In a nutshell:

*Oddsmakers would stack the lines against the bye teams because the public loved laying points with rested, superior teams. The pointspreads might be 3-4 points (or more) higher than normal.

*Recognizing value, professional wagerers and serious handicappers would back the underdogs getting all of those bonus points. Sure, a bye week and home field is worth something. But, in a league with parity, those edges shouldn’t be worth THAT much.

*The rested superior teams would jump out to big leads and coast to blowout victories, rendering the pointspreads meaningless. The public would clean up, the sportsbooks and value wagerers would lick their wounds and come back to fight another day.

Now, we all know that the public loses over the long haul, and that smart bettors grind out a living. This was a temporary four game bump in the road that didn’t matter much in the big picture. Still, it was painful to endure if you were the type to bet on line value.

That’s changed in recent years. The “best of the best” just aren’t head and shoulders above the pack any more. And, the tendency for games to get “shorter” because of how teams run clock has enabled underdogs to be more competitive. Look at what happened last year during Round Two:

JANUARY 2008, ROUND TWO

San Diego (+10) beat Indianapolis 28-24 (a 14-cover for the dog)

NY Giants (+7) beat Dallas 21-17 (an 11-point cover for the dog)

Jacksonville (+13) lost to New England 31-20 (a 2-point cover for the dog)

Seattle (+7) lost to Green Bay 42-20 (blowout loss)

The only “value” loss came in a blizzard, and not many coastal teams are going to beat Green Bay in a blizzard.

As the games were being played, it was clear that the differences just weren’t that big amongst the teams.

Composite First Quarter Score: Favorites 28, Underdogs 28 (dead heat)

Composite Halftime Score: Favorites 66, Underdogs 52 (3.5 points per game)

Composite Final Score: Favorites 124, Underdogs 87 (about 6 points per game)

The Favorites slowly pulled way as a group, but not by enough of a margin to justify the pointspreads. And, if Seattle hadn’t been so poorly suited to playing in a blizzard, the margins would have been much closer. It would have been a near dead heat at halftime, and a much tighter full game average.

Let’s go back two seasons.

JANUARY 2007, ROUND TWO

Indianapolis (+4) beat Baltimore 15-6 (a 13-point cover)

Seattle (+9) lost to Chicago 27-24 in OT (a 9-point cover in regulation)

New England (+5) beat San Diego 24-21 (an 8-point cover)

Philadelphia (+6) lost to New Orleans 27-24 (a 3-point cover)

That was a 4-0 board sweep for the Underdogs, making it 7-1 ATS the last two seasons. Underdogs were 4-4 straight up too, meaning a great moneyline profit if you were betting those teams to win outright.

Look out Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Carolina, and the NY Giants! Home field and a week off are no longer a guarantee of postseason success!

I’m not saying all the underdogs will be locks this weekend. It’s very possible NONE will cover. The fundamentals at the point of attack and in turnover prevention will play a big role like always. Quarterback quality isn’t ever going to stop mattering at this level. Teams who move the chains will beat those who don’t. Just remember that playoff teams seem to be much more evenly matched these days in those key areas than they used to be. We don’t have super-teams who crush their opponents the first time they take the field. And, the games are so short that there’s not much time to run away and hide unless your opponent is giving away gift scores with turnovers.

Let this point register for a second. The best teams in the NFL, after enjoying an extra week to rest and prepare, and getting to play on their home fields in front of rabid crowds, are just 4-4 straight up the last two years! STRAIGHT UP!

When you study the games this weekend, try to determine how much (if at all) the lines have been adjusted because of historical public preferences. Or, have the books adjusted to recent season’s results? Of course, the public may be a bit gun shy after going 1-7 on favorites the last two years in this round! 

Study the stats, study the players, study the health of the rosters. Know the weather forecast and make sure you can justify your opinion at the current line that’s being offered. Can you make a case for a favorite if the hurdle is higher than it should be? You’d better be sure you can make a STRONG case for either side on this particular weekend, particularly in the areas of third down conversions and turnovers.

And many times, they are wrong. 

Think back to last season. Heading into the final Sunday on the schedule, the New England Patriots seemed like a virtual lock to go the distance. They hadn’t lost a single game straight up (and would finish the regular season undefeated). They were going to be prohibitive favorites every time they took the field.

New England didn’t cover a single playoff game, though they did keep winning up until the Super Bowl. An injury to Tom Brady limited the team’s explosiveness. That explosiveness is what set them apart in the first place.

The NY Giants weren’t on anybody’s radar. Nobody thinks the Wildcard teams have a chance to run the table. Dallas was the prohibitive favorite to win the NFC. Green Bay was getting consideration because Brett Favre was thought to have a little magic remaining in his arm.

Dallas didn’t win a game (meaning the prohibitive favorites didn’t cover a single spread in the postseason). The Giants won on the road at Tampa Bay, then at Dallas, then at Green Bay.

And you know what happened in the Super Bowl. A double digit underdog that returned more than 3-1 on the moneyline won straight up.

It’s very important for handicappers to remember that the playoffs are the start of a NEW season rather than the continuation of the old one.

*Injuries happen, and that can throw a monkey wrench into anyone’s plans.

*Teams can peak late, meaning that their “current form” in January is much better than what they had showed early in the season.

*Teams can peak early, meaning that their “current form” in January is much worse than what they had showed during the regular season. This was certainly the case for New England last year, particularly on defense. The Pats peaked in October and had to really battle in the playoffs to keep advancing.

*Turnovers are fickle, but play a huge role in determining who wins or loses close games. Teams who focus on the fundamentals are more likely to see fate smile on them. History says you should be wary of high risk/high reward teams, even when they succeeded much more often than not in the regular season. “Style” matters in this “new season.”

*Strength of schedule immediately becomes tough for everyone!

With all of that in mind, I’d suggest thinking about the following as you watch the final week of regular season action this weekend.

*Which teams are playing the best RIGHT NOW? Throw out September and October. Give November partial weight. Who’s playing the best on both sides of the ball heading into January?

*Which playoff contenders are below their early form right now? Who started hot but has been relatively indifferent the last few weeks? It’s hard to turn it on and off at this level. Teams who aren’t in synch will likely be overpriced in January because the market is looking at the full season record.

*Which teams are healthy? It’s very tough to roll through January if you’re shorthanded. New England was actually healthy heading into the playoffs before Brady got hurt in the posteason. So, even being healthy right now isn’t enough! You should at least know who’s dealing with injuries and who’s healthy right now. Then adjust as news develops.

*Which quarterbacks are moving the chains and avoiding turnovers? I can’t emphasize this enough. Those two factors are why the NY Giants ran the table last year. Eli Manning stayed in control and focused on the fundamentals. New England was historically dominant because they did the same thing until Brady was hobbled. Don’t be fooled by high volume passing numbers or the occasional big run. Look at consistency in the areas of third downs and avoiding turnovers.

*Be wary of teams who posted strong won-lost records against weak schedules. The Giants played a killer schedule last year, and that was a great hidden indicator for postseason success. Teams who got rich against weaklings are usually exposed as pretenders. It’s vital that you know what everyone had to deal with in their first 16 games. Don’t make the mistake of loading up on a pretender with limited “big game” experience.

You may have noticed that many football lines move quickly as soon as the openers go up. Why is that? Professional wagerers have done their work ahead of time, and know what numbers they want to pound. They don’t wait to see what happens with the line, or wait until game day to think about what to do. Professional wagerers plan ahead. You should be doing THAT this week so you’re ready for the playoffs the moment the brackets are set!

Scott’s free play on Monday is a play on Towson State, plus points over Bowling Green!

Friday’s free play from Scott is the LA Clippers over the Pacers.

Well, even if you’re not as excited as usual about watching the games on TV, you should be VERY excited about handicapping the games! The key to picking pointspread winners in college bowl games is knowing which teams are excited and which teams aren’t. In some matchups, that’s literally EVERYTHING! The regular season stats don’t matter. The won-lost records don’t matter. The talent matchups don’t matter. The team that’s excited plays its heart out, and the team that’s bored barely shows up. Ballgame.

Here’s a quick and easy guideline you can use simply with team motivation in mind:

*If you believe that only one team will be enthused about the game, Bet that team! Don’t worry about the pointspreads. If you look back over the years, you’ll see that pointspreads are often irrelevant in the bowls anyway. Whoever wins the game covers the spread. Figure out who’s most likely to win the game based on motivational factors.

*If NEITHER team is likely to be excited about the game, look for a total play based on the weaknesses of the rosters. If you have bored teams with shaky offenses, take the Under. If you have bored teams with soft defenses, take the Over and look for a shootout. There’s no need to force a team side play if you can’t get a true read on a motivational edge. The lack of excitement from both teams can still trigger strong selections.

*If BOTH teams are likely to be excited (few of those this year outside the BCS Championship game), look for a total play based on the strengths of the rosters. Excited teams with good offenses are definitely going to play a shootout. It will be like watching a Big 12 South or Conference USA game. Excited teams with good defenses are going to play a field position war that’s likely to go Under the total.

How do you go about figuring out who has the motivational edge? Here are some ideas:

*Look for any team who performed below expectations during the regular season to be disappointed about their bowl. They were dreaming big dreams, and are probably in a game that doesn’t get the juices flowing. Teams who limped home with poor Novembers are notorious for no-showing their bowl games. Being “bowl eligible” doesn’t make you “bowl ready.” Look for November fade-outs to continue fading.

*Look for any team who performed above expectations during the regular season to be excited about their bowl. They hadn’t counted on a postseason treat back in September. Now they’re going to get one.

*Look for teams who closed the season with a rivalry victory to be flat in their bowl. This can be a great indicator because the public remembers the big win and expects it to create “momentum” for the postseason. What happens more often than not is that the team kind of played their bowl game already in that rivalry war, and they don’t have any intensity left for what amounts to an exhibition game.

*Look for teams who got caught napping in letdown spots in their season finale to bounce back strong in their bowl game. This isn’t common, but happens a few times a year. You should always look to take quality teams with a chip on their shoulder. This group qualifies.

*Look for senior heavy teams who want to go out on a winning note. This is their last game together as a unit, and they want it to be special. Experience is a great thing anyway in this sport. Experience plus motivation is a very strong combination.

*Look for underdogs who are likely to be offended about their underdog status. Boy is this a good one. The kids had a few weeks to read in the paper that they’re the lesser of the two teams. Some head coaches keep pounding on this point to get the players ready. They come out breathing fire, and the flat footed favorite never gets back in the game.

If you’re lucky, you’ll find some spots where different indicators are lining up. You’ll find some seniors who are offended about being an underdog facing a team that’s either flat off a rivalry win, or disappointed because they’re not playing in a better game. You’ll find demoralized teams who will just be going through the motions matched up against good teams that happened to get caught napping their last time out. What’s going to happen when those good teams wake up?!

The bowls start on Saturday December 20, then run all the way through January 8. The games will be coming hot and heavy once they start. Do your preparation work NOW. If you’re motivated to pick winners, you’ll find the teams who are motivated to cover the spreads!

FREE PLAY: I’m taking the points with La Salle against Philly Big 5 rival Villanova on Sunday. La Salle has had a week off while Villanova has had to go up against Texas and crosstown rival St. Joseph’s. This will be the third big game in six days for the Wildcats. La Salle added some needed size this season with 6-9 Vernon Goodridge who has responded by averaging 6.4 rebounds and 7.0 points. Forward Kimmani Barrett is hitting 45 percent from the three-point line while guard Rodney Green leads the team with 13.9 points per game. Villanova star guard Scottie Reynolds still is experiencing shooting problems as he was only 5-for-15 in the St. Joseph’s win. Villanova as a team is shooting only 42 percent compared to 48 percent for the Explorers. From beyond the arc, La Salle has a 48-36 percent advantage. I look for La Salle to have enough to stay under the number in this rivalry. Thanks! GL! Scott.

Scott’s FREE play on Thursday night: Take the Edmonton Oilers in tonight’s NHL.

Scott’s free play on Wednesday is Tulsa, minus points over Missouri State.

 A handful of players were seen and heard in the locker room joking, laughing and generally having a good time in the aftermath of a 10th straight prime-time television loss. Defensive team captain Nnamdi Asomugha criticized the postgame scene, wondering why more players weren’t upset. “There are guys that are frustrated every game,” Asomugha said.

  Coach Tom Cable said, “I think any time you get beat, I don’t know if there’s anything to laugh about. I don’t think there’s anything you feel good about when you get beat.” Asomugha added, “We don’t play good football, we don’t play sound football. We’ve been undisciplined.”  The Raiders gained 163 yards, 59 of them in the second half. Think they cared after halftime?  

  This is common late in any football season: too many players on a bad team that don’t care. This can lead to awful play on the gridiron – and blowout losses. It’s not common to see this early in the season, as hopes are usually high for improvement by all teams. The Rams defied this in 2008, as they started the season not caring, starting 0-4 SU/ATS, before firing their coach. It was clearly an unhappy, confused clubhouse, as the moment interim coach Jim Haslett took over, the Rams won two in a row as big underdogs over Dallas and Washington.

  Of course, that didn’t last long, going on a 0-6 SU/2-4 ATS run. There are signs coming from their locker room again of discontent, which shouldn’t be a shock. RB Steven Jackson played well last week in his first extended action in six weeks. At the half, he seemed on pace to reach 100 yards rushing, but got just one touch in the fourth quarter, a 1-yard carry with 14:04 remaining. Thereafter, Antonio Pittman and Kenneth Darby handled the running-back chores.  

  Jackson insisted that he didn’t take himself out of the game, even though coach Jim Haslett said Jackson “was gassed, and his leg was hurting.” After the game, Jackson didn’t like that or agree. “I wish he’d quit saying that,” snapped Jackson when informed what his coach had said. The two claim to have made amends – which may be true – but it’s a situation worth watching carefully. Discontent can spread quickly in unhappy locker rooms, which can follow them onto the field.

  On the flip side, winning cures locker room unhappiness. We witness the odd soap opera of Giants’ WR Plaxico Burress, yet the team continued to win even when he was suspended. You can tell that was a problem child of one person alone on an island. His antics weren’t disrupting the team at all. Part of it is that good coaches know how to communicate and keep a team together when things like that happen, and another part is that winning keeps teams focused and happy. The Patriots had a similar wacky wideout in 2001, All-Pro Terry Glenn, and coach Bell Belichick cut him in midseason. The players backed the coach and continued to win – all the way through the Super Bowl.  

  But it’s the bad teams, the fractured, unharmonious ones, that get my attention this time of the football season. They can offer ample wagering opportunities. Teams trailing badly at the half aren’t likely to make an effort in the second half. The Rams trailed the Jets 40-0 at the half, then lost the second half, 7-3.

  Bad offensive teams like the Rams, Raiders and Lions offer opportunities to wager the second half under the total. The Rams trailed the 49ers 35-3 at the half the next week, then 13 total points were scored in the second half. Teams ahead at home by big margins will look to play it safe, run the football, not show anything on offense, and just get out with a win rather than run it up in the second half. The Raiders were down 27-7 at the half to the Chargers, then 7 total points were scored in the second half. 

  Think it’s fun showing up to play for the Detroit Lions? The Lions are last in the league in run defense and are starting a pair of rookie ends. QB Daunte Culpepper is running the offense, a guy who wasn’t even on the team in preseason and September. He has seven turnovers while completing barely 50 percent of his passes. The Lions have used seven starting offensive line combinations. Even with the offseason additions of Leigh Bodden and Brian Kelly, the Lions’ defense has managed only four INTs. The record for fewest in a 16-game season is five.

  Trailing 35-10 at the half on Thanksgiving Day, Detroit was outscored 12-0 in the second half – losing the second half line plus going under the total as Tennessee went conservative. “We hit the first punch and they fell,” one Titans’ player said. The toothless Lions have earned that 0-13 SU, 5-8 ATS record partially by not playing 60 minutes of football many Sundays, especially on the road – and don’t expect that to change.

Call toll free to 1-888-222-6391! Free play listed below:

Today’s Free Play (12/6)

It’s bounce-back time for San Francisco and I’m playing the Dons. Former Kansas Jayhawk Rex Walters is in his first season as coach of the Dons. Walters looked at the left-over talent and stated this was a great opportunity right out of the box, that no rebuilding job was needed. The Dons only losses through their first seven games came at Cal and at USC. In fact, they were a huge dog in the loss to the Trojans, but took USC right to the wire before losing by five points. SFO was out-scored 26-9 at the FT line, yet almost pulled the outright upset. Unfortunately, San Fran ran out of gas in that loss to USC and were quite lethargic two nights later in a loss to Cal Poly. That defeat will allow Walters to show his players that they can regress to last year’s level if they don’t bring their “A”-game each and every night. Four players are averaging between 10.2 and 20.6 ppg. Leading the way is forward Dior Lowhorn. The 6′7 junior is crushing the competition and no one has had an answer for him yet. Long Beach State comes to the Bay area with a desire to run and gun. But the team doesn’t play a lot of defense and that’s what will get the 49ers in trouble against a Dons’ team with solid scoring options. Look for San Francisco to get right back on track, basically just having to win this game to cover the short number. I’m finishing Saturday night’s card with a play on the San Francisco Dons. Thanks! GL! Scott.