76-66

Florida (-4) beat Ohio State 84-75

Whenever the elite in any sport get together, the Vegas pointspreads are going to be fairly close to even on most occasions! The nature of basketball is that a team that imposes its will on a game will be in position to get a lead and protect it as long as they make free throws. If they can’t make late free throws, well, they’ll lose outright the way Memphis did to Kansas in last year’s championship game.

With this in mind, let’s go over the factors we should be handicapping in this weekend’s games. I’ll start with the obvious ones:

*Who can impose its will on the game? Which team in each matchup has the horses to force their preferred tempo for 40-minutes? If both teams prefer the same type of tempo, which team has the higher upside in that style? This is arguably the most fundamental element of college basketball handicapping these days, and many analysts don’t even consider it. They’re looking at pointspread records, money movement, dog and favorite histories. Focus on the GAME and figure out who’s going to drive the flow.

*Can that team make free throws with a lead? Simple question. By now you have plenty of examples from this season to study as well. Everyone still alive has won a lot of games this year, and is undefeated through the tournament obviously. How have they done from the line in the last few minutes? How did they perform with leads in their conference tournaments? If it’s a veteran team, how did they perform LAST year in the Big Dance in this key area?

*Which team has the superior defense? It’s very hard to come-from-behind if you’re facing a unit that’s tough inside and guards the perimeter well. This isn’t the regular season where you can fall behind an inferior team and bail yourself out with a strong finish. It’s difficult to have a strong finish against a good defense. Look at shooting percentages allowed, two-point shooting percentages allowed, points allowed per game, points allowed per possession, and defensive performances in BIG games for guidance here. You’ll want to back teams with the defensive edge, particularly if you see they’re going to control the game and make their free throws. That’s “game of the year” material if you can find those three elements all working together in harmony.

*Which team has the superior ballhandling? This area is often overlooked because it’s hard for TV announcers to focus on something that’s “not” happening. When a team isn’t making turnovers, you don’t notice because it seems like they’re running their normal offense. Well, it takes maturity, poise, and talent from your ballhandlers to look normal! Study turnover data from the NCAA tournament and each team’s conference tournament to get a read on guard play. One reason we see so many blowouts in the later rounds of college basketball tournaments is that the trailing team pressures themselves into turnovers and bad shots when trying to rally against a strong defense.

To a degree, all the survivors are strong in these areas already, or they wouldn’t still be playing for the trophy! It’s your job now to differentiate amongst the survivors in these vital departments. It can be done. Frankly, it HAS to be done if you want to get your money in on the right teams.

Best of luck this weekend with the big college games. I’m sure you’re looking forward to the Final Four as much as I am. In coming weeks I’ll be focusing on the NBA playoffs, and the start of the Major League Baseball season. I firmly believe that baseball is easiest to beat in the early weeks when the betting lines are based on last year’s perceptions rather than this year’s reality. I’ve also got some great keys for nailing the “second season” of pro hoops. The door may be closing soon on college hoops. It will be opening to other great money making opportunities!

Last year during the NCAA tournaments I discussed how college hoops had become top heavy. The elite teams were REALLY good…and had moved further ahead “of the pack” than the betting markets had realized.

Ultimately, the top four seeds all advanced to the Final Four for the first time ever. They were able to do that by being absolutely DOMINANT in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds.

Let’s review what happened last year with the top seeds:

SWEET 16

North Carolina (-8) beat Washington State 68-47 (up 35-21 at the half)

UCLA (-13) beat Western Kentucky 88-78 (up 41-20 at the half)

Memphis (-5) beat Michigan State 92-74 (up 50-20 at the half!)

Kansas (-12) beat Villanova 72-57 (up 41-22 at the half)

ELITE 8

North Carolina (-5) beat Louisville 83-73 (up 44-32 at the half)

UCLA (-6) beat Xavier 76-57 (up 33-24 at the half)

Memphis (-3) beat Texas 85-67 (up 39-28 at the half)

Kansas (-9) beat Davidson 59-58 (up 30-28 at the half)

It was an amazing weekend for the powers needless to say. They went 6-2 ATS for the full games even though the lines were high because the public was betting them hand over fist. The public loves betting on big name teams, and particularly when the seedings confirm their greatness. I know several professional wagerers in Las Vegas who thought they would make a killing taking all of the points in these two rounds last year. They spent the weekend yelling at the TV!

If you bet first halves, which are available here in Las Vegas, the favorites went 7-1 ATS. So, that’s a combined 13-3 ATS for the top seeds, the obvious national powers that everyone knew was great before the tournament even started!

Note how dominant those first halves were in terms of the victory margins. All seven “first half” covers actually covered the full game spread in the first 20 minutes! North Carolina was up 14 at the half over Washington State laying just eight for the full game. Memphis won a half by 30 points! It’s as if every game was following the same script (except for Kansas/Davidson).

The betting markets literally had no idea that the top seeds were THAT much better than the field. Ironically, the “smart money” kept the lines from going higher because professional wagerers love betting against the public. Those are the guys who play first halves too. That 3-13 record in these games left quite a bruise.

Will we something similar this year with the superior seeds left in the brackets?

The temptation is to say NO, 2008 was a one-time fluke. It’s not like what we saw last year was par for the course. Usually the public-betting favorites are a bit overrated rather than underrated. Remember it was the first time ever all four top seeds reached the final weekend.

That being said, this isn’t a year that saw a depth of super teams across the landscape. Only a handful of powers really set themselves apart during the regular season. You shouldn’t be that shocked if members of that handful go for the jugular early in their games and post some impressive pointspread results. Who’s going to stop them? Last year’s underdogs just got out of the way and went home dejectedly.

Keys to remember:

*Watch and learn as things develop. Some longtime pros TOOK A BATH last year because they were muttering “this can’t keep happening” all weekend long. It could. It did. The powers really were that much better than everyone else. Be ready to take the dogs if things return to normal, but don’t be afraid to lay the points if the elite continues to blow and go. If you’re a dog-heavy player, at least PASS the danger spots rather than betting with your fingers crossed.

*Review regular season results to see how the underdogs performed on the road against the best other teams in their conferences. That will be the closest you can get to simulating the task at hand for them. If the dogs weren’t consistently competitive in their “challenge” games, be careful asking them to be heroes this time around.

*Remember that blowouts are keyed by aggression from the favorite. All four of last year’s top seeds just flew at the basket out of the gate and dared you to stop them. First weekend survivors who DON’T do that are less likely to post great results. Just like in poker, aggression is rewarded. Bet on aggression. Don’t stand in the way of it and hope the refs call a charging foul on the guy who busted your nose.

*Be sure to incorporate arena conditions into your handicapping. Two sites will be in football stadiums (Indianapolis and Phoenix), where shooting backdrops may be odd. You don’t want to bet on underdogs who rely on contributions from the perimeter. Flying at the basket is an even stronger approach for a favorite when the dog is trying to stay in the game launching bombs in a dome.

The NCAA Tournament has been very entertaining so far. You’ve reached a potential danger spot on the road to the championship. Don’t swerve off the road in a spinout that resembles something like that 3-13 underdog disaster from last year. Drive carefully and smart…and you’ll reach your destination in great shape!