After a brutal Sunday, I wasn’t big on the Monday card so I took the day off. Today, I’m bouncing back with my Black Diamond AL Play of the Week. An important aspect of the recent success has been coming back with a big day after the occasional losing day. Let’s hope that trend continues this evening.

A wise man once said that one of the keys to success is surrounding yourself with people who are smarter than you. As fall approaches, you will see that I leave the college football to a couple of the sharpest men I’ve had the pleasure of meeting since my arrival in Las Vegas.

I don’t have the time or knowledge to do it all. I’m overwhelmed with the NFL, MLB and college basketball. I really don’t understand how any individual can take on much more than that. Historically, I’ve only handicapped the National League in the summer but I have taken on some of the AL responsibilities and it’s been profitable for the bankroll but it’s been my least pleasurable summer in years. All I can say is very few people can come close to understanding the preparation necessary to gain an advantage on a daily basis betting sports.

I’ve had hundreds of people tell me they could turn a consistent profit handicapping and 99% have been fooling no one but themselves. It’s a tricky industry to figure out where the brilliant minds are. Very few people have the dedication and perseverance neccessary to turn a profit but I’ve been fortunate enough to find a couple of them. Many in the sportsbooks will talk your ear off about how great they are but when you start keeping a log of the wins and losses it’s obvious they’re just as well off tugging on a slot machine.

The Godfather and GreyFox will be taking on the bulk of the college football at Tommy Dutch Sports. They’re on board because they share my passion and work ethic for finding winners. The Godfather is more technical and GreyFox is more fundamental but both have produced impressive winning percentages in recent seasons.

Here’s a tidbit from GreyFox:
A look at the Georgia Bulldogs

One of the interesting projections that has been a common theme in preseason publications is the expectations of the Georgia Bulldogs. Most pundits agree that this is a team poised for a run at a National Title. The opinion of almost all experts is that they will open the season ranked in the top 2 in the country. Mark Richt is a proven winner for the Bulldog nation, with a 72-19 (42-17 in the SEC) career mark at the helm. The young confident head coach has led the Georgia program to SEC titles in both 2002 and 2005. In watching the annual SEC media days from Birmingham, Alabama this month, I noticed that he was quite reserved about the upcoming season. Seeming to state the obvious…”Being a preseason #1 can be a great blessing to this program, or a tremendous burden, we’ll just have to see”.

Last season, while sitting in a local establishment on St. Simons Island GA., I watched the BCS selection show with great interest. There was obviously going to be a shake up with both the top ranked teams in the country going down in defeat in the final week. Georgia sat quietly in the bridesmaid chair, beckoning, “If both the teams in front of you lose, don’t you become the top ranked team in the country?” The BCS answered that question with a resounding “NO”. By failing to capture a conference championship, the Bulldogs opened the door for the LSU blowout over Ohio State, and the Bayou Bengals welcomed a National Championship trophy to Baton Rouge.

Georgia brings back a plethora of talent on both sides of the ball with 17 starters returning from the 11-2 2007 team. Former Georgia field general Mike Bobo took over the play calling duties prior to the 2006 Georgia Tech game and now has a full season under his belt. Having a former QB direct the offense can often spur on talent like their returning starter at that position, Matt Stafford. Stafford returns at the QB position with even more experience in big games. With a strong running attack to lean on, the Georgia faithful have great expectations for him this season. While the Offensive Line has huge size, they are young, and not particularly deep. They also lack in experience, as their 37 starts from returning players ranks 3rd lowest in the SEC. RB Knowshon Moreno looks to need only the slightest cracks to continue his burgeoning young career. Coming off a Freshman campaign that netted 1334 rushing yards at 5.4 yards per tote, Moreno had a solid spring, and looks to enter the fall campaign healthy, and with fresh legs. WR Mohamed Massaquoi is a formidable threat on the outside, and they do bring back some veteran talent in WR Kris Durham (JR) and TE Tripp Chandler (SR). Coach Richt seemed high on WR Demiko Goodman as an up and coming talent with great speed (SEC 400 meter track star). Defensively, well, defensively this team is loaded. They return 9 starters from a unit that allowed fewer than 21 points in 9 of their 13 contests, including holding a potent Hawaii offense to only 10 points in a meaningless Sugar Bowl. This unit allowed a stingy 3.3 yards per carry last season, most notably holding an explosive Oklahoma State offense to only 70 rushing yards over 34 carries in week 1. They will be big, extremely fast, and as hard hitting as ever, and barring injuries should match the numbers of the 2007 defense, if not improve slightly on them.

Where I see the largest concern for this program is not with the talent, which is rich and abundant. It does not lurk in the coaching staff, as Richt is a proven winner, and Defensive Coordinator Willie Martinez annually fields one of the top stop units in the country. Their most formidable opponent may lie in the schedule.

In order for this team to meet the National Championship expectations of the Bulldog faithful and the preseason predictions, they first have to beat Florida to win the SEC East. Then, if they can do that, they have to find a way to win road games at South Carolina, Arizona State (a potential tough early road contest in the desert), Defending National Champion LSU, ever improving Kentucky, and Auburn. Add to that the need to defeat Florida at a “neutral” site, Jacksonville FLORIDA, and the SEC Championship game played at a neutral site (which should bring a second contest with either Auburn, or LSU), and the task looks almost superhuman! Taking all preseason expectations aside, even the most faithful Georgia fan could only hope to win 5 of those 7 “non home” games. A closer inspection of Richts coaching record shows that 12 of his 17 losses have come away from the hedges of Athens.

Now the next question one might ask is “Can’t a team with two losses compete for a National Title, especially if they are an SEC Conference Champion?” My answer to that question for this season is NO. With the Big XXII looking especially strong this year (Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, and Texas Tech all look to be talent rich) and facing the same conference championship game scenario that the SEC representative will face, the winner there should only have one loss. Add to that the mix of potential unbeatens Southern California and Ohio State. Now sprinkle in the preseason darling Clemson out of a rebuilding ACC, and the task of reaching a title game with two losses looks to be a pipe dream.

Is this a special Georgia team? Are they capable of taking the mantle of a Preseason National Title contender and turn it into the fuel to fire them through that schedule? The most faithful in Athens may say yes, but me…well….10 wins would be a fantastic performance…a National Championship??? I wonder if this will hurt my golf privileges in Athens?